THE HARVEST.
ALREADY some oats and a few pieces of wheat have been cut in the earliest districts of the country ; and, if the weather should be fine, harvest will be general in the South and East of England before another week has ended. The time has come, therefore, when it is possible to speak of crop prospects with some amount of confidence, which is all the greater on account of the striking uniformity of reports from nearly all parts of the United Kingdom. The uniformity, however, is in the reports, not in the crops, which are rightly described as varying greatly, with the exception of wheat and potatoes, in which there are less marked differences than usual.
The cereal year, so far, has been one of extraordinary vicis- situdes. After an abnormally mild winter, during which the autumn-planted wheat, beans, and fodder-crops main- tained a vigorous growth, we had a dry and cold spring, with an unusually lengthened prevalency of east and north- east winds, and a few severe late frosts. One conse- quence was that the wheat crop, which presented a re- markably flourishing appearance at the beginning of March, was looking yellow and pinched #t the end of April, and an ungenial May still further diminished the vigour of the crop. Still, the wheat had been so well sown and rooted that it stood the sharp trials it had to endure with comparative impunity. The prolonged drought was beneficial to the crop, except on burning soils ; and when the first week in June brought a bountiful rainfall to most parts of the country, there was no further fear of injury from the lack of moisture in the soil. But experienced observers saw that early estimates of the wheat crop had to be discounted ; and that, instead of expecting one of the most prolific yields, an average produce was about all that could be looked for. The hot and still weather of the blooming-time was eminently propitious to the fructification of the ears, and the hopes of farmers were once more raised by the probability of a full yield of grain in proportion to straw. These hopes, we believe, will not be disappointed. We have seldom seen the ears better " set " than they are this season. Apparently defective vigour in the plants prevented them from making the most of the brilliant weather of June, when fertilisation took place. Still there appears to be a sufficiency of plump kernels to fill the bushel well ; there is a remarkable absence of mildew, and no very obvious damage from insects ; and the shortness of the straw is a security against lodging, which is a frequent source of heavy loss, it is true that the recent storms have laid the heaviest of the crops, especially in the Fen districts, but there is less laid corn than one sees in nine harvests out of ten. An average wheat crop, or perhaps a little over, then, may be expected on an area considerably in excess of that of last year. At a moderate computation we may reckon on a market- able produce, after allowing for seed and other consump- tion on the farm, of some 10,000,000 quarters of wheat, leaving foreign countries to supply us with about 15,000,000 quarters, to make up the quantity of a year's human consump- tion. Without going into an elaborate statistical computation, it is enough to say that we might easily import double our requirements from foreign sources at our own prices ; for there will be a very great surplus in America, India can send us large supplies, the Russian granaries are full of last year's wheat, the Australasian colonies have a larger surplus than usual, and other exporting countries have either good or fair crops of wheat. One American statistician of some standing estimates the crop of wheat now being gathered in at 14,500,000 quarters above that of last year—a surplus on a surplus, that by itself would keep us sufficiently supplied with the foreign wheat and.flour absolutely necessary for our consumption. Prices are very low now, as they have been ever since last harvest. Since the beginning of the present year, the highest weekly average price of wheat has been 39s. a quarter, and for the week ended on Saturday last, it was only 37s. id. The world's wheat crop is so very much greater than it was last year, that we see nothing to prevent the average price going down to 35s., and we should not be much surprised to see it down to 30s. Probably no grower in any country can profitably produce wheat to sell here at the latter price ; but there is no better market, and the grain produced must be sold at times' prices, however low they may be. No doubt, speculation would be very active with wheat at anything below an average price of 35s., and we do not expect it to go below that figure for any considerable time ; but it is not at all improbable that a lower price will be touched during the next cereal year. The recent rains have greatly improved the prospects of spring corn ; but we fear that every other crop than wheat and potatoes, and turnips as well in Scotland, will be under average. The lack of the usual frosts of winter was a great disadvantage to barley and oats. By dint of extra labour the seed was sown in a tolerably effectual manner where it was got in early, and there are some very fine pieces of barley in all parts of the country. A genial and showery spring would in all probability have insured a generally good harvest ; but the drought and cold weather together proved too much for crops sown under difficulties, and it is only early fields of barley and those on fertile or well-farmed land that look well, while oats almost everywhere are short and light. Both crops have grown well recently ; but we fear the rain came too late to bring them up to average, unless in the late districts of the kingdom, where there is more time than in the earlier parts of England for improvement. With respect to the pulse crops, the drought was too much for them. Winter beans may yield well, and peas will not be a bad crop where they have not died off prematurely ; but spring beans are decidedly light. The root crop in England and Ireland is a very bad one as a whole, mangels especially. Late turnips alone have a chance of coming to a good crop. In Scotland, on the other hand, the important swede crop is better than usual. The hay crop, it is scarcely necessary to state, is a very light one, so that the prospects of winter-keep for live stock are far from satisfactory. Potatoes are strong and healthy in all parts of the United Kingdom, the only fear being lest the rain, after so long a period of dry weather, should cause the tubers to shoot and reproduce. The hop crop, which was very vigorous in its early stage, has suffered from a serious and persistent attack of aphis. Fortunately, washing was more generally resorted to by growers than in any previous season when the " fly " prevailed ; and those who persevered in the work are likely to be well rewarded. On the whole, prospects are much better than they were a month ago ; and it seems probable that a fair, though not a full, crop of hops will be gathered in many districts, if the weather should be favourable. Hot sunshine is needed in order to insure the most favourable results. The fruit crops are very variable. Bush fruits are fairly plentiful, and a good crop of strawberries was gathered in a short time. Stone fruit is ex- tremely scarce, and so are pears ; but apples are moderately abundant.
Under all the circumstances, we fear that the year 1884 cannot be a prosperous one for the farmers of this country.
The extremely low price of wheat, the rather poor prospects for other generally grown crops, and the probability of a defi- ciency of winter-keep for their live stock, together place them in a position in which it will be hard for them to make both ends meet. It is just possible that the cereals may yield so abundantly in proportion to straw that its produce will be, alto- gether, but little below average. That, however, would not entirely make up for the other disadvantages of the season. As a rule, when the cereals are light, there is a good crop of hay, and very often of roots also ; but it is not so this year, and pastoral as well as arable farmers are hard hit. What makes the position all the more distressing is the fact that this is peculiarly a season in which the most needy farmers will suffer most severely. It often happens, when there is a great crop of straw, that the best farmers suffer most seriously from the lodging Of their corn, while poor farmers have fair standing crops ; but this year, those fortunate enough to occupy farms either naturally fertile, or made so by liberal expenditure, will reap a rich harvest, while their less skilful or less favourably situated neighbours will go short. The chief element of uncertainty now before the farmers is the character of the weather for the ingathering of their crops.
An indifferent crop well harvested is more valuable than a good one sodden with rain, discoloured, and sprouted. Fine weather for the next six weeks, then, would be an invaluable boon to the country. It would preserve the quality of the grain, and secure the harvesting of the crops with a minimum of loss and at a minimum of expense.
Previous page
