AMERICA PROSPERS
By ERWIN D. CANHAM WITH the re-convening of Congress, American opinion has turned back to domestic problems. Though the President appealed in his annual message for " national unity," the politicians in his own and the Republican parties soon showed that this was not to mean a moratorium on politics. Mr. Roosevelt, therefore, is beleaguered by a strong opposition in two parties as far as his internal policies are concerned, and the way to a third term seems now to be effectually blocked unless startling developments either in Europe or America create a demand for him to remain in office.
Meantime, the life of the nation from Atlantic to Pacific and from Canada to Mexico goes on with a throbbing tempo which pays little attention to political manoeuvring. Citizens in Dubuque and Peoria, in Oshkosh and Walla Walla, are interested more than anything else in rising business statistics. This month, and for several months more, a flattening-out of the upward curve of industrial activity is expected. Then, however, most economists expect another steady upward movement which will provide a broader base for a boom than any in recent American history. These forecasters may well be wrong ; they have been wrong before ; but all the same a good deal of optimism pervades the nation, feeds on a political reaction away from the New Deal—whose experimental phases are in cold storage anyway —and to some degree generates its own motive-power. In short, long-awaited " confidence " seems to be returning.
These thriving times only strengthen the average Ameri- can's desire to stay at peace. Not that isolationism is growing. President Roosevelt's eloquent statements in his annual message pretty accurately reflect the popular feeling.
On America's role he said : " We do not have to go to war with other nations, but at least we can strive with other nations to encourage the kind of peace that will lighten the troubles of the world, and by so doing help our own nation as well."
On isolationism he said: " There is a vast difference between keeping out of war and pretending that this war is none of our business. . . . Only an ostrich would look upon these wars through the eyes of cynicism and ridicule."
On democracy he said: " We must as a united people keep ablaze on this continent the flames of human liberty, of reason, of democracy and of fair play as living things to be preserved for the better world that is to come."
Thus there really is substantial national unity on the world-problem, taking the premise of American non-involve- ment but admitting a genuine American interest and an undefined degree of American responsibility for ultimate survival of the great values. If President Roosevelt could run for a third term on the platform of his foreign policies, he would have a real chance of victory. But domestic polices have interposed, and the tide is running strongly toward a change.
Under these conditions, the Presidential boom of Cordell Hull is strengthening. Completely identified with the Roosevelt foreign policies, but rigidly neutral on the domestic phases of the New Deal, Mr. Hull is an excellent compromise between the progressive and the conservative wings of the New Deal, and so his name is increasingly to the fore. He would be the most difficult Democrat for the Republicans to defeat, for he combines the best of both worlds. The Republicans could succeed swimmingly against a Left-wing Democrat ; if a Right-wing Democrat were nominated a Republican would probably win still, by the rule that if a conservative is to be chosen the pendulum had better swing all the way. But Mr. Hull fits right in the middle.
On the Republican side, Senator Robert A. Taft's chances for the nomination seem to be strengthening, although it is still a three-way race with Senator Arthur H. Vandenberg and Mr. Thomas E. Dewey, New York county attorney, strongly campaigning. It is important to note that Senator Taft and Mr. Dewey both lean towards co-operative foreign policies, and away from isolationism. Senator Vandenberg is a somewhat moderate isolationist.
But, after all, there is much happening in the United States that is not political, and that is not concerned with the war—much that is of some importance to the rest of the world. As recorded earlier, the most significant development concerns the swifter pace of business. Some of the year- opening forecasts are amazing, and worth recording. An official group of economists. privately foresee—to take a few sample statistics—a 33 per cent. increase in sales of radio sets and phonographs in the fiscal year running from July 1st, 1939, to July 1st, 1940, and a 23 per cent. increase in the following fiscal period. The following figures apply to the same periods. Sales of motor lorries, up 23 per cent and 26 per cent. in the two 12-month periods ; mechanical refrigerators up 3o per cent. and 18 per cent.; passenger motor-cars up 26 per cent. and 16 per cent.; use of electrical energy up I per cent. this year and 6 per cent. next. And so it goes through many lines of production of consumer's goods. Measured in terms of total industrial production, the calendar year 1939 worked out at 105 ; for the next six months an average of about 113 is expected ; and for the twelve months beyond that an average of about 120.
This kind of prosperous America means much to Europe. It means, if Secretary Hull's trade treaty authority is not revoked by Congress, that the United States will be able to buy more standard and luxury products from Great Britain, if these are available for export at a not greatly increased price. It means that there should not be the pressure of depression—as there was in 1914-15—to force greatly expanded exports to the belligerent nations supported by loans and credits. It means that the United States should be a stabilising factor in the world, with its democracy functioning more normally than in the depths of economic stringency. It means that the flame of economic and political sanity is likely to burn more clearly here.
The winds of economic encouragement have already blown away much of the sultry political atmosphere of recent years.
There is still an underlying bitterness against President Roosevelt in dominant business and financial circles, and for some distance down into the middle class—a bitterness that is probably hard to understand in Britain. But the feeling is not so acute and personal as it has been hitherto, partlY because of better times, partly because of the diminution of third-term prospects, partly because of unification in foreign policy. It is possible, should a moderate Democrat and a moderate Republican oppose one another for the Presidency, that we would have a campaign relatively free from bitterness and disruption, and unlikely to affect foreign policies adversely. A good deal of continuity in present policies now seems indicated.
But before the campaign itself comes, the President is likely to push forward with some kind of peace programme. Its indications have become open and impelling, since this correspondence indicated many weeks ago in The Spectator's columns that the President was preparing for a peace initia- tive and was staking his place in history upon the effort. Now Mr. Roosevelt is quite openly conferring and talking on a peace programme—without going into details yet, but only indicating his availability as a " mediator." From now until the time for a peace offensive, that will be the clarion note in American policy.
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