Ireland—The Election and the Future
AFTER holding office for ten years, Mr. Cosgrave's Government has fallen. The most surprising thing about the change of opinion which the electorate has recorded is that it has been so long delayed. In a country of quick decisions and unexpected actions, where personal pOpnlarity and jealousies count for much, the policy, Mr. Cosgrave has pursued has not been of a nature likely to reconcile him to his opponents, many of whom questioned even the validity of the Constitution itself. When Mr. Cosgrave first took office a decade ago the state of the country was one which called for vigorous and immediate action ; it was prophesied at the time that his Ministry would be of short duration and barren of achieve- ment. The untiring and energetic administration which he directed has produced stability out of chaos, and lifted his country out of the rut of squabbling petty states to an ordered place among the nations of the world. His policy has not been without its mistakes; injustices may have been done ; but its very probity and carefulness, which have brought prosperity to his country, have been in part responsible for bringing defeat to Mr. Cosgrove himself.
The causes of his defeat at the polls—at first sight evidence of the blindness of an ungrateful country—are in detail not hard to find nor difficult to recognize. The desire for change inherent in the Irishman's nature ; agricultural depression for which the Government was unable to hold out adequate relief ; the romantic ideal- isms of a section of the community to whom Mr. de Valera's promises, founded perhaps too perilously on the sands of hope or desperation, were preferable to Mr. Cosgrave's counsels based on the firmer rock of past achievement ; the misguided apathy of the old Unionist class, whose too tardy support of Mr. Cosgrave's cause may even, On account of their earlier attitude, have driven to the arms of Fianna Fail some of those who had formerly voted for the Government ; the impending reductions in the salaries of teachers and Civic Guards ; the defec- tive organization of the Government's local committees for the election ; unemployment and the ban on emigra- tion—all these have contributed to Mr. Cosgrave's defeat.
But although Mr. de Valera has won a victory, it is improbable, if not out of the question, that he will be in a position to carry out to the full the programme on which he fought the election. The co-operation of the Labour Party, which is essential for his tenure of power, will not be bought without a price—a price which will involve the shelving, for a time at any rate, of some of the projects which are among the dearest tenets of Mr. de Valera's political creed. The three most important points of his programme the abolition of the oath of allegiance to the King incumbent on all members entering the Dail, the cessation of the payment of the Land Annuities to the British Government, and the repeal of the Public Safety Act directed against subversive organizations—arc re- garded by Labour as minor issues not to be taken into consideration until Mr. de Valera has turned his attention to the more urgent questions of industry and commerce. Ultimately Labour will probably allow Fianna Fail a certain amount of freedom : to the repeal of the Public Safety Act, which it originally opposed, it will almost certainly consent ; the question of Land Annuities it may require to have referred to neutral arbitration ; but it is definitely pledged to the support of the Anglo- Irish Treaty, and any attempt to tamper with it may well divorce the party from its alliance with Fianna Fail.
Apart from this, although it is undoubtedly difficult. there is no need to regard the situation as dangerous, The popular conception of Mr. de Valera hand in hand with the Bogey of Anarchy is as completely unfounded as it is unfortunately prevalent. There will undoubtedly be attempts, in the Press and elsewhere, to discredit Mr. de Valera's actions from the beginning. Actually there is no necessity to judge Mr. de Valera of to-day by the Mr. de Valera of 1916. Power paradoxically clips the wings of fanaticism, and nowhere more strangely than in Ireland. There is every possibility that Mr. de Valera, in the light of the responsibility of his office (and, it may be, under press- ure from his Ministerial colleagues) will abandon the flights of romance which have attracted the more hysterical of his adherents and devote himself to the less glamorous but more practical duties of sober administration. In so doing, he will have the generous support of Mr. Cosgrave, who has declared himself ready to back up the former Opposition " in all things beneficial to Ireland." If this phrase is conceived in the broad spirit which was the guiding star of Mr. Cosgrave's own administration, Mr. de Valera may he satisfied that there will he the minimum of pettiness in the opposition of Cumann na nGaedhcal.
On the other hand, if Mr. de Valera is swung off his feet by the undercurrent of the prejudices of his own party or runs hot-headed into the channels dictated by the more impetuous of his followers, he may find himself hard put to keep his head above water. Labour may he relied upon to oppose any measures which will materially raise the cost of living and so may checkmate his Tariff moves. The abolition of the Oath of Allegiance would automatically do away with Ireland's right to Dominion Preference for her exports and relief from double taxation for her nationals. England is Ireland's only considerable customer for her agricultural produce, and Mr. de Valera might well find his idealistic game not worth the candle. Guided by caution, there is no reason, however, why his administration should immediately founder. It is in the interests of Ireland that she should not have to rely for security on the counsels of a single party. This is her hour of trial. Mr. de Valera has shown himself a coura‘ geous and energetic leader of his party this is his oppor- tunity to prove himself a fit man to be entrusted with the leadership of his country. -
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