25 NOVEMBER 1949, Page 18

Groundnuts Gloom

SIR,—Continuing Mr. Frederick Jellinek's letter, may I add that even more incredible than "the ignorance of the original planners" is the way in which the optimistic estimates of this and other nationalisation plans have been accepted by Parliament. It is inconceivable that experienced civil servants did not know as well as many outsiders that the Health Service estimates, for example, were wildly out, and so with other schemes. Had realistic estimates been presented—for which, in most cases, there were pretty reliable outside guesses—it is probable that even this Parliament would have refused to countenance the nationalisa- tion adventures. The technique of introduction has followed a regular pattern—denigration and *valuation of the assets and grossly optimistic estimates of the benefits and returns. The Opposition has certainly squealed about the former (except in the case of the doctors' goodwill) but has sadly failed to convince Parliament or the nation about the latter. Odd voices have been raised, but Parliament and Press have given vastly more weight to Ministerial estimates than was their due, and the present parlous state of the country and lack of faith in politicians are the result.