AS 1936 ENDS
TN his 'review of the international situation before the House of Commons adjourned last Friday, Mr. Eden felt justified in striking a note of cautious optimism. It amounted to little more than saying that the position of this country in the world was less unfavourable than it had been a year ago, but that is better at least than saying it was less favour- able. When the Versailles settlement began to crumble 1935 was always looked on as the year. of crisis. The world got through 1935 without a European war. It has got through 1986 without a war. Even the Spanish civil war has so far 'been confined to Spain, in spite of the perils springing from the active partisanship of Germany, Italy and Russia. Apart from Spain the world, that enters 1987 is still a world at peace.
What is more, over large sections Of the world the peace is stable and deep-rooted. It is going very little too far to say that war has been banished from the whole of the Western Hemisphere. Even in Europe, where the embers of potential conflict smoulder unextinguished, the peaceful States are increasingly tenacious of peace and increasingly determined to deter aggressors in advance, _ even though it involves them in disastrous expenditure on armaments for which there ought to be no need and no excuse. From the Pyrenees -through two- thirds of a circle right round through Scandinavia to' the- Turkish - shores - of, the Mediterranean lies a rink-of-States—France, Britain;- the Lovi,Countries, the Scandinavian• States, the Baltic' republics,- SOviet Russia,- Turkey—from none ofwhich is any aggresSive move to be looked for. None of theni seeks ten itorial expansion. None of them desires anything but to develop its internal economy in peace.
Throughout by far the greater part of the Continent the main purpose is the consolidation of peace: The relations between this country and France have never ,beed more cordial nor the understanding more complete. That, -more than any other single factor, has been responsible for the' successful localisa- tion of the Spanish civil. ware -1!he understanding extends to Belgium and Holland and makes the relations between the four Western' States every- thing that the relations between States "should be. In the East the same process -is in operation:. - Russia has no external ambitions and is feared by' no one, not even by Germany, which is actively developing trade relations with the Soviet Union in spite of the fulminations Herr Hitler -and his -Ministers find 'it necessary to deliver against the Bolshevism Windt Russia is steadily abandoning. A collision between Russia and Germany is made increasingly improbable. by 'the close understanding developed•- between the- buffer States of Poland and Rumania, now in eOrdial alliance, with plans for military co-operation fully Con- certed between them. Under Colonel Beck Poland's foreign policy has been- equivocal----her geographical' situation gives considerable -'exctiSe kir* that—hut the Foreign Minister's declarations • • of last week evince a very proper deterniinatiOn to maintain the country's independence-- ,of -both Germany and Russia, and lend no -support to either country against the other.. Poland is as much opposed to a war :of ideologies as, Britain.
to normal relations with this country. It was she • In the south - Italy is manifestly anxious to ,return who made them abnormal, and it is not to be pre- tended that there idir be any condonation by British public opinion of Italy's breaches of treaty and her rape of Abyssinia. But correct 'dipIonnitic 'relations are possible, and to be desired. AntagdniSin' in the Mediterranean will help neither country. Both have to use that highway, and it profits neither to deny it to the other. Here, 'again, the position is definitely better than a year ago,' when open antagonigni•existed between Britain and 'Italy, and we could count only on reluctant and uncertain backing from the riefiCh.
Since then the unlimited support of -France 'ha s been pledged to this country in the case of any UnprOtoked aggression. • There is, in 'fact, one :quarter. milY iii Europe from -Which the 'danger of war is apprehended. That, of course, is G-ermany, and 'no' good purpose is served by disguising the fact. Germany todaY is country organised for -War. Every country • is re- arming, but nowhere is rearmament and the Potential mobilisation of the whole population Made the predominant purpose as it is inGermany.',AreYS.4 thing is being- sacrificed to that. A militaiY Writer has disclosed' thatthe Whole Four Years plan is reallY designed to .serve military ends. The PedPle ire-told that guns are better than butter, and they are being deprived of a greatIdeal besides butter in order that Germany may be made the greateSeinilitary Power in Europe. Why ? Germany is 'tifkiened'.by' one. No State has ambitions to be 'Satisfied at ter- expense. What .inibitions does she aim at satisfying herself? • That is the unanswered question On which the pre- servation-Of 'the pekoe of Europe depends.' It may be that it Will be answered satisfactorily', for Ger- many's self-iinposed isolation, the disquiet caused by her military intervention in Spain, the suspicions aroused by her agreement with Japan, the universal lack of enthusiasm for her anti-Bolshevik campaign, are producing visible uneasiness in Germany itself: But the regime is abncirmal and periodical.
d'etat seem essential to its existence. 'None' -is 'to be expected the West, but theOrganis. ed'and completely. unwarranted attacks on Czechoslnyalita by the 'controlled German Press ire a symptom not to be Made 'light of: There is a considerable German-speaking (formerlY Austrian, never German) population in Czechoslovakia, but it is by nO 'means wholly Nazi and the Government is right td'reject the claim of the majority; 'the Sudetendentkeh, to speak exclusively for majority and Minority'. coma bined. -None of the new States of Europe is More genuinely democratic than Czechoslovakia; Under its 'distinguished Presidents; -MasarYk • and • Belies, and although -the Germans of the country may still have some grieVandes that deserve attention- there would be no trouble of any kind but for encourage, ment from outside. It may be hoped that the. fact that the eyes of Europe are on CzechoslOVakia as a -possible object Of German aggression direct or indirect will in itself check any such intention if it exists. Germany's attitude towards' the long- discussed conference of the Locarno Powers is still undisclosed ; it is believed that Herr Ribbentrop has gone to Berchtesgaden for conversations on that point with Herr Hitler. If Germany is now ready to enter on that conference with an open mind she will be taking the best course to secure fair consideration of any grievances she may wish to -put forward, and doing something substantial to make 1987 a better year than 1936 for herself and the rest of Europe.
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