Heir Presumptuous

By BERNARD LEVIN

So Mr. Gaitskell's running dog has decided, at last, to bite! On the steps of the conference hall at Scarborough, on the morning after the defence debate (at the end of which, it will be recalled. Mr. Wilson had decided against showing his hand then and there, the voting figures having been less encouraging of overt be- trayal than anyone had expected) a loyalist said to me that 'if he is at the Despatch Box making the same faded jol;ei next Budget Day, then there is something seriously wrong with the Parliamentary Party.' Mr. Wilson's be- haviour at Scarborough, both behind and before the scenes, was guaranteed to fill any reasonably objective observer with warm and friendly feel- ings towards Benedict Arnold. Now, at any rate, though it would be a laughably oversimplified reading of the situation to say that we know where Mr. Wilson stands, we can be sure that, as another loyalist called him (the language is a measure of the feeling towards • Mr. Wilson), `this festering sore of treason' will from now on at least be festering in the open.

Even the gloomiest in the loyalist camp, after all, and indeed the most optimistic in the other

lot, do not expect Mr. Wilson actually to beat Mr. Gaitskell (the closest margin I have yet heard mentioned from any quarter is thirty-five and, for reasons I shall presently give, I expect it to be a very great deal wider than that, and in fact wider than the general expectation on both sides). It is inconceivable after this election that even Mr. Wilson could then stand for the Parliamen- tary Committee, and even if he did it is incon- ceivable that he would be elected. So that he will then presumably retire to the back benches and lead the dissidents from there. Which may not be so bad a prospect as some of the loyalists imagine. Apart from anything else, Mr. Wilson's army will be—only, I hasten to add, as far as the motley nature of its formation is concerned—rather like the Republican forces that George Orwell had pointed out to him when he arrived in Spain. There, said his interlocutor, were the Anarchists, there the Communists, there the Socialists, there the Syndicalists, there the Trotskyites. But, in- quired the bewildered Orwell, surely we were all united in fighting the other side?

Orwell lived to know that we were by no means united in fighting the other side, and I think Mr. Wilson will live to find the same thing. One of the most encouraging things about the whole business is that nobody in the dissident faction

can possibly have any illusions about Mr. Wilson. They will vote for him because he represents the best available means of downing Mr. Gaitskell, which is in turn the first step towards doing what- ever they want to do. But all of them, whether they are against Gaitskell because they are nuclear disarmers, Clause Four fundamentalists, or Communists, or because they are none of these things but simply hate him and wish to bring him down, know exactly what Mr. Harold Wilson is.

It follows therefore that however large the minority, its impact on the loyalists must become progressively weaker, as each of its component parts insists ever more strongly on its programme being inscribed exclusively on the rebel banner. For they cannot, in the nature of Mr. Wilson, be welded together by any feelings of loyalty to or admiration for him; and he in turn cannot grapple them to him with hoops of steel except by embracing their views. And agile though he is, and skilled in the uses of at least seven types of ambiguity, this should speedily reduce him to a laughing-stock; a laughing-stock, mark, not among his opponents, for whom he has never been anything else, but among the ranks of his newly raised army. It involves, after all, one day embracing Mr. Zilliacus's view that the Soviet Government are our friends and allies against the imperialist-Fascist warmongers of Wall Street and the Pentagon, and another day cleaving to Mr. Wigg's defence of the nuclear deterrent. Anon it means that he must be in favour of Britain's leaving NATO, anon of Britain's stay- ing in NATO (and anon a decision has to be taken and Mr. Wilson must needs be in favour of both). Now he must believe that a future Labour Government should buy a con- trolling interest in 500 companies, now that such a government should nationalise outright the entire means of production, distribution and thingumbob.

What hope has Mr. Wilson, who by then will be fulfilling exactly President Truman's definition of a revolving s.o.b. ('a revolving s.o.b. is a man who is an s.o.b. whichever way you look at him'), of so imposing his personality on the Labour Party that it will either turn to and overthrow Mr. Gaitskell, or that—if it does overthrow Mr. Gaitskell—it will choose Mr. Wilson to succeed him?

Of course, it might be argued that one ray of light through the clouds is that even if the im- possible should happen and Mr. Wilson succeed in stealing the sceptre, he will find that there is no throne. An electorate which rejects a party led by Hugh Gaitskell is not, in any circumstances whatsoever, going to choose a party led by Harold Wilson. But this is a small, sad consola- tion, and in any case Mr. Wilson is so essentially small-minded a man that he really will be per- suaded that •he has arrived if he becomes Leader of the Opposition.

The first task, then, is to prevent that hap- pening. And first, the election. There is talk of Mr. Wilson getting 100 votes, to Mr. Gaitskell's 140 or so (leaving something over a dozen for abstentions, sudden death, spoilt ballot-papers and one or two who do not discover there is an election on until it is over). I think this is a substantial exaggeration of the strength Mr. Wilson will command. My reading of the final vote is that the abstentions, which have hitherto been placed mainly in the Gaitskell camp, re- ducing his total accordingly, may fall more numerously in Mr. Wilson's. To begin with, the hard core of absolute pacifists in the Parliamen- tary Party ought, in all conscience, to abstain. Leaving aside any opinion they may have of Mr. Wilson's principles or personality, how does a man who is against Mr. Gaitskell because Mr. Gaitskell believes in military defence based on the hydrogen-bomb vote for Mr. Wilson, who believes in the same thing? Oddly enough, Mr. Greenwood would here have scored better than Mr. Wilson, for he is a unilateralist; but I think Mr. Wilson may lose half a dozen anti-Gaitskell votes on this crucial point, if not more.

Then there are those who are opposed to Mr. Gaitskell's leadership on personality grounds; some of those will surely be forced to abstain on the grounds that all the character-defects of Mr. Gaitskell that they deplore are shared by Mr. Wilson, who adds a good few of his own. If a Labour MP objects to Mr. Gaitskell because he regards him as irresolute, say, how can he bring himself to vote for a fence-sitter of Mr. Wilson's calibre?

There are more. Mr. Michael Foot will not be back in the House in time to take part in the vote; but if he were, is it conceivable that this preux chevalier could vote for Mr. Wilson without his right hand dropping off? There are not many like Mr. Foot, but there arc one or two, among the more fanatical Left-wing opposi- tion to Mr. Gaitskell, who share something of his outlook, and would scorn to touch pitch like Mr. Wilson even to defile Mr. Gaitskell with. Would—I choose a name at random—the sea- green incorruptible Mr. Hugh Delargy, a simon- pure Bevanite from the old days, and a man who has told Mr. Gaitskell to his face that he hates him (which is more than some of these smilers with the knives have ever done), feel happy about supporting a man whom he must despise as heartily as he surely does Mr. Wilson? Again, can some of those who were profoundly, albeit naively, disturbed by Mr. Gaitskell's determina- tion to reject the conference decision, but who fought the election on a NATO defence policy, line up with Mr. Zilliacus, who said last week that 'all arguments referring to election pledges are irrelevant'?

None of these groups may be very large; but with six here, three there, and two in the other place, they may add up to a formidable paring of Mr. Wilson's vote. A crushing defeat for Mr. Wilson (something of the order of 150 to 75 or so) would not settle matters. But it would enormously hearten the loyalists—and hearten- ing, in the long and bitter struggle that lies ahead, is something they need desperately.

After the leadership, the deputy-leadership and the Parliamentary Committee. At present, leaving Mr. Lee (Mr. Wilson's running-mate) out of it, there are two candidates for Number Two—Mr. George Brown and Mr. Callaghan. Most loyalists at the moment seem inclined to support Mr. Callaghan, and rightly. Both of them are 'sound,' but Mr. Brown is rather more apt to lose his head, as he did spectacularly just before the conference, and there is a general impression that Mr. Gaitskell would prefer Jim. But one horrible consequence arises from elect-

ing him. It is that, as Deputy Leader, Mr., 111C,61 laghan would be ex officio a member 01 National Executive, which would mean that would give up his seat in the constituency secti‘l, And this would mean that the nearest Ostir; cessful candidate for that section would auto matically matically move up. And the candidate in enesli°it was Mr. Wedgwood Beim, and one more r'), would be added on the wrong side of the ragi edge division in the National Executive. But this, like the subsequent election Or t0 'Shadow Cabinet,' only helps to illustrate absurdity of having the chief official Parlianieo, w tary spokesmen of the Labour Party chosellio ballot, instead of by the party's leader, as t14 are when the party is in office. If they are be posed to be a 'Shadow Cabinet,' they rnt15,t

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appointed as the members of the real Cav,'0 0 age. As it is, they have constantly to be 10°"110 over their shoulders at their standing with lid rank-and-file, and trimming their policies40 attitudes to keep up their popularity-rating. rut the final smash-up comes, the first thing bit Gaitskell must do is to insist that he chooses to party's spokesmen in the House, and it O', be no bad thing if he also insists on chooslose the Deputy Leader. In fact, he might ch°04 exactly the same people as the ballot, hut, id vital difference would be that they would tie 'office' on an entirely new basis. 'When the final smash-up comes.' This brifal me to my last point. When it conies, it is esset,s'ir for the loyalists to retain the party machine' Tom Williamson, in his Scarborough sPe9;31 hinted that his union (the General and Municilist Workers) would not support a unilater`ko, Labour Party. Nor, if it came to a showdonsif would Mr. Carron or a dozen more. But the Tom, unlike Mr. Carron, was able to sPe3k :as way he was mandated; Mr. Carron's union ‘,"01 unilateralist, and I cannot see him disaffiltio the AEU while it is on record against the P11,1:10 policy, however much he would like to. ".0 possible for the loyalists to retain the roach:be while the Scarborough decision remains °11„ci. record; but it would he much easier if that'05 sion could be reversed, so that the dissIde of would not have their: fictional `suprenlacce conference' to support their claim that theY1;15, the Labour Party and the loyalists the re"-nd This means, as has also been hinted her on there, a new conference next spring -or as as enough of the unions (some of which, it„iae be remembered, were mandated against the r be form without seeing the platform's policY)cae.cer induced to reverse their votes. It will be a m hell able expedient at best, and, with the rnerrY.; is the dissidents are going to raise in the 11°11–d:e soon as the election is over and battle Ioirle,;(0) is possible that the loyalists (or enough 0f.r`–in. may lose their nerve before then and glee r, But it is virtually the only way in which sic), test' thing can be saved from the wreck. The 'a-es ts Daily Mail Gallup Poll (chest fugaces!)suto that the stampede from Labour—the real' ".ihe shift—may have begun. And if you think that appearance of two violent newspaper attaclorouy Mr. Macmillan in two days, by Mr. ler! $ Thorpe and Mr. Grimond respectively' s coincidence, then I advise you to think about, The Liberal wolves are waiting: and the I-3u sledge is rocking more wildly than ever.