THE MILITARY SITUATION.
AVE have at length passed the dead point in the war. If one imagines the military operations as a great steam engine fantastically slow in action, we have an illustration of what has just happened. Some enaineers doubted whether there was enough steam in the boiler °to make the huge crank turn over the dead point. We have all watched the crank labouring up to the critical moment where it must have a margin of impulse to turn it over that dead point. We have looked on holding our breath. But the point is passed ; the crank swings smoothly on in a fresh stride ; the new steam that was being got up was not too late. The dead point was safely passed at Verdun. Of that there can no longer be any doubt. Speed was the essence of the German scheme, and now that weeks have slipped away since the phalanx first plunged forwards at Verdun, we can confidently write that the Germans have suffered the greatest reverse they have experienced in the war. It is a reverse greater than that of the Manic, because it has a greater psychological value. At the Marne the Germans received a shocking surprise, but their Staff in arrogant confidence thought that it was a temporary check which would soon be swallowed up in victory. This time—at Verdun—they know very well that they had staked everything on the throw ; that they could no longer afford to lose. Having failed in these circumstances their dejection must be the greater. All the signs indicate that this is so. The German nation and the German Army are war-weary. We hear of depression in the Army and of riots in Berlin. In both cases we make allowances for exaggeration, but report says that the last riots in Berlin were not mere " bread riots "—not a rabble of women screaming in the streets that they could no longer put up with their domestic hardships—but a mob of people demanding that their husbands, sons, and brothers should be saved from the slaughter. The motive of the peace-riot is a vastly uglier and more angry thing than the rage of women who are out of patience with empty shops and the system of bread-tickets. Let us be sure not to exaggerate ; we do not pretend to believe that the Germans are on the point of such a collapse as the world saw in 1806. When their resistance failed then it went with a run. Such a thing might conceivably happen again, but we should be mad indeed to reckon on it. We are much more inclined to believe that we have a long period of fighting still before us in which we shall need every man we can put in the field and every penny we can raise to meet the financial strain. But we believe, none the less, that the Allies have now " got " the Germans. Ai a distinguished sailor said after the Verdun failure, " The Germans are like a lot of rats in a racket court. They have still got plenty of room to rim about—but there they are ! " If the Allies do not commit great military mistakes, the Germans cannot get out of the racket court. They will rush madly at the walls ' and try to climb them or try to bite holes under the door, but there will have to be very bad blundering indeed some- where if they are allowed to escape. The image might be developed. further, because the walls of the racket court are not fixed. They are gradually closing in like the walls of the room in Poe's story. On technical military grounds we have seen nothing more encouraging than the glorious French resistance at Verdun. For the French fought under conditions which would have made failure excusable for all but troops that have the very genius of winning. The Germans drove back the defenders at first ; they even gained a point which, if it had been held, would have upset the whole French scheme of defence ' • they, moreover, attacked a position which was a precarious salient in the French line ; and they seemed, finally, to have an excellent chance of cutting off the French who were—and, of course, still are—on the right bank of the Meuse. In all they failed. Their successes were no greater than it is open to any army to win which masses an enormous' number of guns at one point, annihilates the front-line trenches before them, and is willing to lose a huge proportion of the infantry sent forward to occupy the ground shattered and disfigured by high explosives. The Germans make great play verbally with such " successes " in this sense as they have won, but the world is not deceived. Through all neutral countries the news of the great German failure, fully recog- nized as such, is resounding. We shall soon see the results in the changed attitude of several small neutral nations. The doctrine of German military invincibility, which was held by the Staffs of nearly all the small countries of Europe, is exploded. Verdun is the don of the situation, but everywhere else, except in Mesopotamia, the hopes of the Allies run high. The Germans admit that the Russians are already embarked upon a " great offensive." South of Dvinsk, in the lake district, the Russians are advancing and taking prisoners, and north of Dvinsk there are the first premonitions of an advance. On the Dniester the Russians have struck a hard blow against the Austrians, who have recoiled, and if this advance can be continued the effect upon the policy of Roumania is sure to be great. Already the star of the Germanophil party in Roumania is dropping in the sky. We may yet see it set for ever. At Salonika the position continually improves. Germany and Bulgaria never had more sound reasons for attacking a place than they have had for attacking Salonika. Evidently they had not enough strength, or they hesitated too long. Now it is too late. Salonika lies impregnably on the flank of the cherished German line of advance to the East. But that is not all. While the Allies' Army at Salonika grows in strength and confidence, the German and Bulgarian troops have plenty of leisure to develop their debilitating mistrust of each other. The Bulgarians, in particular, are bound to deteriorate. This is what always happens when the great Army of a small State is kept in the field for a comparatively long time. A balance between the fighting strength and the industrial productivity of such a country never existed from the beginning. The great Army of the little State must make war rapidly or fail. The Bulgarians are already seized with misgivmp, and more and more they will lay their distresses and anxieties at the door of their overhearing German task- masters. Very different is the moral atmosphere at Salonika, where the goodwill of the Greeks responds sensitively to the changing military situation, and where the Allied Army will soon be increased by the restored, rested, and re-equipped Serbian Array of well over one hundred thousand men— soldiers incited by an unquenchable thirst to be up and at the hated and treacherous Bulgars. The time is at hand when there will be a revolution of the military situation in the Balkans. The balance of military power there will be turned finally to the advantage of the Allies.
The danger to Egypt has virtually vanished. The German- led Turks may try a movement in the desert if the water remains in the wells, but there is no longer a fear that it may be a grave peril. The Turks, hounded by the Russians in Armenia and Persia, can no longer spare men for fancy enter- prises. And the defences of Egypt are much stronger than before, now that works have been thrown out into the desert east of the Canal. As for the German colonies, only one, East Africa, remains in the possession of Germany, and that will soon be ours. A study of the Italian operations against Austria adds something further to the credit of the Allies. If the Italians (who have had to climb snow-bound mountains, and endure in places where fighting by means of setting avalanches loose comes more naturally than bomb-throwing) have not made great progress as measured on the map, they may be sure that their friends appreciate their difficulties and admire their high spirit. They have held engaged a considerable portion of the Austrian Army, and their lines are everywhere on Austrian soil. Not an Italian, we believe, has been killed in Italy, except by bombs from the air. We welcome the gallant Italian Commander-in-Chief to England, and we are certain that the plans he is now discussing with the Imperial Staff will be executed to the glory of Italy when the snows disappear from the mountains of the frontier.
The one dark spot in the picture is the campaign in Mesopo- tamia. The difficulties were underestimated ; the transport scheme broke down and failed to convey the stores from Basra to the front ; the Government of India had shouldered a heavier burden than they could carry, or, at least, than they had made preparations to carry. In any case, General Townshend may be relied upon to hold out at Kut till the last possible minute. It was not by accident that he greatly distinguished himself at Chitral. His spirits cannot be quenched. The advance of the Russians has been so rapid that it seems possible, after all, that relief may come from them. But in any event the bungle in Mesopotamia, whether retrieved or not, cannot affect the situation as a whole.
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