Forman first
Patrick Cosg rave
Perhaps the only connection between Carshalton, where polling takes place on March 11, and Coventry is the fact that the Conservative candidate in the former seat fought Coventry North East in 1974; and that makes him the only candidate so far in the Carshalton field who had Previous election experience. Carshalton, You will remember, became vacant when Mr Robert Carr decided to throw up the hurly. burly of the Commons for the more statesmanlike comfort of the House Of Lords, but his old constituency had a little bit of combative history, enough to make him—a senior minister and a vital Part of Mr Heath's national campaign in the winter of 1974—spend a lot of time there during that difficult February. He had sat comfortably for Mitcham for many Years, but, following redistribution, was adopted for the new seat of Carshalton, carved out of part of the old Mitcham and Part of Sir Walter Elliot's fief: he decided, given the then flow of the Liberal tide, to treat the place as a marginal. He held it by more than 5000 votes in February, and by 3698 in October 1974.
These are not stunning figures, and the Tory fighting now—young Mr Nigel Forman, who is on leave of absence from his job as an Assistant Director of the Conservative Research Department (in charge of policy co-ordination)—exhibits the same combination of nervousness and confidence as did Lord Carr in 1974. I will, however, make so bold as to offer to eat my hat (buying one especially for the purpose) if he loses the seat; and 1 will nibble deeply into the brim if he does not considerably increase the Conservative majority. The fact IS that—like, say, Cambridge—Carshalton IS one of those naturally Tory seats which go Labour only in landslide years like 1966, and go Liberal only during one of those Infrequent but (for the major parties) heartstopping upsurges of that party. And It has to be said that the present is no time for a Labour landslide; and no time for a
Liberal surge either.
The essentially Conservative nature of the constituency is seen in two of its three parts—the broad central swathe of o""occupiers and the large, but settled u. reasonably prosperous, 1930s council estate. The third section—the newer and still somewhat unsettled council estates—are naturally Labour-inclined. Oddly enough, given current Labour myth-making about the depressed 'thirties, the council housing dating from that period is spacious—perhaps even grand—bystoday's standard; and it is here that Mr Forman makes the most of that favourite old Tory campaign promise—to make it not just possible but easy for council tenants to buy their homes. Labour, of course, are opposed in principle to any such notions; and the Liberals— who have not for a long time issued a policy statement on the subject—are markedly less enthusiastic than the Tories. After 1970 the Conservative government was somewhat surprised at the small number of council tenants who took up the offer to purchase; but there is little doubt that many in Carshalton respond to the rallying cry which offers them a choice; and Mr Forman and his helpers are wise to make it loud and often.
If the Tories are certain to win the Liberals have most to lose. Their vote of 8,272 last time was a substantial-4.7 per cent— drop from February, on a 74.3 per cent poll. But their February voting percentage represented an increase of 8.6 per cent over 1970, and was thus indicative of the continuing strength of the Liberal revival, the greatest triumph in which was Mr Graham Tope's victory in neighbouring Sutton and Cheam. The Liberal standard bearer, Mr John Hatherley, is a new candidate—replacing the delightfully named Mrs Hester Smallbone: he is forty-six, teaches locally, and comes from South Africa, and his campaign is essentially of the Liberal type that I called 'crusading' a couple of weeks ago. He knows, and his helpers know, that they must keep their poll (adjusted downwards, of course, to allow for the decreased by-election turnout) to at least October 1974 levels. Otherwise Mr Cyril Smith will seem a fool after his statements that the grass roots Liberal party is stronger than ever; and the weakening of Liberal support which began between the two general elections of 1974 will, evidently, have turned into a rot.
Carshalton is not, of course, the kind of seat the Liberals could hope to win—they were 10000 behind Labour last time out—
except in very exceptional circumstances. But it is the kind of place, socially and economically, where they do very well during periods of discontent with the Tories. Perhaps the best present Mr Forman could give Mrs Thatcher would be a sub stantial cut in the adjusted Liberal vote; for that would signal the beginning of a Conservative campaign aginst the bedrock of the Liberal vote throughout the South, a campaign based on the cry that an anti Socialist vote cast for the Liberals is a vote wasted.
It is curious that—if I am right about the essential nature of the constituency and the way it is likely to behave on March 11—the Labour Party should find itself essentially a spectator in a seat where it has run so strongly in second place. And. to be fair, there is no trace of defeatism about the Labour campaign. Their new man, Mr Colin Blau, is a forty-year-old social work heavyweight, who has temporarily deserted his job as Controller of Social Work Services in Tower Hamlets, for the honour of breaking a lance for Mr Wilson. His background is wholly in the tougher areas of social deprivation—he was a big wheel in Lambeth for several years—and he waxes passionate on housing and mental health. But he is not a social work egghead, and depressed though his team is by having to defend the Government's public expenditure cuts in the stronger Labour areas—ar at least detach the candidate from them— he is more likely than most to keep the Labour vote up. The only thing, indeed, that seems to get Mr Blau down is the declining fortune of Crystal Palace, which he supports with the same keenness as he does opera and ballet.
Now, by-elections are a matter of psychology as much as of practical politics. They can have a remarkable effect, sometimes on the national mood, always among party rank and file. Winston Churchill—who fought five during his long political life— observed, 'It is melancholy, when one reflects on our brief span, to think that no less than fourteen months of life [he was including general elections] have been passed in this wearing clatter.' But some, in retrospect, are landmarks. Orpington foretold Tory doom; Devizes offered the flickering prospect of a Tory revival. Hull gave the signal for a Labour massacre of the Opposition; and Sutton and Cheam delivered a warning which Mr Heath never understood. Carshalton--unlike, possibly, Coventry—is not in that class. After all, Mr Forman needs to produce merely a small swing —say two per cent—for Central Office apologists, extrapolating the figures, to announce to immediately uplifted Tory followers that Mrs Thatcher is home and dry at the next general election. It need not of course, be so. But there are certainly at least medium size stakes to play for here. If Labour takes a hammering both the Labour left and the Conservatives will be strengthened. If the Liberals are trounced then all prospects of their revival before the next national contest will vanish. Anyway, it seems safe enough even now to welcome to the House of Commons a Tory candidate rather out of the run of the smooth-faced young men who have carried the party banner so often in the recent past. For Mr Forman is a scholar, shy, it is true, of using his doctorate; but an expert not only on Churchill, but on Churchill and Europe; and he has begun what may well be a distinguished career.
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