29 MARCH 1873, Page 5

THE PROSPECTS OF THE GOVERNMENT.

whether deprecating it or not, certainly predicted,—an early dissolution. "Men of political intelligence, unaffected by personal interest, incline to the opinion that it is not for the benefit of the nation that a condemned Parliament should sit on, without any heart to legislate, or to do more than watch the arrival of the day of its extinction." We quite agree with the Times; though we dislike the evidently hostile politi- cal animus of the remark which Mr. Lowe certainly was the last member of the Cabinet to deserve.

But the views of the Times are only interesting as symptoms of the growing disaffection. There are substantial dangers in view. In the first place, there is the great difficulty of how to deal with Mr. Fawcett's Trinity College Bill, which stands second on the orders of the day for a second reading next Wednesday. That Mr. Gladstone cannot accept it is perfectly obvious. He has avowed his conviction that the reconstituted University of Dublin ought to be one in which Ireland can place confi- dence, and not simply any particular section of the Irish popu- lation. After such an avowal it would be in the highest degree undignified and unworthy to accept any part of Mr. Fawcett's Bill except, as before, the test abolition clauses. For Mr. Gladstone's Government deliberately to entrust the University to a Council consisting of four senior Fellows of Trinity College, four junior Fellows, four Professors, and four Graduates, and to leave to that Council the responsibility of process of meeting your constituents, especially with the uncer- tainty of the Ballot's political effect before you, is always some- thing. It is no wonder, then, that Liberal members are or try to be sanguine as to the delay. But whether the delay is assured, is to our minds extremely doubtful, and we strongly hold to our original conviction that it was a false timidity on the part of the Government to shrink from the manly course of dissolving at once a Parliament which had turned it out of office,—a timidity which tends to relax the fibres of Government, and especially to diminish the characteristic reputation of Mr. Gladstone's eager and tenacious Administration. But apart now from the question of what ought to have been done, it seems to us perfectly clear that the doubts which still hang over Parliament are much graver than the Liberals like to face. In the first place, it seems pretty evident that the Times has deserted the Government. Not only did it extend its counsel and its patronage to Mr. Disraeli during the recent crisis in a very marked manner, but it is now pretty clear that it is working in the Conserva- tive interest to discredit the Government, and in that interest to promote a dissolution On Thursday, for in- stance, it did its best to depreciate the value of the demons- tration at the Mansion House, and was very severe on Mr. conformists. So that it seems exceedingly likely he may eon- Lowe for deprecating—what, as far as we could see, Mr. Lowe trive to unite against him the Conservative party and the Nonconformists. And the Nonconformists wish for nothing better than an opportunity of turning out the Government on its English Education policy. ' of the Government of accepting so false a position. But then the question will arise, how should the Liberal Members deal with the Bill ? No doubt many of them will feel bound ix honour to the Government, which they have over-persuaded te stay in office after power has slipped from their grasp, not te vote with Mr. Fawcett. But many will be likely enough k stay away,—a via media that is very grateful to hesitating and feeble minds,—and not a few, perhaps, to follow Mr. Fawcett and Mr. Disraeli into the Conservative lobby. They will reason with themselves that a dissolution before long is inevitable, and that they cannot better make their peace with the bigots among their constituents for the vote they gave on the Government's Irish University Bill, than by voting for Mr. Fawcett's Bill now. It is easy to defend this in Parliament by declaring that at all events something must be done, and that what Mr. Fawcett proposes is better than nothing, and to tell constituents that after the Irish Catholics had rejected the Government compromise, it seemed legitimate and right to leave the power in the hands of Protestants. There can be little or no doubt that the second reading of Mr_ Fawcett's University of Dublin Bill will, in the present dis- organised state of the Liberal party, be a grave crux for Parliamentary tacticians.

Nor is this the only danger. If the loyalty of the Liberals be, as we hope, sufficient to surmount this danger, there is the further very difficult question of Mr. Forster's Education Act Amendment Bill. What proposal Mr.

it might be, as far as regards the twenty-fifth clause, to tiara's all denominational school fees payable for the children ff pauper parents on a voluntary education rate, like the volun- tary Church-rate by which the fabric of our churches hac been maintained since the triumph of the Dissenters ;and as far as regards the question of compulsion, to extend compul- sion, if not through School Boards, through some other trust- worthy agency, to the country districts. But we cannot dis- guise from ourselves that whatever Mr. Forster proposes will receive a very unfavourable consideration from the NOLICCM- formists, who have been so childish as to persuade themselves that they do well to be angry with everything that Mr. Forster does and says. And the worst feature of the mattex is that he .is exceedingly likely to offend bah the Noncon- formists and the Tories by either the one or the other of the sections of his measure. If Mr. Forster repeals the twenty- fifth Clause in any form, he will please the Nonconformists, but offend the Conservatives. If he refuses to extend Schod Boards to the country districts,—a very difficult matter when there is already sufficient school accommodation for children, and nothing for the School Board to do except to apply cora- pulsion,—he will please the Conservatives, but offend the Non-

process of meeting your constituents, especially with the uncer- tainty of the Ballot's political effect before you, is always some- thing. It is no wonder, then, that Liberal members are or try to be sanguine as to the delay. But whether the delay is assured, is to our minds extremely doubtful, and we strongly hold to our original conviction that it was a false timidity on the part of the Government to shrink from the manly course of dissolving at once a Parliament which had turned it out of office,—a timidity which tends to relax the fibres of Government, and especially to diminish the characteristic reputation of Mr. Gladstone's eager and tenacious Administration. But apart now from the question of what ought to have been done, it seems to us perfectly clear that the doubts which still hang over Parliament are much graver than the Liberals like to face. In the first place, it seems pretty evident that the Times has deserted the Government. Not only did it extend its counsel and its patronage to Mr. Disraeli during the recent crisis in a very marked manner, but it is now pretty clear that it is working in the Conserva- tive interest to discredit the Government, and in that interest to promote a dissolution On Thursday, for in- stance, it did its best to depreciate the value of the demons- tration at the Mansion House, and was very severe on Mr. conformists. So that it seems exceedingly likely he may eon- Lowe for deprecating—what, as far as we could see, Mr. Lowe trive to unite against him the Conservative party and the Nonconformists. And the Nonconformists wish for nothing better than an opportunity of turning out the Government on its English Education policy.

These are the principal points of danger. But if we aim to trust semi-official assertions, we shall have an unpopular Budget, with three-fourths of the surplus taken up in the payment of the Alabama indemnity, to weight an already disorganised Government, and perhaps a squabble with the Committee on Public Accounts as to the informality of Mr. Scudamore's use of the Savings' Bank balances for the con- struction of Telegraphs. But the true source of the danger is the tamely-accepted defeat. To a Government that hesitates to dissolve a Parliament in which it has been beaten, even the grasshopper is a burden, and trifles swell suddenly into a factitious importance not properly belonging to them. For our own parts, we can only hope that the break-up when it comes, be it this Session or next, will come on a point on which the Government need not fear to appeal!. boldly to the country. In spite of the anger of the Nonconformists against the Vice-President of the Council;

and the exaggerated political dread which is felt of Noncon- formist hostility, we are by no means sure that the rupture

THE general impression, or rather, perhaps, we ought to say, the general hope, of the Liberal party, seems to be that the House and the Government will now survive this Session, and that no dissolution will take place till the spring or autumn of next year. There is every reason why Liberal members should indulge this hope. The less the dissolution is associated with the Irish University question, the less fear there will be that the Liberals will lose votes by the imputa- tion of sympathy with Popery. Then, again, life is sweet, and the Forster may have to offer to the Nonconformists, we, of course, expenses of election are bitter. A year's delay in the painful can form no sort of conjecture. We should be glad to thial