Sir: Professor Vaizey's analysis (December 11) of Ulster falls sadly
Wide of the mark. The first point to be made about Ulster is that for
the past three years it has been the scene of the most serious and bloody communal tension seen in Western Europe since the second world war — indeed with the exception of the Greek civil war and the Hungarian uprising the most violent and protracted crisis in the whole of Europe since 1945. Why? Primarily, of course, because the six-county Ulster created in 1920 could only be maintained by gerrymandering. Initially unwilling to accept a separate parliament Ulstermen came to see in Stormont the best guarantee of their Protestant liberties. (The historic nine-county Ulster was insufficiently Protestant, the NE fourcounty Ulster too small to be sufficiently independent i.e. economically). Even today that very subtle political animal the Rev Ian Paisley sees Stormont as the only guarantee of the liberties enjoyed under the Williamite Revolution. And, of course, the truth is that Stormont is the only guarantee of Protestant liberties. Any reform of Stormont will make Ulster less of a confessional state. Stormont will cease to be a Protestant parliament for a Protestant people. The CraigBoal-Paisley critique of reformism is historically true just as the High Tory critique of 1832 (e.g. Croker — that it will lead to democracy and levelling) was historically correct. A reformed Stormont will be a Stormont in which Catholics may obtain a majority. What if such a parliament were to vote in favour of unification? What would Protestants do? Become rebels? Presumably. If so, then as Craigavon and Catson recognised, the final battle will be between the loyalists and the Crown. Ultimately Ulster must be coerced. That is the lesson of all Irish history. We must hope that Ulster will be coerced now.
In this sense IRA terrorism is neither senseless nor irrational. It aims at bringing about a runningdown of Ulster life. In that it is succeeding. Partly because of intimidation, partly because of sympathy, the Catholic population at .large supports the IRA. Their major reason is, however, the knowledge that if the IRA is beaten and the Army withdrawn, the ghettoes will be left exposed to Protestant vigilantes. Thus the IRA will not be beaten. Their campaign will be stepped up. Assassinations will follow — Stormont Cabinet Ministers, perhaps even our own PM. Do not underestimate the ruthlessness of the IRA. Eventually we will come to recognise that Ulster must be coerced. The mistake of 1886, 1912 and 1921 will not be made. There will be no Randolph Churchill, Carson or Craig to speak for Ulster. As Mr Macpherson recognises, there is now a new Tory party which does not care at all for Ulster. The Raisons, the Tugendhats, the Jessels and the Hayhoes have no interest in or ideas about Ulster. Their concerns are purely socioeconomic. There is no Balfour, no Long, no Boner Law. Even the PM has no ideas about Ulster. He wishes only to be rid of the incubus. The sell-out he will produce will surpass even the betrayals over Rhodesia or Europe. Secretary of State Maudling simply is nonplussed. He is shocked that people believe strongly enough in anything to kill or be killed. The i only word to describe him s fainéant. Wilson and Callaghan deplore violence, yet every action of the ' gunmen ' drives them into
a more radical policy. Neither party cares to defend Ulster. Ulster may fight, but this time she will be in the wrong (at least in the eyes of the PM and Wilson). Compton shows how the NI question is beginning to pollute political life. The clamour fol ..–asorship shows this also. Secretary of State Maudling's position is eroded daily. He is clearly one victim of the 'gunmen.' As usual we will give in to the ' gunmen' (of India, Palestine, Kenya, Cyprus and Aden). NI is no more part of the UK than Algeria was part of France. Partition will fail as it has failed in India. Protestants will have to learn to live in Ulster as part of Eire rather than as part of the UK. Who knows? They may find they like it. In precisely the same way the Zionist Israelis will have to be merged into a nonsectarian Palestine. (As a child of RC parents, I can see the analogy.)
Professor Vaizey is a fool if he thinks that the Ulstermen will not be beaten by the gunmen. The Ulster bluff must be called now. It will be seen for the sham it is. If Ulster rises, it will be alone. It will get no comfort from this country. The Provisionals will give a good account of themselves. Ulster will cease to exist as a part of the UK. It will become part of a united Ireland. It is the task of British statesmanship to ensure that this happens. If we do not do this, our children will have to. Today Ruari O'Bradaigh appears as a more credible figure than Faulkner. I submit that the British government is supporting the wrong side at the wrong time in the wrong place. Stuart B. Weinbaum 23 Richmond Road, Cambridge
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