THE HUNGARIAN CRISIS.
[TO THE EDITOR OF THE "SPECTATOR."]
Sin,—The outlook in Hungary is to-day blacker than ever. The informal negotiations which have been proceeding since the beginning of December have now definitely fallen through. The attempt of Dr. von Luktics, the ex-Minister of Finance, to induce the Coalition to take up office on terms acceptable to the Emperor has proved beyond his powers. A last effort was made by Dr. Wekerle to arrange such terms with the Coalition as would permit the formation of a transition Ministry, destined to tide over the period until the Coalition was prepared to take office. The sole functions of such a Ministry would have been to summon Parliament after its long prorogation, and to obtain from it Constitutional sanction for the new commercial treaties and the Customs tariff, opposition to which has been withdrawn by the Coalition.
As neither of these compromises has succeeded, only two courses remain open to the Fejervtiry Cabinet. When Parliament assembles on March 1st it may be treated to a further term of prorogation, but in the present state of feeling in Hungary this move might possibly be met by a refusal to disperse without at least a formal protest against the Government's action, such as would' render Baron Fejervtiry's continuance in office finally im- possible. One does not need to search far in English history for a similar situation; the incidents of the Grand Remonstrance or of the Five Members might be repeated with equally momentous results. The only alternative policy is Dissolution, and while this involves infinitely greater risks, it is the course most likely to be pursued. According to Constitutional usage, Dissolution must be followed by new elections within three months. But the present Govern- ment has, of course, not the faintest prospect of obtaining a majority as the result of an appeal to the country. On the con- trary, its few remaining supporters would probably be blotted out, and the Kossuth Party would secure an overwhelming triumph at the polls, such as would throw even the new British elections into the shade. Instead of baying to deal with the present Coalition, the Emperor would then be confronted by a united party, no longer dependent upon the Constitutional groups which adhere to Dualism ; and the "Personal Union" policy would soon find its way to the front of M. Kossuth's programme. "The Party of Independence does not yet control an absolute majority, but it will attain this when the unstained banner of 1848 is unfurled before the nation." These words of Count Apponyi (at Miskolcz on January 18th) are significant of the prevailing temper. "I know," he added, "that absolutism will soon throw off its last mask."
The sole result, then, of Dissolution must be an attempt to govern without Parliament,—that is, against the Constitu- tion; and what this might lead to no man living can foresee. It would in any case mean a sacrifice of the present Emperor's lifework, and would finally destroy the splendid edifice reared by Deiik's labours. Francis Joseph is the first Haps- burg Sovereign who has obtained or deserved the confidence of the Hungarian people, and his relapse into the old methods of Joseph II., Francis II., and Ferdinand V. would prove a fatal and lamentable error. Even as it is, there is a widespread feeling in Hungary that his non possumus attitude in the Army question
is due to lack of confidence in Magyai loyalty, at least on the part of the Court. That arbitrary measuron would fall as sparks on highly inflammable material is clearly shown by the growing impatience and excitement in the Comitats. The boycott of Count Pallavicini, the mock-funeral at Ungver, the assault upon Sheriff Kovacs at Debreczen on January 2nd (when he was dragged through the town on an open hearse and belaboured by the furious crowd), are merely the most notorious incidents in a well-organised and obstinate resistance to the unconstitutional acts of Fejervary's nominees.
Until the die is actually cast, it is wiser to abstain from all speculation as to the possible outcome of a new attempt at absolutism in Hungary. Yet it should not be forgotten that a Dissolution will deprive the Magyar leaders of their Parliamentary immunity ! Baron Fejervery's calculation, that a Radical programme, with universal suffrage as its tit-bit, would win over the masses for the Government, has proved signally false ; and the Coalition leaders can count upon the almost unanimous support of the nation. But it is peculiarly unfortunate that the Hungarian crisis should reach its height at the very moment when the Constitution in Austria is to be placed on a democratic basis, and when the most far-reaching but as yet uncertain changes lie already in the near future. The sands of time are fast running out, and it is earnestly to be hoped that even at the eleventh hour an agreement may be reached. Surely with such singularly able mediators as MM. Szell, Lukics, and Wekerle, this ought not to be impossible.
Meanwhile, the continuance of the crisis has weakened the external position of Austria-Hungary, and is probably one of the chief causes of the daring attitude of Servia towards her powerful neighbour in the matter of the Customs Union with Bulgaria. And in this connection it is well to note M. Kossuth's public assertion that Hungary has no aims in the Balkans. Without disrespect to that distinguished statesman, this pronouncement may safely be compared to the famous electioneering tactic, "Don't put him under the pump" For its object was surely not so much to proclaim the disinterestedness of Hungary, as to draw attention to Austria's sinister designs of expansion in Macedonia, and thus to enlist Balkan sympathy in the Magyar cause. How- ever this may be, there is no doubt that Count Goluchowski's position is considerably shaken, and that his former defence of Magyar interests at Bucharest does not render him any the less unpopular at Budapest to-day. The sadden prominence given to Austria-Hungary in the recent naval demonstration at Mitylene was a mere flash in the pan, which deceived no one, least of all the Sultan ; for its real causes are to be sought, not in her neigh- bour's confidence in Austria's strength, but rather in the temporary eclipse of Russia, and in the wise policy of self-effacement lately adopted by Lord Lansdowne. The paralysis of the Dual Monarchy is one aspect of current European politics which has not perhaps received sufficient attention in England, and this is the more surprising since Vienna is the real pivot of the balance of power. Austrian weakness cuts both ways. It deprives Germany of her chief military ally in the event of a war, and, on the other hand, it offers a permanent temptation to the predatory instincts of the Pan-German League, whose " dovecotes " (veritable sucking- doves !) are more than usually stirred by Baron von Gautsch's project of electoral reform. The relations of Austria and Germany deserve careful study at the present juncture, and not least from those who, like myself, aro strongly Germanophil in sympathy.
—I am, Sir, &c., SCOTUS VIATOR.
Vienna, January 23rd, 1906.
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