WHEN NEWSPAPERS ARE KINNOCKED
the industry is robust enough to survive Labour rule
THE national newspaper circulation fig- ures do not make encouraging reading for most of the established titles. If we take average sales during the six-month period October 1989–March 1990, compared with the same months during 1988-89, all but two are down, some by substantial amounts. The exceptions are the Financial Times, which is up 2.8 per cent over the year, and sold an average of 294,713 copies in March, agreeably close to the 300,000 barrier, and the Evening Standard, which put on a remarkable 8 per cent and with a March figure of 537,538 is now well over the half-million mark again. Two big losers were the Sun, which dropped 251,281 sales, or 6 per cent, and has slipped below four million, and the News of the World which dropped nearly 5 per cent and, with a March average of 5,060,180, is in immi- nent danger of dropping below five mil- lion. By comparison, the Maxwell tabloids did better but still lost a lot of sales: the combined Daily Mirror and (Scottish) Dai- ly Record dropped 88,647 or 2.2 per cent, the Sunday Mirror 105,996 (3.5 per cent), the People 70,288 (2.5 per cent). Another big loser was the Sunday Express, which dropped 203,923 or over 10 per cent. Even the Mail on Sunday, a big gainer in recent Years, found itself 78,651 (4 per cent) the poorer. The only tabloid winner was 'Alpert Murdoch's Today, which put on another 11,426 (2 per cent) sales, and is on Course to make its first profit when it moves into the refurbished Wapping plant later this year. The losses at the Sunday Express and Mail on Sunday presumably reflect some damage inflicted by the arrival of two new qualities in the field, the Correspondent and the Sunday Independent. They have hurt people all over the place of course. The most lightly bruised is the Sunday Tunes, which dropped 89,032 or 6.7 per cent over the year but actually sold more copies (1,230,256) in March than in Febru- ary and appears to have got over the worst of the storm. Indeed it more completely dominates its field than any other competi- tive paper in Britain today, and leafing through the current issue it is not hard to see why — it has a great deal more to offer, though to my mind it is lamentably lacking in intellectual distinction. The Sunday Telegraph lost over 10 per cent of its readers over the year, dropping 12,000 odd during March, bringing its average down to 582,234. It is now the Number Two in the category but only because the losses at the Observer have been still more severe. Down a calamitous 15.5 per cent over the year, it shrank by 28,576 in March, bring- ing its average down to 555,310. Not that the newcomers have done well either. The Correspondent averaged only 270,036 dur- ing its first six months and is sliding. The February figure was down to 223,841 and in March there was an average loss of 19,468, bringing the total to 204,373. The decline of the Sunday Independent, from a much higher starting-point to be sure, has been even more precipitous, from an aver- age of 453,749 in February to 369,420 in March. As the Sunday populars have lost 814,515 over the year and the 'old' heavies 267,495, it can be seen that the total number of Sunday newspapers sold has fallen sharply, despite the fact that there are now 11 papers instead of nine. Among the quality dailies, the outlook is a little brighter, since the Independent is still doing handsomely. It put on another 16,159 sales over the year, a gain of 4 per cent, against losses by the Times of 1.7 and the Guardian of 1.2 per cent. The Guar- dian appears to have slowed the rate of its decline and is now slightly ahead of the Times, selling an average of 439,717 in March against 438,347. But with the Inde- pendent's March average up to 421,762, it is now within striking distance of both of 'Can I pay the charge with my Access card?' them. The Daily Telegraph's losses were more serious than either the Guardian's or the Times's, a fall of 27,452 or 2.4 per cent over the year, and the March figure shows it below the critical 1.1 million mark at 1,094,354. On the other hand, the belief at the Telegraph is that with the appointment of Simon Jenkins as editor of the Times the heat will be off from that quarter as the Times, Guardian and Independent battle it out for supremacy at the top end of the market. That may be wishful thinking but more solid grounds for cheer are provided by the financial position of the Telegraph Group, which is now one of the most profitable newspaper ventures in Britain.
There are, indeed, certain paradoxes about the health of the national newspaper industry. Signs of recession, especially in the retail trade, have hit advertising hard. Commercial television, despite its monopoly position, is facing a real dearth for the first time in a quarter of a century. Nearly all newspapers are feeling the pinch too. Nevertheless the breaking of the unions continues to make most papers profitable, at any rate if well managed. Not only is the print wage bill under control but management can now respond approp- riately to adverse trading conditions by taking tough decisions and introducing yet more technical savings without having to argue with the unions and pay them danegeld. This happy situation in London is one reason why the New York newspap- ers, led by the Daily News, are at last finding the courage to take on the unre- generate unions there.
But how long will the post-Wapping golden age in London last? My reply is just so long as Labour is kept out of office. The priceless photograph of Neil Kinnock giv- ing the clenched first salute at the Mandela pop concert is a reminder that we should never underestimate his ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. All the same, the possibility of a Labour govern- ment must now be taken seriously and its effects calculated. As the trades union movement has, if anything, drifted to the Left in the last year or so, and many of its leaders are determined that the party they own shall repeal the Thatcher union leg- islation in toto, we must expect a revival of the print-unions' morale from the moment Kinnock enters No. 10, and a recovery of their statutory privileges within a year. That would rapidly lead to a loss of titles, as well as a general fall in profitability. Which would go down? Hard to say, but my guess is that the casualties would include either the Guardian or the Inde- pendent, the People and two out of three of the Observer, Independent on Sunday and Correspondent. Thus a Kinnock triumph could well lead to a rout of the left and centre-left press. It would not be the first time the Labour movement has shot its allies in the back and would at least, amid the national catastrophe, provide a lugub- rious note of black comedy.
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