POSSIBLE POPES.
1T11° will be the next Pope ? We are not alone in putting
this question, and there are a great many persons con- siderably more interested in the answer than we are. At the same time, we may be quite as well informed on the matter as most people, and if Prince Bismarck and Dr. Cumming were inter- viewed upon the subject, it is probable that neither statesman nor seer would be able to give a much clearer account of the matter. What will be, will be, and when the time comes we shall know. Meanwhile, however, it may be interesting to collect the principal bits of gossip about the next Conclave, which have lately made themselves heard in a good many quarters. Besides, it may turn out that though it be impossible to tell the particular individual of the Sacred College who will be the next wearer of the Tiara, it may not be impossible to make a tolerably shrewd guess at the half-dozen individuals or so who stand the best chances of election, if nothing extraordinary supervene. Of course, there is also the fact to be taken into consideration that the choice of the Cardinals is not necessarily confined to the Sacred College, and that a creation of new Cardinals may occur any day.
It is only three years and a half since the Vatican Council assembled, and there have been already at least seven additional vacancies in the Cardinalate. Indeed, we believe that whereas the vacant hats were nineteen in December, 1869, they are twenty- eight to-day. Forty-nine Cardinals were alive at the time of the Vatican Council, besides two who were reserved in pelt°. The names which have disappeared are among the most venerable of the Sacred College,—the German Reisach, the French Billiet, &c., and Reisach especially, who died at the opening of the Council, en- joyed great consideration. It is not believed, however, that any of the deaths which have lately taken place have touched the circle of the likely candidates, and inasmuch as the vacancies have hap- pened pretty evenly at the expense of Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, the voting balance as between the different nationalities continues practically unaltered.
Naturally the question of nationality suggests itself in connec- tion with the Supreme Council of the International Church. From this point of view, there are not more than eleven non-Italians, namely, four French, Cardinals Pitra, Mathieu, Donnet, and De Bonnechose ; two or three Spaniards, Cardinals Moreno, De la Lastra y Cuesta, and if he be not dead recently, Garcia Cuesta ; two Austrians, Cardinals Rauscher and Schwarzenberg ; one Irish, Cardinal Cullen ; and one German, Cardinal Hohenlohe. Cardinal Pitra is reputed to be the most learned member of the Sacred College. He has no experience, however, of affairs. Among the others, Cardinals Rauscher, Schwarzenberg, and Cullen are thought to possess the greatest influence, the first and third for their learn- ing as canoeists, and the second for his distinguished rank and authority at the Austrian Court. The German Cardinal Hohenlohe is supposed to be a favourite of Prince Bismarck's, and his chances can be estimated accordingly. If Reisach had lived, Germany might have been in the running, especially as it is understood that great pressure will be exercised by the Cabinets of Berlin and Vienna to procure the election of a non-Italian Pontiff. We have the strongest reason to suspect, however, that the merits or demerits of all the foreign Cardinals may be left wholly out of view, inas- much as it is a practical certainty that whenever Pius IX. dies another Italian will succeed him. And so far is this the case, that the able young Cardinal Bonaparte, though reckoned a purely Italian Cardinal, and being a purely Roman Prince, is universally regarded as disqualified, in consequence of his foreign associations. We can, accordingly, afford to eliminate the foreign Cardinals from our list altogether as candidates, although they must be allowed to possess great influence as voters.
Coming to the Italian Cardinals, a further elimination is demanded by the infirmities of a number of the most esteemed members of the Sacred College. Thus, Cardinal Barnabo, Prefect of Propaganda, is blind ; Cardinal Patrizi, Dean of the Sacred College, is seventy-five years of age ; Cardinal de Angelis, who might otherwise stand the very best chance, is eighty-one. Among the class of confirmed invalids may be reckoned the Cardinals Grassellini, Cateriui, Bizzarri, Vannicelli, Amat, and Asquini. Their youth might be expected to exclude Cardinal Bilio, who is only forty-seven, and Cardinel Lavelletta, who is only forty-six. It is possible, however, that a Pontiff with a fair pro- spect of long life before him would not be displeasing in the present difficulties of the Church, and as Cardinal Bilio is in other respects in the front rank among his hatted brethren, we would not speak lightly of his chance. The quasi-lay character and pursuits of the diplomatic Cardinal Deacon Antonelli, render the rumours which, in a good many quar- ters, have attached themselves to his name, not only erroneous, but absurd. Among the couple of dozen who remain, Cardinals Di Pietro, Riario-Sforza, Morichini, Sacconi, Panebianco, and Capalti — together with Bilio, just named —include, we hear from many quarters, the most probable winners at the Pontifical election. There are thus just seven, out of the total forty-four or forty-five, who may be considered as likely candidates.
At this point, we feel a semi-universal interrogatory arising. How many of the seven are Jesuits, and which is likely to unite the votes of the Jesuit party in the Sacred College ? In reply, we may state that, in the first place, there is neither a Jesuit nor an ex-Jesuit among the favoured seven ; and in the second place— and we confess to a little disappointment on this score—there is neither a Jesuit nor an ex-Jesuit in the entire Cardinalate. AU the Cardinals are " Red " Cardinals, with the exception of three, Panebianco, Pitra, and Guidi. Cardinal Bilio is in- deed a Barnabite, but the Barnabites are not a monastic order. There are, accordingly, only three monks in the Sacred College, namely, the " white " or Dominican Cardinal Guidi ; the " slate- coloured " or Franciscan (minor Conventual) Cardinal Panebianco ; and the " black " or Benedictine Cardinal Pitra. Prince Bis- marck may congratulate himself in consequence that the Jesuits are likely to be nowhere at the next election, or if they be all the more powerful because invisible, when it comes to invisibility we are afraid we must leave matters to Mr. Newdegate. Among the seven, Riario-Sforza, the Cardinal-Archbishop of Naples, would, perhaps, be most pleasing to the Italian Liberals. It is not for- gotten how he gave the horses from his carriage for the war against the Austrian in 1848. Riario-Sforza is a staunch de- fender of the Temporal Power, however, as well as of the Vatican Decree. One word as to the Veto which used to be exercised by France, Spain, Austria, and Bavaria, and which is at present claimed by Germany, on the ground of the large number of Catholic Germans. It is certain that, though the Cardinals may be influenced by it, they will decline to admit it, on the ground that, "as the State has repudiated its duties, the State has forfeited its privileges." With special regard to the German plea, based on the interests of the Catholic subjects of Germany, it will be main- tained that the same plea would hold equally good in the mouth of the Queen of England or the President of the United States. As we heard a Churchman express it, "The Emperor of China will claim a veto next ;" nor, in that case, should the Sultan and the Mikado be left out in the cold. Certainly, if Prince Bismarck and Sefior Castelar are to have a voice in the next Conclave, it is hard to see why Mr. Gladstone should be silent.
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