Politics
How to fix Jim
Perhaps it is something to do with East Anglia. In the summer of 1981, you may remember, Mr James Prior was filmed standing beside his Suffolk tractor and explaining to the cameras that he wanted to stay on at the Department of Employment and that he did not want to go to Northern Ireland. On Monday, the intimacy of a phone-in on Radio Norfolk coaxed him into admitting that he might have had enough. 'I think probably the time does come when a fresh mind ought to be
brought in.' Yes, probably it does. think I probably have done about as much there lin Ulster] as I am going to do.' Yes, probably he has, and probably that is widely recognised, in Northern Ireland more sharply than anywhere else. But what sets everyone talking is not the content of Mr Prior's unexceptionable statements, but his decision to make them publicly.
It is natural, particularly if one has the lobby journalist's habit of mind, to search every utterance for what it doesn't say, for what it hints, or what, in the particular circumstances, it is trying to achieve, but might it not be that Mr Prior was saying no more than what he thought? There are precedents for this. Mr Prior's biographer (who does not exist, and who, thanks to the chances of politics, probably never will ex- ist) could record several past instances when Jim has spoken out. There was the time when he said that he thought Sir Charles Villiers, the chairman of British Steel, ought to go, and Mrs Thatcher kindly ap- peared on television for him afterwards to say that he was 'very, very sorry'. There was the Suffolk tractor incident, and there have been countless semi-attributable semi- private occasions when Mr Prior has said that he disagrees with this, that he objects to that, that he is fed up with her. There is usually less to it than meets the eye. Mr Prior no doubt feels that he is old enough and senior enough not to need to mind his ps and qs, and even if he is wrong about this, he finds it difficult to control his natural frankness.
In some ways, Mr Prior's attitude is attractive. When there were more Wets in the Cabinet, they were much criticised for their disloyalty. Mr St John Stevas invented the sort of names for Mrs Thatcher which in politics pass as wit; Sir Ian Gilmour spoke with disdain of his vulgar colleagues; Mr Pym made speeches full of doubts and worries, and Mr Prior was up there with the worst of them, joking and rumouring and complaining. All this must have been an- noying for Mrs Thatcher, but 'disloyalty' seems rather a grand word for it. Politics would be inefficient as well as dull if Cabinet ministers were too frightened or devoted ever to disapprove of their leader. The Wets, perhaps partly because they were on the whole older and grander than the Dries, understood this, Mr Prior most notably. Most of the Wet Cabinet ministers had the reputation among journalists of be- ing good for a lunch — not the highest ac- colade, no doubt, but real praise all the same. They did not mean very much harm. Whenever the boat looked particularly unsteady, they refused to rock it or, at least, gave it only a feeble little jiggle. None of them resigned on a matter of policy.
But Mr Prior's frankness may be a little less kind to Ulster. Everyone knows, of course, that he feels the customary Englishman's contempt for the province, and that, after nearly three years, it is time to move on, but having it said openly makes life no easier. It is like meeting a man at a. party who is so extravagantly bored with you that he does not bother to conceal his yawns — you feel crosser and more uncom- fortable than if he had feigned interest, however unconvincingly. There are still several months before the autumn, when, it is said, Mrs Thatcher will want to move everyone round. In those months Mr Prior has to go on governing Ulster. He will lose what little confidence he maintains if peo- ple know that he is simply marking time. Mr Kinnock was right, in the House of Commons on Tuesday, to criticise Mrs Thatcher's evasiveness on the subject. It would be nice to know who is to run Nor- thern Ireland, and when.
The one real advantage of the coming in- terregnum is that it will relieve the pressure to `do something' which is coming from the New Ireland Forum. Almost every Nor- thern Ireland Secretary since the post was invented has believed that he should come to the province with `fresh ideas'. He has done so, the ideas have failed, and before the lessons of their failure have been learnt, he has gone away again. It would be nice to have a longer period in which only stale ideas, or even better, no ideas at all, were tried, a policy so far followed only by Mr Roy Mason, much the most successful Nor- thern Ireland Secretary. A Mr Prior who has passed sentence on himself will be much less likely to do anything rash than a Mr Prior wanting to provoke his own sacking by forcing a confrontation in Irish policy.
Presumably Mrs Thatcher will not try to make Mr Prior stay in Northern Ireland against his will. So by Christmas at the very latest there will be a reshuffle. Yet there do not seem to be many people ripe for shuffl- ing. It will be little more than a year since the General Election, and no leading minister has so far so disgraced himself that he could justifiably be demoted. Perhaps Sir Keith Joseph might wish to hand over Education (although he seems to be enjoy-
ing it more now than any job at any tintlei since 1979), perhaps Sir Geoffrey Howe be made Lord Chancellor, against the fel: vent wishes of both himself and Lore Hailsham. Apart from that, it is a quest° of swaps. Mr Prior could exchange with Mr Patrick Jenkin at Environment, but that would be a frying-pan-into-fire-situatiOn. unappealing to both, and Mr Prior woalab then be terminally identified wits t Thatcherite policy. Mrs Thatcher might ue, tempted to put Mr Prior in Education o' Defence, but in both of these his gift for `conciliation' would ruin any chance of crests, controlling spending or vested int and in the case of Defence, something better would have to be found for Mr Heseltineci Mr Prior's powers of pacification all, belligerence, and his political weight, ntirt make him a good Home SecretarY, what becomes of the diligent Mr Britton' Mrs Thatcher might feel that she wanted to take Mr Prior's hint and send him to the 7, backbenches. His public utterances mean that he could not complain if she did. 1311_ b: with all the discontents that spring from ridiculously large majority it would lit injudicious to let Mr Prior loose. He 1111g d take up half a dozen directorships „„ spend more time with his agribusiness, hu he would also spare the odd evening to 53Y what he thought about the way things were-5 going. For several months, indeed, it "at been put about, not only by Mr Prior het by 'sources close to the Prime Minister', ti,/a Jim and Margaret are friends, and that Jolle deserves a decent job after such a long tit11,,e `over there'. The only obstacle is that the job should not be all that decent, since Jib is not to be trusted with any post which al fects the central economic strategy. I can think of only one swap, and till not much canvassed, that might do tilt political trick without ruining a departMe.Atir at either end. Exchange Mr Prior and iv'ti John Biffen. Mr Biffen is intelligent enottgA and enough of a true Tory to understan"( that being Northern Ireland Secretary is,r.fe mere pointless and ignominious exile. Conservatives have never yet appointed a Northern Ireland Secretary who was.4 unionist, and it is time that they did. 1"„ Biffen is a unionist, but he is als° moderate and sceptical man: he w°111,5 know how to do nothing sensibly. Leader of the House (which he has sue t cessfully been before), Mr Prior would able to lead something more closelYe resembling the `normal life' for which 11,, longs. He would be popular with MPs of 0: parties. He would also, it is true, `disloyal', using the Thursday lobby brie ,e ings to say what he really thought about t" state of the Government. But as we have, already said, disloyalty of that sort due' very little harm. It even helps to convince people that the Government is broadminu; ed. If Mr Prior could manage that for lvir Thatcher, he really would be performing a service.
Charles fvlool_.
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