POLITICS

How to bet at Brecon and Radnor

BRUCE ANDERSON

For the past few days, parliamentary candidates, MPs and journalists have been struggling to remember the difference be- tween Upper Chapel and Lower Chapel, Builth and Bwlch, or wondering how on earth to attempt to pronounce Llande- faelogfach or Ystradgynlais. Brecon and Radnor is the third largest constituency in England and Wales, covering 750,000 acres, many of them rather beautiful, especially if one didn't have to try to track down the 48,000 thinly scattered electors. It includes a large part of the Brecon National Park, much of the Rivers Usk and Wye, the Black Mountains, and the Rad- nor Forest. East to west, it stretches from Hay-on-Wye, which has many more book- shops per inhabitant than any other town in the kingdom, to the hills of Mynydd Eppynt, where the population density is less than that of the Sahara desert.

So it would be absurd, surely, to draw general conclusions from the outcome of a by-election in such an untypical seat? But it can't be that untypical, to judge by the present state of the national opinion polls, for of all the by-elections since the forma- tion of the Alliance this campaign is the nearest we have had to a genuine three- horse race.

There are no outstanding personalities among the candidates. Admittedly Mr Willey (Labour) displays much more liveli- ness than we have any right to expect from the son of one of Richard Crossman's 'Fearful Freds' but Mr Butler, the Con- servative, is permanently on the defensive: he has the demeanour of a man who expects to lose. The Liberal, Mr Livsey, looks like Clive Ponting, with the same thin-lipped stiffness. But he has an advan- tage: at his elbow, and pumping everyone else's, is the splendid figure of Geraint Howells, MP for Cardigan, and an arche- typal Welsh mixture of charm and cunning.

But the Liberals have other weapons besides charm. They put out a leaflet asserting that theirs is the only candidate with a stable family background, thus drawing to voters' notice the fact that Mr Willey is not actually married to the mother of his children, the woman he has been living with for many years, and that Mr Butler is not married either.

Of course, the Liberals always fight elettions much more dirtily than the other parties (though they usually rely on word of mouth rather than on leaflets). This does not mean, however, that the other parties can really claim moral superiority

— they couldn't get away with similar tactics. The electorate deeply disapproves of mudslinging, and blames the Tories and Labour for it — but not the Liberals. This is unfair. Labour and the Tories, knowing the electorate's tastes, throw hardly any mud at all. The Liberals meanwhile, secure behind their Simon Pure reputation, throw all the mud they like.

The prospect of defeat at Brecon is especially painful for Welsh Conservatives in that it would be the first major reverse they have suffered since 1966. Over the past 15 years, the Tory Party has been more successful in Wales than at any time since the 1867 Reform Bill. In 1966, it held only three seats out of 36, with Labour having 32. At the last election, out of 38 seats, the Tories had 14, with Labour — almost wiped out north of the Valleys — down to 20, several of which are marginals.

Secularisation, which has damaged' the Tories' prospects in other parts of the country (in particular by the loss' of Orange seats in Liverpool and Glasgow), seems to have worked to their advantage in Wales. As Chapel versus Church antagonism de- clines with the general spread of indiffer- ence, fewer and fewer Welsh voters re- member or care that the Tories were opposed to Welsh disestablishment. Wales is increasingly voting like anywhere else — and anywhere else Brecon and Radnor would be an even safer Tory seat than it was at the last election, when the Tories polled more votes than all other parties put together.

So why are the Tories in real danger of coming third next Thursday? Local grie- vances have added to their difficulties. There have been disputes over an intended hospital closure, possible cancellation of a new school, and a proposal to shut down Crickhowell army camp. In fact, the hos- pital has been saved and the school project is to go ahead (useful thing, by-elections), and as Michael Heseltine is due to speak for Mr Butler, the army camp's prospects don't look too bad either. Even the local farmers are strongly in favour of keeping it open, despite the fact that it houses the sort of Welsh regiments that are customari- ly piped out to the tune of 'Sheep may safely graze'.

The nature of these local complaints helps one to understand why the Tories' prospects are so bleak. When the voters of

Brecon are asked what they think of the Government's record on any social issue — housing, education, welfare services, trans- port — the first word that springs to their lips is 'cuts'. And, of course, unemploy- ment overshadows the economic agenda. Increasingly, the electorate is aware of only the negative aspects of the Govern- ment's policies. So even Tory loyalists tend to have the air of a besieged garrison

straining through their binoculars for signs of the relief column. There is no élan, nor even quiet self-confidence. They no longer believe that this Government has the answer to the nation's problems.

Certainly it has been true that down the years not many votes have been lost by overrating the masochism of the British people. That she seemed to promise purg- ing and bitter medicine — the smack of a

firm governess, as the New Statesman once put it — was undoubtedly part of Mrs Thatcher's appeal in 1979. But there is a

crucial difference between that and the tone many voters think Mrs Thatcher has recently adopted. The message she seems to be conveying now is that she could pull the country round, if only the British people were up to it.

All this has an alarming amount in common with the air of priggish disdain with which the Wykehamist wing of the Labour Party used regularly to alienate voters. Just as the electors of the 1950s were not prepared to be told by the Gaitskells and Jays that the gentlemen in Whitehall really did know best, when apart from anything else the evidence was so much to the contrary, so this Government has the double disadvantage of seeming both disapproving and incompetent. After a time, people want to think well of themselves, and when the politicians who

seem to be coming between the public and its self-esteem can't get the simplest thing right — well, they shouldn't expect to win by-elections.

In 1929 at Brecon, the three parties finished within 350 votes of each other, Labour winning: a similarly tight finish is by no means impossible this time. How- ever, I will plump for an Alliance win by 2,000, with Labour second, 1,000 votes ahead of the Conservatives. As it happens, this is in line with the odds quoted by Messrs Evans and James, the Brecon bookmakers. But the only thing that I would bet on in this election is that whatever the outcome, Messrs Evans and James will make a profit.