TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE GERMAN ELECTIONS.
pRINCE BISMARCK'S appeal to the German people lies been, for his objects, a great success. The Roman Catholics of the Empire have, indeed, stood out with a deci- sion only emphasised by the interference of the Pope ; Berlin has repudiated his policy almost with fury, returning only enemies, and increasing her Socialist vote ; and Alsace-Lorraine has reaffirmed, by an unbroken list of anti-German Deputies, that she still clings to France. All over the country, a large minority have, when consulted even under the extreme circum- stances of this election, refused to abandon their claim to an ultimate control over the Army for which they pay. These are heavy drawbacks to his triumph ; bat taking the Empire as a whole, the Chancellor has secured the greatest internal victory of his long period of power. The Liberal Party is scattered to the winds, the slaughter of its subordinate leaders in particular amounting to a massacre. Particularism has almost disappeared, Bavaria, Saxony, Hanover, and the minor States vying with each other in their return of faithful adherents to the Imperial military policy. The Socialists, though largely increased in numbers at the polls, have driven masses of electors into Conservatism, and will count fewer votes than ever in the Reichstag. The Septennate will probably be voted without a debate, and although rifts and fissures may hereafter appear within the majority, particularly upon the subject of taxation, it is believed that the Govern- ment may rely upon steady support for the next three years. Indeed, the majority may be a large one, for though the Centre comes back in great though diminished strength, it is by no means certain that, if Leo XIII. adheres to his new policy, that party will vote, as it has done for years, as an undivided group. In any case, for the present the Chancellor is master. The German people have been subjected to two potent influences, and both have worked one way. Half the majority probably believe that if they support a renewal of the Septennate and an increase of the Army, Prince Bismarck, by some able foreign combination, will secure them peace. They have not been told so—that is a mistake denounced in the official statement that the Emperor has given no assurance of the kind—but they have been told over and over again that a refusal of the Military Bill meant war. Count von Moltke, who, like most silent men, is trusted when he speaks, told them so in the clearest terms ; and he was believed. They have voted, there- fore, in the assurance that their vote tended to make war at least less probable. The other half, more afraid of war, especially from the Russian side (this is, we believe, a strong feeling in Saxony, which in a war with Russia might be a cockpit), have judged that while Prince Bismarck may secure peace, in a war none could secure victory like the group which triumphed in 1870, and they have therefore voted for the Emperor and the agents he selects. The foreign question is dominant, and fear of war, love for Germany, confidence in the Chancellor in all foreign affairs, and recollections of 1870—the soldiers ef that year are still only thirty-eight years old—have all combined to induce Germans to postpone the desire of liberty to the desire of strength. Patriotism, as men understand the word in war-time, seems to conflict with Liberalism, and the Germans, who have been told every day of their danger, and who realise what an invasion would mean, as we in this country can never do, have consented to a renewal of the dictatorship. We cannot think them wise, for the Bill for three years would have strengthened the State as much as the Bill for seven, and they need not have placed their liberties at the feet of a Government which, mighty as its triumphs have been, has not developed the internal life of Germany ; but their destiny lay in their own hands, and their decision, under such heavy pressure, is not unnatural.
Whether they will secure the peace for which they hope, no man, not even Prince Bismarck himself, can yet decide. Be has summoned the Reichstag for next week, and he will pro- bably make a speech which will throw more light on the general situation. It ought to contain, and probably will con- tain, a renewed expression of his desire for peace, and his convic- tion that Germany is now strong enough to await any attack ; but it may also contain fresh reminders that Alsace-Lorraine has not abandoned her hopes, that the strain of waiting till France is ready is most severe, and that the outlook to the east- ward does not improve. Recent news from St. Petersburg must have greatly irritated him. It is stated in lettere, attributed to N. de Giers, that Russia cannot allow France to be permanently weakened, that she will watch Germany, and will, if war ensues, strike in to prevent her profiting too much by victory. The semi-official papers of Berlin reply that this is an invite-. lion to France to declare war, secure that she will not be- punished in the end, and that Germany also can find and use faithful allies. The Russian Press, moreover, has been let loose against Germany, and General Roop, Governor-General of Odessa, within whose jurisdiction there has been some concen- tration of force, has issued an Order of the Day to the troops in which he tells them that national victories are won by national spirit, and that, if they have to meet the repeating-rifle before they have received one of their own, they must not fear. Articles of the most abusive kind against Prince Bismarck are forwarded to him direct from St. Petersburg, and, in one instance at least, have been denounced by himself in tones of visible anger. There is evidence, in short, that the Russian Government feels itself at ease, knowing that Ger- many will not resist it, lest France should spring upon her back. That is not a situation which Prince Bismarck will endure for long, and his efforts to improve it, though they may avoid war, may also precipitate its outbreak. The chances remain, therefore, as uncertain as ever they were, and are changed only in this, that Prince Bismarck has obtained a freer hand, his own people trusting him more than ever, and foreign nations being more than ever aware of the danger a rupture with him involves.
It is strange to see how potent the influence, and even the direct power of the individual, remains. The nations are sup- posed to guide their own destinies, and in a sense so they do, for not only do they create the Legislatures, but their opinion, when it is strong, directly affects the chiefs of the various Executives. They concede, however, rights of leadership so great that they are equivalent to powers of command ; and at this moment, with Europe in an agony of suspense, and all men's prosperity and happiness hanging on a decision, that decision rests almost finally with less than half-a-dozen men, who do not sit in Council, but act singly, and usually against each other. That is not a success for civilisation to have obtained, more especially when it is seen that each of these men, though he could secure war at any moment, could not equally secure peace. The power of the individual for good is, in fact, limited as his power for evil is not. The reign of opinion, which we all think—perhaps mistakenly, for there might be a gigantic Ireland—is the modern guarantee for the happiness of mankind, is still exceedingly imperfect. The nations must trust the execution of their will to persons, an& they do trust, be it from timidity or self-distrust, or help- lessness, the guidance of that will. No Czar has a more perfect initiative than Prince Bismarck at this moment. Mr. Gladstone changed the creed of a party on a vital point by a sudden declaration. If General Boulanger, probably a second-rate man, and certainly an unproved one, declared for war to-morrow, there would be war ; or, to put it more exactly, war would be at once the greater probability. Each one of the ruling men might be acting with an eye to other interests than the happiness, or even the true greatness, of his people. There is no remedy, for till the world ends there must be leaders, and till war ends those leaders must be trusted with powers which give them an initiative ; but this imperfection of civilisation should be more carefully watched. At present, half the best Englishmen think the Germans right to leave Prince Bismarck unchecked, even by the necessity of debate, and do not see that a leader may be made as irre- sponsible as any King.
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