New forces in Ulster
Throughout the last two years of trouble in Ulster visitors to the province have looked in vain for a break in the sectarian character of its politics. Miss Devlin's victory in Mid-Ulster did not provide one: for all her rhetoric about the exploitation of the Protestant and Catholic working class alike, she was returned to West- minster because the solid Catholic vote in her constituency narrowly outnum- bered the solid Protestant vote. Last week, in the Stormont by-elections at Bannside and South Antrim, the break came at last. In Bannside the Protestant vote was split between Mr Paisley and the official Unionist candidate. In South Antrim, even more significantly, the independent candi- date, Mr Corkey, must have won a sub- stantial number of Catholic votes to add to those of liberal Protestants to drive the official Unionist, Mr Morgan, into second place behind Mr Paisley's colleague Mr Beattie. And such are the ironies of Ulster politics that the only consequence has been to render a tense situation more dangerous. For if ever there was a case of the best being the enemy of the eood, this was it.
Mr Morgan. a determined opponent of Lord O'Neill's premiership, was not an appealing standard-bearer in the eyes of liberal Unionists. Notwithstanding his pledge of loyalty to Major Chichester- Clark his record hardly inspired confid- ence in his commitment to reform. Thus he was an obvious target for the New Ulster Movement, the latest addition to the galaxy of Ulster political groups. which seeks to represent 'aggressive moderation' and to draw its strength equally from both religious camps. The movement cele- brated Mr Corkey's considerable achieve- ment in winning more than a quarter of the votes cast in South Antrim by this week inaugurating the Alliance party, which announced its intention to fight forty-five Stormont seats at the next Northern Ireland general election. But the result of Mr Corkey's intervention was to secure the return to Stormont, not of a moderate, but of Mr Beattie.
The New Ulster Movement argues that if the choice lies between a Paisleyite and a Unionist opponent of reform. it is pre- ferable that a Paisleyite should be elected: for the time has come for the reformers to stand up and be counted. Its hope is that the knowledge that right-wing Unionists will be opposed by candidates of the Alli- ance party will induct the, government party to adopt reformers. But it also looks forward to a time when the citizens of the six counties will face a straight choice between 'Protestant Unionists' (i.e. Paisley- ites) and its own candidates. This is the sheerest wishful thinking. The sectarian tradition is too strong to enable a non- sectarian party to win seats: all it can hope to do is to drive the voters into the arms of more extreme candidates. And even if its expectations were ever fulfilled, the Alliance would certainly be beaten by Mr Paisley.
Already last week's by-elections place Major Chichester-Clark's leadership in jeopardy. Even if the Prime Minister manages to survive, the task he faces in keeping up the pace of reform is made yet more difficult. His chances of survival are enhanced by the absence of any gener- ally acceptable alternative. But meantime many Unionist mPs at Westminster arc going to have an uphill task to secure re- adoption (and, in some cases, re-election if they are adopted). This niay not worry Mr Wilson. It should. The NUM niay be an admirable development in so far as it tries to represent moderate opinion of both sects and none. But it is not in a very good position to denounce Mr Paisley and his followers as fascists when it has been responsible for providing them with a parliamentary base. Its members no doubt faced an uphill task in attempting to re- form the Unionist party from within : but from outside its impact can only drive the province further to the right.
Perhaps the crucial issue now is whether those who believe that the only hope for Ulster lies in the suspension of the Stor- mont Parliament are right. Elsewhere in this issue Mr Hogg dismisses both the suspension of Stormont and the reunifica- tion of Ireland on the grounds that either would lead to serious bloodshed. But the two propositions are not on all fours. Few of the citizens of Ulster—few even of the Catholics—now favour reunification with the south. Reunification with Westminster commands wider support (and it is worth recalling that the Stormont system was originally imposed on a reluctant province by a Westminster government which hoped it would ultimately lead to reuni- fication of the whole island within the United Kingdom). Northern Ireland is an anomaly in a unitary system, and the Protestant majority should find reassur- ance in the prospect of integration with the Protestant majority in Great Britain.
The by-election victories of Mr Paisley and his colleague Mr Beattie demon- strated the extent of the present mistrust of Westminster among Protestants in Northern Ireland. A takeover by West- minster at the present time would run the risk of creating something akin to a civil war situation. This, certainly, seems to be the view of the New Ulster Movement itself. But in part at least this reflects mistrust among Protestants about the British Labour party's intentions (the Ulstermen are not alone in overestimat- ing the importance of Mr George Brown). The reaction to a takeover by a Conserva- tive Government might be rather different. Meanwhile it would be far better that the present Unionist leadership in Stormont should carry on with reform as it has pledged itself to do.
Ulster has been led since partition by a land-owning class who have limited first- hand experience of the problems of bad housing and high unemployment suffered by the poorer Protestants and Catholics alike. But this leadership is now dedicated to political reform. Mr Paisley and Miss Devlin are more interested in violence than reform. The first priority for all who want to avert the real threat of viol- ence is to show solidarity with the forces of reform. The NUM may be non-sectarian. It is playing straight into the hands of those who are.
The Ulster Unionist party is admittedly a leaky vessel of reform. Most of its mem- bers at Stormont are of low calibre, and most of them are under continuous pres- sure from their constituency associations to halt the reforms. Of their leaders some, who are ecnuinely committed to reform, are at odds with their constituents, while others contrive to face in two directions. Yet the Unionist government, aware of its dependence on the goodwill of West- minster. is doing its best to remove the cause of grievance in the province. If Major Chichester-Clark falls and is re- placed by a Prime Minister determined to drag his feet, then it will be time for Mr Bradford and Mr Porter and the others on the left of the party to make common cause with the Alliance Party—if by then Westminster has not already taken over the reins of power. But unless and until this happens the Unionist party still offers ' the best hope for peaceful progress in Northern Ireland.
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