However the Russo-German Pact is to be interpreted, It promises
to have not unimportant reactions on British naval strategy. In a brief survey given privately not long ago by a high naval authority of the probable position on the outbreak of war, two causes for some anxiety were mentioned. One was the Far East ; every confidence was expressed in the impregnability of Singa- pore, but east of that base it would be difficult to deal with Japan if she joined in a war against us; the signature of an agreement which runs counter to the Anti-Comintern Pact, the basis of Japan's association with the Axis Powers, clearly reduces the likelihood of active Japanese intervention. The other doubtful spot was Gibraltar, which it would be diffi- cult or impossible for us to utilise if Spain allied herself with the Axis Powers. Her determination to remain neutral has already been announced with some show of authority, and it will certainly be greatly strengthened by the new associa- tion of Germany with Russia, for if there is anywhere in Europe where hatred of Bolshevism is implacable it is in General Franco's Spain. Those are not the only ways in which the pact may prove a boomerang. On the other hand if, as seems unlikely, Turkey's adhesion to the Peace Front is in any way shaken, we shall not, as we hoped, be relieved of all anxiety about the Dardanelles.
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