THE GERMAN ELECTIONS.
THE immense increase in the German Socialist vote, striking as it is, will not, we imagine, produce any immediate, far less any dramatic, consequences. The remaining groups in the Reichstag will only draw closer to the reactionaries ; and divided though the Conservatives are, they will still retain in the aggregate a large majority. They will not refuse supplies when they are urgently demanded ; and except as regards loans or new taxes, the Executive in Germany is almost independent of the Parlia- ment. The Emperor selects his own Ministers, he is not bound to remove them because of a vote of censure, and it is he who keeps the governing machine in motion rather than any Department. All armed force is directly at his own disposal, " the keen edge of the sword," as he bald on Saturday last, " supporting his policy," and his fiat promotes or displaces every civil servant. The responsibility of Ministers to the people which is the foundation of British liberty does not, in short, exist in Germany or any State of the Federation, and Parliament might, with a little exaggeration, be described, as President Johnson described Congress, as a " body hanging on to the skirts of the Government." It is even believed that a Bill greatly restricting the suffrage could be forced through ; while in the last resort a decree suspending the Constitution would not produce a revolution, and could not, while military discipline remained intact, produce a rising. Germany, in fact, though not an autocracy, remains a true Monarchy, in which the Emperor possesses all initiative and almost all restraining or guiding power. In such a Monarchy changes in the Parliamentary representation can never be of immediate or first-rate importance.
Nevertheless, the result of the elections will exercise some direct, and probably much indirect, influence on the policy of the German Empire. The Government, in spite of all its self-derived strength, wishes greatly for the support of the Reichstag, and in order to secure its majority, will be thrown back more and more on unpopular parties. It will be unable to break with the Ultramontane Centre or with the Agrarians, and each of these groups asks heavy concessions in return for its obedience. The policy of the Empire demands large expenditure, and the reluctance of Ministers to ask for means from increased taxation will be greatly increased. They will avoid, when possible, expensive " improvements " either in the Army or Navy or public works, and they will threaten Dissolution less frequently when opposed. Nothing succeeds like success, and a penal Dissolution might result in revealing four millions of Socialists instead of three. They will still uphold the Weltpolitik as an ideal, but in a more hesitating way, and they will still prosecute for lese- majeste, but with a keener perception of the irritation such prosecutions provoke which will not be without its effect upon the Courts. The fact that a third of the people is radically opposed to their views, and that this third is continually securing recruits, will never be absent from their minds, and will to a certain extent hamper the energy of their subordinates, who now, having their instructions and being sure of approval and support, act with the mechanical regularity of highly disciplined soldiers. It would not strengthen the officers in a regiment to know that every third man detested the Articles of War, especially if they themselves had lingering doubts whether those Articles were altogether justifiable or expedient. We look to see the Government of Germany slightly less confident, though possibly more bitter, with this effect, among others, that it will search more carefully for those who can defend it ably both in speech and writing. That means of necessity a little more influence for the " philosophers," as distinguished from the administrators and the men of the sword. The last two are devotees of the "system " ; and hatred of the " system," which protects militarism, caste privilege, government by police, and heavy taxes on food, is evidently growing year by year. It is not devotion to the Socialist idea which swells the Socialist ranks, but belief that the Socialist party is the one most opposed to repressive legislation, and most determined to lift the burdens that press most heavily on the body of the people. Socialism thrives in Germany because Socialists are the only party which the German masses can rely on to be always Liberal. It is not a redistribution of property which the masses seek, but less repressive government. Hitherto the Socialists have done little towards securing their aim ; but the increase in their numbers will render them more desirous of obtaining positive benefits, and will bring to their side men with the practical ability to secure them. It is the misfortune of German Socialists, as of all extreme parties, that their leaders are usually theorists, the men who can govern, even when they sympathise with them in part, shrinking from their exaggerations and wild plans A strong party, however, soon throws out strong men, the dreamers are thrust aside, and the Socialists, cheered by success and led by men of modera- tion, may soon begin asking, not for a monopoly of the means of production, which is their present cry, and which would involve the expropriation of all peasant freeholds, but for the things they really need,—Ministerial responsi- bility, lighter taxes, lighter military service, and the abolition of the laws which make all political criticism so frightfully dangerous that outside Parliament nobody dare speak an objection to authority in a voice above a whisper.
The greatest effect of the elections, however, must be upon the position of the Emperor himself. It must reveal, in part at least, to William IL, as it reveals to the rest of the world, that his charm, and the charm of his ideas for his own subjects, are less than had been imagined. He has discoursed to them of his divine right, and has been rewarded often with applause ; but the applause has never been quite sincere. He has not convinced Herr Bebel, and Herr Bebel had eleven seats placed at his disposal. In return for the increase of his authority the Emperor has offered a world-policy, a much larger Navy, a great in- crease in the power of interfering everywhere in the world; and of all parties the one which has prospered most is that which rejects all these things. The Emperor wants to spend on his pet ideas, and the Socialists, in protesting fiercely on behalf of economy, reject those pet ideas. The Emperor, most unwillingly we believe, has given way to the Agrarians, whose one idea is to make food_ a monopoly of German growers, and the masses in reply have swollen the ranks of the partywhose first article of faith is that what- ever taxes are imposed, they shall not be placed on food. The Emperor after the tragedy of Essen denounced all Socialists as enemies of society, but the only effect of the denuncia- tion has been to swell the ranks of the denounced. It is impossible that a nation should make such a reply, yet leave its ruler's position unmoved; specially impossible when that ruler has concentrated on himself all national regards, and in himself most of the vitality of the Adminis- tration. The Emperor has in effect been saying for five years, I am the State' ; and a third of his people now answer, The State is not to our liking.' It is quite possible—for the Emperor is able, though he usually learns only from the thoughts which arise in his own mind—that he may benefit by the rough lesson, and reflect less on his grandfather's, and more on his father's, example. Think what the general vote would have been had the Emperor Frederick been reigning till to-day, and had asked from his people formal approval of his policy. Herr Bebel, at least, would have led no party, and the Crown would have carried its measures by acclaim, instead of by little bargains with groups on whose objects, as in the Agrarian case and the case of the Centre, it secretly looks askance. If, however, the Emperor has not learned his lesson, he will find in the next five years, if not before, that a policy which in a military Monarchy breeds Socialists at the rate of two hundred thousand a year has in it none of the elements of permanent success. Courts are like Churches, they must make converts or they cannot live. The Hohenzollerns have made them by the million in their past history, but they are not making them now.
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