24 OCTOBER 1908, Page 5

AUSTRIA-HUNGARY AND THE PUBLIC LAW OF EUROPE.

TAST week we speculated on the dangers which .4 Austria-Hungary has raised for herself by setting the whole Slavonic world. of South-Eastern Europe by the ears. Good fortune more than good management may make the problem less formidable than we think it likely to be. There is at least some room for skill in the manipulation of the circumstances, and some scope for the favouring hand of accident ; but where there will be no room at all for modification is in what we may call the political moral of Europe. In a few weeks, perhaps in a few days, we shall know whether the rulers of Austria- Hungary mean hopelessly, to compromise that moral by robbing Europe of all confidence in the value of the written word of international Agreements. It will be difficult to exaggerate the degree of uncertainty and nervous- ness which Austria-Hungary will have introduced into European affairs if she decides on the worst of the courses that are still open to her. It is a regrettable fact that one Power alone should be able to put all the others into a state of. tension, not only disagreeable, but dangerous and expensive. Yet so it is ; and all that the others can do who stand to suffer by it is to point out the retrograde and anti-European character of an act which produces all this disquiet, and, if possible, to reduce its intensity and. its radius of operation. The issue has been a good deal narrowed by the negotiations of the last few days, and it is still possible to save from the wreckage a point very important to Europe.

When Bulgaria announced her independence, and Austria-Hungary the annexation of Bosnia and Herze- govina, there was of course the risk of an immediate conflagration. That risk has become less, at all events so far as it concerns the principals. Turkey, with a restraint which cannot be praised too highly, has refused to precipitate a European war in spite of all provocation. There is no longer a question whether Austria-Hungary shall be allowed to annex the provinces, or whethet Bulgaria shall be independent ; those things are universally recognised to be accomplished facts. They can be palliated, in some way more or less fair to Turkey, but there is no suggestion or hope that they can be undone. A Conference, therefore, would proceed on the assumption that an alteration of the European situation which was already de facto was certainly in future to be held as de jure. That is what we mean by saying that the issue has been narrowed. And surely a sanctioning of their enterprise—to give it no harsher name for the moment— is precisely what both Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria ought to desire. Their chief demands are not called in question at all ; Austria-Hungary, as one of the signatories of the Treaty of Berlin, is only requested to join in a Con- ference in order to regularise the situation, as the French say,—in order to substitute another European document for that which she has torn up.

Let us understand clearly what injury she will do to Europe if she refuses to join in a Conference. By declining to be a party to the substitution of a new Treaty for the Treaty of Berlin she will, in effect, say that in her opinion no Agreement is necessary to govern the situation in South-Eastern Europe, and that it is better for every country to be a law unto itself. But although that would be bad enough, and would keep that part of Europe in effervescence indefinitely, there is something much worse behind. The refusal of Austria-Hungary would mean that one of the Great Powers seriously regards a formal docu- ment, hitherto binding on all the European signatories, as not worth the paper it is written on. Think to what con- clusions the logic of such a contention leads. Civilisation would be set back by nearly a, hundred years. The present generation has been accustomed to think of all the difficulties of international dealings as belonging entirely to the stage of negotiation. When an agreement was reached, and was "signed, sealed, and delivered," the subject of which it treated was regarded as removed from the field of dispute. Other differences might cause anxiety, but that one, at least, was settled. But if Austria-Hungary refuses to justify her action at a Con- ference, or to ask for its sanction of the new situation, it will be impossible in future to look upon any question as settled. It will be enough for any State to find its obliga- tions too onerous, or too inconvenient, for it to renounce them. The policy of Austria-Hungary, in fact, would be more than a single violation of the public law of Europe ; it would be a denial of the existence of any public law at all. This moral fact overshadows all others. We do not pretend that a very material injury has so far been done to Turkey ; Bulgaria was already virtually independent, and Bosnia and Herzegovina belonged to Austria-Hungary for all practical purposes. But the injury which will be done to the world of civilised man if Austria-Hungary declines to join the Conference will be very material,— indeed, beyond all estimate. It will be useless to school ourselves in all the virtues of patient diplomacy and national self-restraint, in order to understand other countries and come to terms with them, if agreements when reached are to mean nothing. The history of the Hague Conference and all its promises of more effectual measures in the future will be wiped off the slate. The value of the simplest protocols and commercial agreements will be reduced by ninety per cent., for no man will be certain that he can trust them. It is so difficult to think of Europe living in such an atmosphere as we have described that we must refuse to believe in the ultimate recusancy of Austria-Hungary. When the facts are faced the cynicism of no statesman will be allowed to go so far. The danger which threatens us is of such a destruction of public confidence that there would be nothing less than a revolution in international relations. Is that to be brought about by the most conservative Power in Europe? We cannot believe it.

There is another consideration. Germany is the ally of Austria-Hungary, and some of the reports credit her with the intention of supporting Austria-Hungary in any course whatever. That might be mistaken for the generous act of a. faithful friend, but even private friendship cannot legitimately be put before Treaties. Alliances are obviously conditioned by the obligations of the parties to other countries. The German Emperor's desire for the tran- quillity of Europe could not demonstrate itself better than in good advice to Austria-Hungary as to the absolute European necessity, so to speak, of joining in the Confer- ence. The German Emperor is in a better position than any one to do Europe the service of pointing out to his ally that if the invitation to the Conference were declined, the heaviest blow at public confidence would have been struck that any living person can remember. We are not pessimistic. The method of removing all danger is so clear that we believe Austria-Hungary will adopt it. It is not the part of great men to play with the explosives which chance has put in their hands. In Paris a Congress on the Moroccan question ended lately in the drafting of a " forward " policy, one of the principles of which is that advantage should be taken of the present uncertainty so favourable to bargaining. This may be well enough for irresponsible politicians, but it is just the state of mind which cannot be indulged in by honest men who bear responsibility. Englishmen have not revered the aged Emperor Francis Joseph for so long without very good reason, and we cannot think now that the end of his honourable reign will be stained by a continued policy of breaking the public law of Europe.