The League of Nations
Geneva and Great Britain's Troubles
Fnom the moment when the news of Great Britain's departure from the gold standard reached Geneva—the German dele- gation rather curiously appears to have been the first to hear of it—the situation resulting has been, naturally enough, the sole topic of discussion in the corridors and of frequent references in Committees. All Englishmen present must have been a good deal moved by the brief declaration made by the chairman of the Second Commission, which deals with financial questions, after Sir Arthur Salter had briefly stated exactly what the situation was. M. Janson expressed the deep sympathy of all present with Great Britain and his confidence that the resolution displayed by Englishmen in so many crises in the past would carry them safely and swiftly through the present difficulties. The spontaneous and universal applause which immediately broke out testified to the justice of the chairman's claim to be speaking for all present.
These words, through the exigencies of time and distance, are necessarily being written within twenty-four hours of the first arrival of the news at Geneva, and it is early,therefore, to speak of the effect in League circles. No one is disposed to underestimate the seriousness of the step the Cabinet has taken. Many of the most experienced foreign com- mentators are equally indisposed to take too tragic a view of the outlook. Some of them actually welcome the abandon- ment of the gold standard, partly on the ground that the parity of the pound has been too high ever since 1925, and partly because such a shock as this is held to be needed to bring home to certain countries which hold the key to the situation the gravity of the possibilities presented.
From many points of view some action by the League might reasonably be expected. It is to the League of Nations that men of all countries should legitimately look in such a crisis, but, as speaker after speaker has reluctantly confessed, the League finds itself very nearly powerless. This obviously is no case for mere emergency measures, though emergency measures of some sort will no doubt somehow be taken, but the disease itself goes far too deep for any such expedients. There are no illusions about the causes of the trouble, any more than there is any hope that stability can be restored without a settlement of the reparations and debt issue. In that settlement the United States and France—the great gold holders of the world—must necessarily play a leading part. America is not in the League, and France's willingness to play that part is still in question. The Temps may or may not be right when it alleges that M. Flandin, the French Finance Minister, protested in advance against the proposal Sir Arthur Salter was said to be intending to make for the convocation by the League of an international conference on the gold question and international indebtedness ; but the fact that the story was given currency in a leading French journal shows, at any rate, that there is no inherent impro- bability in the rumour of such action by the French. The proposal has in fact not been put forward, for the speech in which Sir Arthur Salter was reported to be intending to include it was never delivered, owing to the complete transformation of the outlook by the news from London. Nevertheless, the League is still waiting. In spite of the difficulties I have mentioned it would be fantastic, rather tragically fantastic, if, at the very moment when repre- sentatives of almost all the nations of the world were gathered in conference, no attempt could be made to solve difficulties which affect almost all the nations of the world in varying degrees.
The absence of America and Russia from the League is not necessarily a fatal obstacle, for those countries are already co-operating to the full in some of the League enterprises, notably disarmament, and on the very day on which Sir Arthur Salter announced the British Government's action to the Second Commission of the Assembly, - Mr. Hugh Wilson, the United States Minister at Berne, on the instructions of his government, took a seat among the members of the Assembly's Third Commission when it was discussing the question of an armaments truce. The significance of this acceptance (which it was believed was ready even before the invitation was extended) will be fully appreciated only by those who remember the days when the United States Government declined to send so much as a formal acknowledgement of communications received from Geneva.
As to the armaments truce itself, which has been rightly regarded as one of the most concrete and most hopeful proposals emerging at the Assembly, there seems reasonable ground for hoping that some definite action may result. That depends most of all on the attitude of Great Britain, which has not been fully defined up to this point, but it is impossible to imagine it as unfavourable in view of the financial situation, if for no other reason. The Italians have taken time to discover what support their proposal was likely to command and have now put it into workable shape, indicating clearly enough how they conceive that land, sea and air forces respectively could be kept to their present level during the year for which they hope the truce should run. The acceptance by the nations of the Italian proposal would, without question, have a favourable psychological effect and create an atmosphere in which the Conference might begin its work with much increased hope of success. It may be assumed that Great Britain, Germany, the United States and probably Japan are in favour of the Italian proposal. It may be assumed that France is against it, though it would have the immediate effect of consecrating for the year in question that naval supremacy over Italy on which France lays so much insistence. It might possibly be argued that to bring the proposal forward was a mistake. However that may be, to reject it now that it has been brought forward would be a disaster.
It is still possible for the Twelfth Assembly to bear notable fruit in the shape of some agreement, contrary to expectation, on this armaments truce question, and some initiative at present unlooked for in the field of international finance. But the impressions imposing themselves at this particular moment do not lend much support to that idea. By no fault of its own, but through the force of circumstances, it has no power to control. The Twelfth Assembly promises to end with no more to its record than the always useful exchange of ideas and a number of useful decisions on admittedly secondary points. But in this the Assembly's last week : it may be repeated, something may well happen to necessitate the revision of that judgement.
One other event is occupying attention a good deal—the clash between Japanese and Chinese at Mukden—and again it is necessary to write while events are still unfolding and information is not yet complete. By a rather fortunate accident China was elected unanimously a member of the League Council some five days before the Mukden outbreak took place. It was therefore on equal terms that M. Yoshizawa and M. Sze could face each other across the Council table, and both of them in their initial statements conveyed the impression that their two countries would keep the League informed of the course of events and would regard its intervention in case of need as both legitimate and proper. The Chinese Government did indeed, on Monday, definitely bring the question before the League Council under Article 11 of the Covenant as a matter of urgency, and the Council was summoned for the next morning to deal with it. But Geneva is a long way from the wilds of Manchuria, and generals are apt to pay less heed than politicians to the warnings and reminders of a political institution. Till the incident is cleared up, therefore, political anxiety regarding Asia is added to financial anxiety regarding Europe, and in neither field can any judgement of value be passed at this moment. The League, and perhaps the world, would appear to have a critical week before it, the results of which, so far as Geneva is concerned, must be dealt with in
next week's Spectator. YOUR GENEVA CORRESPONDENT.
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