MR. CHAMBERLAIN'S CHANCES.
THE hopes of the genuine Protectionists of the country are fixed upon Mr. Chamberlain. They extend to Mr. Balfour a benevolent approval, for they see that hewould go farther if he dared ; but their political attachment is for the Minister who has resigned because the Cabinet he quits, though Protectionist, is not prepared to propose preferential duties involving taxation upon food. They think that, with his popularity in the Colonies, which they parade in every organ they can influence, with his per- suasive eloquence, and with his strong manufacturer's will, he will either carry the country, or at least build up such a party in the House that the New Protectionists 'must always take their view into consideration, and at least desire, if they cannot impose, fresh taxation on bread. Their delight is the greater because it is so unexpected. They had surrendered .even hope, and now they are told THE hopes of the genuine Protectionists of the country are fixed upon Mr. Chamberlain. They extend to Mr. Balfour a benevolent approval, for they see that hewould go farther if he dared ; but their political attachment is for the Minister who has resigned because the Cabinet he quits, though Protectionist, is not prepared to propose preferential duties involving taxation upon food. They think that, with his popularity in the Colonies, which they parade in every organ they can influence, with his per- suasive eloquence, and with his strong manufacturer's will, he will either carry the country, or at least build up such a party in the House that the New Protectionists 'must always take their view into consideration, and at least desire, if they cannot impose, fresh taxation on bread. Their delight is the greater because it is so unexpected. They had surrendered .even hope, and now they are told by the strongest man in England that they, after all, were the only men in the right. Mr. Chaplin was, they are assured, wiser than Mr. Gladstone or Sir Robert Peel. They feel as Roman Catholics would feel if an Arch- bishop of Canterbury suddenly submitted himself to Rome, and can hardly help believing that when so great a man throws up a great office for such a cause, it must be an indication that the body of the people, always silent till the hour arrives, is ready to follow his example. We think they are under a delusion; that Mr. Chamberlain's coming campaign will not only not conquer the country, but that it will destroy the chances of the New Protectionists on whose behalf he is to make his recon- naissance. The defeat of the great T.Thlan in front will bewilder and dishearten the main body behind, perhaps even throw it into the confusion which precedes and pro- duces total rout.
We have upon one point great confidence in Mr. Chamberlain. We believe him to be at any given moment absolutely sincere. He is a man who can change his views ; but when he changes them the new views take full possession of his mind. He will risk many things and make many sacrifices on its behalf. Just now the great Colonies have captured his imagination; he has convinced himself that we can only retain their loyalty by proving that adhesion to Britain will be to them a pecuniary gain ; and he is ready for such an end to run the prodigious, as we think, the insane, risk of making that loyalty a heavy burden to the common folk of the 'United Kingdom. Because of that loyalty everything is to be dear. He will speak under the pleasantest conditions, for he is at all times a thoroughgoing optimist ; be has just shaken him- self free of a heap of embarrassing questions about the Army, education, Ireland, and the like; and he will have a new command of all his remarkable powers of swaying a great multitude. We have no doubt that his descriptions of the Empire will elicit Shout': of enthusiasm ; that he will frequently sit down amidst hurricanes of applause ; that he will often pass his resolutions without apparent, or at least audible, dissent. What we doubt is whether he will produce conviction in the people, will alter the shout of " No ! " which has already shattered a great party into the " Yes !" which will make him the Dictator. For as defeat will politically ruin Mr. Chamberlain, so victory, however deep his loyalty to Mr. Balfour may be, will inevitably leave him, and not Mr. Balfour or anybody else, master of the situation and the Empire. He has against him not only the whole force, as we think, of economic argument, but the whole force of the self-interest of the masses; the whole force of experience, which for sixty years has taught the same lesson ; and the whole force of the silent British pride, which will decide that if the affection el the Colonies can be retained only by bribes, it will be nobler to see if we cannot live the great life even without their aid. That he thinks he can single-handed defeat these forces is, after his experience of the last few weeks, a wonderful proof of his courage ; but courage, though it go often makes wisdom effective, is not always a proof of its existence. The commandant of a forlorn hope is always a subject for just admiration, but there is no instance that we can recall of his displaying the qualities of those great soldiers, half statesmen, half drillmasters, who have con- tributed so much to the history of the world. Nor are the cheers with which every regiment worth its salt follows such a commandant proof that it would at a cooler moment help to make him Commander-in-Chief. Mr. Chamber- lain's career has been hitherto a history of success, brit he has usually had with him the instinctive decisions of the British people, determined, whatever the merits of the argument, that Ireland. should not secede, or that, as Dutch South Africa had challenged. us, we should not stay defeated. This time those instincts are against MM.
It follows that if Mr. Chamberlain is defeated, his allies are defeated too. The general belief is that they are acting together on a clearly understood agreement, and even if that is not true, it is true that they are inevitably allied in policy and in destiny. Protection, whether of the old or of the new kind, leads inevitably to taxation on food. To protect all industries except the most necessary one, and the one which suffers most from the pooling of the world's supply of wheat and flesh, is too great an injustice to be long tolerated, even if the Agrarians did not possess so heavy a-share of voting power. The -ccrm- munity sees that clearly already, and will be more con- vinced as the controversy goes on. It is the cue just now to say that this is a mere "Radical cry," that the taxation of food has been given up, and that the defenders of free food are only trying to excite prejudice ; but neither Mr. Balfour nor Mr. Arthur Elliot is a Radical, and they both say the same thing. The former is the Conservative Premier, and throughout his recent manifesto he lets it be seen that he only objects to the taxation of food because of the popular opposition, which Mr. Cham- berlain's victory would show to be unreal. Mr. Elliot is one of the ablest of Old Whigs, and he surrenders an office in which he delights because in his judgment Pro- tection leads " inevitably " to taxation on food. Long before the controversy ends the people will see this as clearly as Mr. Elliot sees it; they have decided that this shall not be; and on that rock Mr. Chamberlain and the great Unionist party, which might have accomplished so much, will when the Election comes be wrecked. It might have survived the military muddles of the last few years, for the most efficient race in the world has an incurable tolerance for in- efficiency, never shooting, and rarely condemning, a general for the loss of a battle ; and it would have survived the unfair irritation caused by the Education Act ; but it will not survive a revival of the system under which a majority of an industrious people went always hungry to bed. There is the argument which every one can understand, and which will overthrow Mr. Chamberlain. To conciliate the Colonists, who are the best fed of mankind, he proposes to make food less accessible to the British working man. He cannot do it ; and because he will try, the British party system will be pulverised, and we run the risk of being left without an effective Government. The Unionists will not follow if these are to be their leaders, and the Liberals, at present at any rate, do not seem to be able to agree upon the men who are to lead.
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