Rules of the game
AMERICA MURRAY KEMPTON
New York—Did not Madame de Sta0 once judge that Benjamin Constant was no longer in love with her because he was beginning to take pains with his appearance? Governor Reagan of California appears to be sending out signals as plain. He must be running for Presi- dent: he is starting to make mistakes.
His television appearance the day before he embarked from here for a conference of state governors aboard the cruise ship 'Indepen- dence' was designed obviously to make him conspicuous for saying things which no other politician had said before him. The temptation to be original cannot usually be acted on with profit by ambitious members of the party of Opposition a year before the campaign begins, and Governor Reagan's essay was not an ex- ception. President Johnson is, he said, winning the Vietnam war and concealing the achieve- ment until he can announce it for the maxi- mum political effect.
Having discovered this least plausible of presidential deceptions, Governor Reagan then set forth to inject into the governors' con- ference a full measure of the rancour among first-class passengers only to be expected on Caribbean cruises. Until now, our Presidents have been able to count on the kindness of the governors to offer them support and com- fort on every year's anniversary of the Vietnam involvement. The Republican governors would have liked very much to avoid that expression of solidarity this year, partly because so many of them have lost hope for the business and partly because we approach an election in which the Republicans would be saints if they refused to take at lea,st subliminal advantage of the prevailing dissatisfaction with the Presi- dent's conduct of the war.
Governor Reagan managed to provide the Republican governors with the excuse they needed to abandon their prior commitment to Mr Johnson; but he did it by methods suffi- ciently unappetising to do him more harm than it did the President. Mr Johnson had installed former Governor Price Daniel of Texas aboard the 'Independence' as his lobbyist, with an assignment to hold the governors in line on the war. Governor Daniel is a man without aggressions; and the White House could not resist fortifying him with a stream of exhor- tations and reminders by telegraph. One of these telegrams was a lengthy memorandum to Governor Daniel on prior expressions of sup- port of the war by particular Republican governors. This telegram fell into the hands of Governor Reagan, who promptly made it public. The circumstances which gave Gover- nor Reagan this advantage may or may not have been excusable; his taking it was not an action whose morality is subject to debate.
The Republican governors, of course, seized on the excuse of presidential pressure, of which they could hardly have been ignorant even without this evidence, as exempting them from the obligation to support the resolution the President desired. But, in the end, Mr Johnson stood forth at worst as a man who schemes to hold his allies, hardly a sharp practice or one any of us are surprised to see him employ- ing, while Governor Reagan stands forth as a man who opens messages addressed to other men.
The governors, of course, were glad of an excuse to be quit of Vietnam, an issue about which most politicians now seek to avoid any fixture of commitment. They were unlikely, however, to be grateful to the man who pro- vided it for them. Governor Reagan strongly suggests that he is not the sort of man who lives by the accepted professional rules, and he is un- likely henceforth to commend himself to those brokers he would need in the end to get the nomination. Mr Nixon, who is far more trusting than his nature or his experience ought to have made him, has a clear warning now that Governor Reagan should not be believed in his private assurances that he will not become an active candidate. But, from the form of the past week, Mr Nixon, as a non-voyager, gained most of the advantages from this trip; Governor Romney, his liberal rival, did little to recoup the damage he had lately suffered, and Governor Reagan, his conservative rival, inflicted upon himself some damage of his own. More and more Mr Nixon looks like coming out on top by default.
President Johnson, of course, could by now be little damaged by being exposed in a plot so comparatively innocent; his real troubles lie in the slow erosion of his popular support, which, unless arrested, must have dramatic results. The progress of those Democrats who are moving from far below to displace him as their party's nominee in 1968 seems closer to their wild aspirations than reason could possibly have suggested when they began. Three years ago the President was so compul- sive a party housekeeper that he could not endure the sight of an ashtray unemptied; now the weeds are all over his property.
California, always an important portent, is the most dramatic case. The anti-Johnson Demo- crats of California are now mounting a slate of convention delegates against the President; its management is impressively professional. The last state-wide poll showed Mr Johnson with only a 42:39 advantage over his enemies; and this edge is unlikely to survive the current dis- sensions among the state's Democratic regulars. Former Governor Brown and Mayor Yorty of Los Angeles agree only in their support of Mr Johnson and their hatred of one another. The prospect, then, is for a primary offering one Johnson slate loyal to Brown, another Johnson slate loyal to Yorty, a slate pledged to former Governor Wallace of Alabama, and the slate fielded by the rebels, who could hardly lose in a contest thus confused.
The President's approaching embarrassment is more tangible here than anywhere else. But the general malaise suggests that an attractive candidate in the Democratic primaries, with- out being able to gain a great deal himself, could cost the President much of what remains of his prestige.
In these delicate circumstances, it seemed rather careless of Secretary of State Rusk, even acknowledging his need to quarrel with some- one new every day, to select this particular juncture to quarrel with Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota. For Senator McCarthy (and not Senator Robert Kennedy) is the one consequential Democrat who just might offer himself as an alternative to Mr Johnson in the party primaries. He is much less conten- tious than Senator Kennedy, and far better disposed to the President's person. But it is always a mistake to force a quarrel on people who do not make a habit of quarrelling; they are apt to take the occasion seriously. Unfortu- nately the record suggests that, if you give Mr Johnson and Secretary Rusk a bad situation, they are the ones to make it worse.
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