TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE FRENCH ELECTIONS. THE French habit of demanding a second ballot when- ever a candidate fails to obtain a majority of all the votes polled, impairs the dramatic effect of a general election ; but there can be no serious doubt as to the broad result of the struggle of Sunday. France by a majority of three to two, and Paris by a majority of 5• per cent., have refused to remodel the Constitution in an anti- Parliamentary sense. There may be a restricted Revision, though we think it will be avoided, eighty Republican candidates having, it is said, agreed to that ; but govern- ment by the Chamber is not to be superseded by govern- ment through a single representative. The people have decided that they will go on with their existing institu- tions, and change the men with whom they are dissatisfied, before they change the form of government under which they live. That is a most sensible resolution, and pro- nounced, as it has been, in no uncertain voice, it should have a prodigious effect upon the internal politics of France. To begin with, it must make Republicans feel secure. The sudden fall of M. Grt:vy, the change in the vote of Paris, the rocket-like rise of General Boulanger, and perhaps some internal consciousness of ill-desert, had shaken the nerve of the Republican Party, made them bitter and querulous, and induced them to listen to every project for once again " conciliating the people." They see now that the people are firm in their favour for a Constitu- tion under which they themselves are absolute ; that they want a new outturn from the mechanism, and not a new machine ; and that if it will but work steadily, they prefer the Republic to any form of personal government. King, Emperor, and Dictator, all were before them wrapped in the word " Boulangism." That is an immense source of confidence, and should embolden moderate men to hold together, construct a capable government, and support it steadily, without too much fear of the effect on votes. If the persecutions and the extravagances and the intriguings of the last four years have not alienated the people from the Republic, moderation and ability certainly will not, and a majority once organised may go forward without fear. That will tend strongly towards stable government, all the more because the Republicans returned are generally moderates, election by districts tending to the election of the influential, and because it is understood that they have received one or two definite mandates from their electors. They are to insist on reductions in expense, and to raise prices for the benefit of producers. " Economy " and " Protection " are, in fact, the peasants' cries ; and, as we judge from the Premier's speech and some other signs, they will be obeyed. The dominant party has been thoroughly frightened, it has been in close contact with the electors, it is still threatened by a third of the Chamber, and it will probably close up its ranks behind the remodelled Administration which President Carnot is to form. That Administration will have, of course, to contend with the tendency of French parties to form groups, with the dis- integrating effect of personal ambitions, and with the per- manent difficulty presented by the caprices of Paris ; but it will have some unusual advantages. It has got in M.
Constans, whose place in the country is settled by the elections, a strong man who is not unpopular • it will be released in great measure from its fear of the Reds, whose number is reduced to sixty ; and it will commence work in the beginning of a cycle of prosperous activity. France, like England, is saving money fast, investors are eager for new opportunities, and the defeat of Boulangism relieves speculators, inventors, industrials, and capitalists from an overshadowing fear of disturbance. France should be prosperous for a time, and her Government liberated from that dangerous opposition which is born of distress, and which acts on but does not formulate its discontent. It is useless to prophesy about a country where Boulangism suddenly seemed to have become a creed ; but the political steadiness of her peasantry under great provocation, and at the very moment when the cycle of revolution had come round, gives her Government a sheet-anchor which should produce at least comparative stability, if only because, if faction should prove incorrigible, it will give Presi- dent and Senate the courage to dissolve, and ask the constituencies to send them up new men. Want of stability is the true drawback to Parliamentary government in France, and an election like this, which should at least give the Ministry consistency, for they as well as the Republic have received a vote of confidence, will of itself help to relieve it of that source of recurrent weakness. It is not wise to be too sanguine, but the vote of the peasantry is the most reassuring incident in all the recent history of France.
To Europe at large, the result of the Election can only be a great relief. The Republic has a strong Army, and would, if provoked, accept war,—possibly, if over-tempted by circumstances or a great alliance, would declare war ; but it may be taken as certain that the leading Repub- licans are not seeking war. While they bear rule, they do not want grand risks, which for them, as individuals, would have in any case inadequate compensation. If defeated, they would be politically dead, even if half of them were not sent to Cayenne ; and if victorious, they would be superseded by the Generals and the " organisers of victory," who would have recovered the lost provinces. They prefer to wait, and as Germany also prefers to wait, and the allies of Germany must wait if Germany does, Russia remains the only Power likely to disturb the European world. The Russian Czar, however, is most un- willing to accept the responsibility and the labour and the risk of Western war, and the Russian people desire an alliance before they make war, as a guarantee of limited liability. It is most difficult for a Court like that of St. Petersburg to form an alliance with a Republic, even if it threatens to last, and so help it to show that a kingless State may win victories in the field. It is easier to turn eastward, where, if effort fails, one can recede and not be pursued ; and though that course may mean mischief to Great Britain, the Continent, if it expects that mischief, will be only the more relieved. England is not loved abroad, nor liked, except by Italy. General Boulanger, as successful adventurer, must have fought in the end; but the Republic can go on suffering the armed peace which she has endured for fifteen years. It is reported, and is probable, that this consideration weighed among others with the peasantry ; and if it be so, the star of the General will probably be found to have set for ever. He has had his chance, and has lost it. So long as no General Election had taken place, there was always the chance that he might gain the plebiscite, and so recover all ; but his name has now been formally voted on and rejected by two-thirds of the constituencies. That is a sentence as well as a vote. It is most improbable that the coalition which used him as a banner will adhere to that ensign now it is in the dust ; and if it does, it can, in the face of the majority, accomplish very little. A third of the House cannot defeat two-thirds, and failing the General, the Opposition has no man to put forward with the smallest hold upon the country. It is not likely that the election for Montmartre will be validated by a hostile majority, even if the decision of the Revising Committee annulling the vote turns out to be illegal, and without his inviolability as Deputy, General Boulanger would only return to France to be tried by a High Court which has already declared him guilty of treasonable practices. His only chance now is a war; and if the peasantry, in rejecting his name, meant to decline war, that chance shrinks into one possessed by almost any military rival. Allowing for the unforeseen, which so often occurs in France, we should say that Boulangism was " played out," and that the next danger to the Republic would arise from some other source, and introduce to Europe some other name. The whole incident in which. the General has been pivot, has been one of the strangest in modern history, and opens up a vista of end- less possibilities of a revival of CEesarism ; but it ended, we fancy, with the returns of Sunday. That is not to be lamented by any, whether Frenchmen or outsiders, except that numerous class who ask of politics first of all that they be not dull. A good deal of the scenic in contemporary history departs into oblivion with General Boulanger.
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