THE PRESS

Polls apart

BILL GRUNDY

It was that wild old man, the Sage of Ecclefechan, who once asked 'How can I believe in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance?' To be sure, Thomas Carlyle never was much of a democrat, and its just the sort of thing he would say. But I have to admit that, although it's at least thirty years since I first read the remark, I've never been able to work out a completely satis- factory answer to it. At the same time, I wonder if any newspaper editors have ever come across it? If they had, would they be quite so keen on the investigations of individual ignorance which so frequently fill their pages these days? I refer of course to the opinion polls which scatter their statistics around like grapeshot, and with much the same result as far as I am con- cerned—I simply get my head down until it has all passed over.

On second thoughts I don't think that simile is a good one. It's not so much like a whift of grapeshot, but more like a ride on a switchback. because the effect on me is precisely the same. After being subjected to it I feel distinctly hazy.

For example, way back in September-- which must be all of six long weeks ago—

the Daily Mail's National Opinion Poll was telling me 'Tories leap ahead again'. The analysis showed that the Tories then had a lead over Labour of 18.8 per cent compared with one of only 15.5 per cent three weeks earlier. It attributed the fall in Labour's standing to the wide criticism of the Govern- ment at last week's ruc conference'.

Well, that's plai-i enough, whether or not you believe it. But the very same poll that told me of the Tories' Great Leap Forward also told me that the popularity of both Mr Heath and Mr Wilson was on the up- swing. Now these two findings may very well be reconcilable, but my unconquerable stupidity left me considerably baffled by them.

To clear things up therefore I decided to take a look at what the Gallup Poll, pub- lished in the Daily Telegraph, was saying.

It was a mistake. For while the NOF' was announcing that in mid-September 40 per

cent of the nation was satisfied with Mr

Heath, the Gallup figure for the same time was 32 per cent. While the NOP said that 46

per cent were satisfied with Mr Wilson, Gallup declared that the figure was 39 per cent. Bemused beyond belief now—for surely these are highly scientific methods of measuring public opinion?-1 decided in my pragmatic way that there must have been something odd about September. Since October has been a much nicer month all round, let's have a look at that.

The Daily Telegraph, I decided, should be my only source—no mucking about with

others. I opened the issue of 8 October, therefore, and read with interest the head- line 'Tories are failing to convince'. That I could believe, so I looked at the next day's

Telegraph. The headline there said 'Labour record needed to win election'. The opening

paragraph read 'Can Labour seriously hope to win the next general election? A Gallup analysis undertaken for the Daily Telegraph suggests that while the task cannot be regarded as impossible, Labour will have to break records if it is to achieve victory.'

Tories unconvincing ; Labour need record swing to win? So who's going to get in—the Liberals?

But even worse was to come. For lower down in that same Telegraph article came a remark about the 'Conservative lead of 9.5

per cent as published in the Gallup Poll in the Daily Telegraph of September 17'. At

this point my resolution wavered. I simply

had to go back and remind myself what the NOP was saying about the Tory lead in mid-

September. Yes, I thought I wasn't wrong ; 18.8 per cent according to the Daily Mail of 11 September. Then I saw that the actual poll had taken place between 3 and 8 September.

At last all was clear. At the beginning of September there was a Tory lead of 18.8 per cent. Then it fell to 9.5 per cent in mid- September, probably because of what was said at the ruc conference. No, that can't be right, because in its issue of II September

the Daily Mail was saying that the TUC had resulted in a rise in Conservative popularity —remember 'Tories leap ahead again'?

Anyway it was clear that, whatever the reason, the Tory lead fell steadily throughout September. At least it would have been clear if I hadn't had the ill-luck to trip over an old.copy of the Daily Express, dated 29 Sep- tember to be precise. And there on the front page was a great big splash saying 'If a General Election were to be held now, the Tories would crush the Government by a massive 17 per cent. That is the finding of a Harris Poll test of public opinion'.

Wait a minute. Where are we? At the beginning of September the Tories are 18.8 per cent in the lead. A few days later they've gone down to about half that. By late September they've shot up to 17 percent. And—horror—still more to come. For here is the Daily Mail again (NoP) saying on 16 October that `The Tory lead over Labour has been halved'. Believe it or not, the damn thing's gone down to 9.9 per cent again.

God Almighty, I give up. Did somebody say something about British phlegm? Phlegmatic my foot. We're manic depres- sives. We're up and down like a flaming yo-yo. Or so the pollsters tell us.

Well, do you know what I think? I don't believe it. And do you know what...else I think? I think that if an editor sent out an experienced reporter with an old-fashioned - notebook to go round and ask people how they felt about politics, he'd come back with results that couldn't be more confusing than the ones the polls produce and might be a lot more helpful.

But I'm forgetting. Polling is scientific. Scientific is modern. Modern is good. So hurrah for polling. And of course we do spend a lot of money on these various polling systems, so let's splash them all over our papers for all they are worth (or for much more than they're worth, if you share my views). But spare a thought for old Tom Carlyle, won't you, while you're at it?

PS. I find I've said nothing about the Times's Marplan poll. I wonder why not?