27 JULY 1895, Page 9

THE ARMENIAN QUESTION.

INOW that the dust and confusion of the General Elec- tion have subsided, Lord Salisbury will be able to turn his attention to foreign affairs, and not too soon, for if we mistake not, there is a thorny question not merely in each hemisphere, but in every continent. Lord Rose- bery's one strong point was supposed to be foreign affairs, but we venture to say that if the country ever learns what Lord Salisbury learned as to our position when he first went to his Department, they will take a very different view of the matter. Nerveless dexterity and supple ingenuity may do for a time in home politics, but when they are tried against, and in competition with, the ablest of European diplomatists, they mean a series of tergiversations and humiliations. Fortunately Lord Salisbury is just the man to get the affairs of the nation put into better case. He has a profound knowledge of foreign affairs, he is greatly respected in Europe, and not a little feared, and he has at his back a virtually unanimous people prepared to trust his judgment and enforce it. In only one quarter of the world are we the least anxious as to Lord Salisbury's policy. We doubt whether in the case of Armenia he is pre- pared to act quite as strongly and with as clear a purpose as he ought, if he is to make England play a part which is worthy of her. That Lord Salisbury is sincerely anxious to help the Christian populations of Armenia, and to put an end to Turkish misrule, we do not doubt for a moment. Our fear is that he may take up an attitude of despair in the matter. His fault is a certain inclina- tion towards pessimism in public affairs, and we feel that there is a danger of his arguing that the attempt to relieve the Armenian Christians may only end in greater miseries for them and for the whole world, by raising the Eastern question in its acutest and most aggravated form, and that, therefore, any scheme for succouring them must be strictly limited and conditioned by the dread of ulterior difficulties.

We believe that this pessimistic way of treating the matter is in reality likely to lead to far greater evils than those it seeks to avoid. The Eastern question is a stinging-nettle that had much better be grasped boldly and firmly. Lord Rosebery made little or no progress in the matter of relieving Armenia, because he would do nothing except in conjunction with the other Powers,—would take, that is, no independent action of his own. We trust that Lord Salisbury will assume a line worthier of the position of England, and will insist upon the Turk taking real measures for the better government of Asia Minor, whether he is able to secure the co-operation of the Powers, or not. The Sultan's policy is trembling in the balance. Hitherto he has hung back from doing what is required of him because he hoped that the result of the Elections would help him. If he finds out that he was mistaken, and that British policy has not changed except to become stronger, he will probably be induced to yield with little or no difficulty. We do not desire to enter here into details of what our policy should be. It may be noted, however, that the one essential thing is that the Powers should be given the right of superintending the carrying-out of reforms, and that the new Governor of, or Commissioner for, Armenia should feel himself responsible not to the Sultan, but to Europe. We care very little whether the Governor is a Christian or a Mahommedan, so long as he feels that his tenure of office depends upon the goodwill of the Embassies and not on that of the Porte. To put it plainly, the Governor of Armenia must, on the one hand, not be dis- missed without the leave of the Powers ; and on the other, they must have power to enforce his dismissal. If the Governor or Commissioner is removable at will by the Sul- tan, he will feel that he may at any moment be overthrown by a Palace intrigue. Especially will this be the case if, like Shakir Pasha, the official just nominated, he is a Mahom- medan. Some one will whisper at Court that he is a bad Mahommedan, and if this is confirmed locally, the Sultan, who is not only personally somewhat of a fanatic, but who believes that his very existence as a monarch is bound up with an exhibition of strenuous Mahommedanism, will be certain to take alarm, and to compass the downfall of the Governor. But the charge of being a bad Mahommedan is certain to be confirmed locally in the case of an im- partial Governor. The man who prevents the Turks from treating the Christians as their natural prey, who really holds the balance fairly and prevents pillage and outrage in the homes of the Christians, or who punishes their per- petrators, will soon come to be regarded as the enemy of the faithful. If the new Governor of Armenia is to be directly dismissible by the Porte, he will be forced to secure his position by allowing a certain amount of oppression and outrage. If, however, he knows not only that he cannot be dismissed by the Sultan, but that he will certainly be got rid of on a protest from the Powers, he may be relied on to keep some sort of hold on the Turkish population of the province. Dependence on the goodwill of the Sultan means, sooner or later, the old tale of murder and rapine. Dependence upon the Powers will mean respect for the public opinion of Europe. And a strong policy in Armenia not only commends itself as the safest and wisest policy judged by external considerations. It is also the safest and wisest policy at home. If Lord Salisbury fails to take a strong line in Armenia, and if the Turks, as they almost certainly will, argue therefrom that they are to be allowed their own way in the matter of massacres, the effect at home will be most disastrous. Already missionaries and special correspon- dents are, it is said, convinced that there is very grave danger of another outbreak of massacre in Armenia. All that is wanted to produce another outbreak of fanaticism and outrage is the spread of the belief that England's atti- tude has changed, and that Turkey is not to be interfered with. Of course Lord Salisbury will mean anything rather than to give such a hint, but the Turks are stupid, and it may well happen that they will treat a lack of strength in dealing with the Sultan as evidence that they are to have their will with the Christian people in Armenia. But another and worse massacre in and round Van, and it is nothing less that is feared, would create an outburst of feeling in England such as characterised the agitation as to the Bul- garian atrocities. We should see Mr. Gladstone back on the platform, and the Gladstonian party trying to put the whole blame on the Ministry. Under such circumstances, Lord Salisbury would have to do one of two things,—either to face a great outbreak of popular feeling which would be as strong among his own supporters as among the Opposition, or else to let the force of opinion carry him into violent diplomatic action, which very likely would be ill-judged and indefensible. Then indeed we should see the Eastern question raised with a vengeance. Is it worth while to risk not only a new massacre, but also so disagreeable a situation, in order to avoid deciding what- we mean to do about Russia's claim to go some day to Constantinople ?—for that is in a great measure the ex. planation of the dread felt by English statesmen in regard to raising the Eastern question. That, however, is not the present question. Our object is to point out that if the result of any weakness in dealing with the Armenian question should be a fresh massacre, the Opposition will be given their one chance of injuring the Ministry.

While on the subject of Armenia, and the dealings of the Porte with its Turkish subjects, we must not forget to refer the very able and informing article on Islam in the current number of the Quarterly. We are glad to see the Quarterly adding the weight of its authority to the pro. position that effectual protection for the Christian popula- tions of Turkey cannot be obtained in provinces which are not under the tutelage of Europe.