PORTFOLIO JOHN BULL
How does Mr Jenkins's autumn budget affect my two portfolios?
Empire Stores : there are two dangers for the mail-order houses—the cut-back in con- sumer spending which the Government is trying once again to engineer might significantly reduce demand; second, some imported items will require much-more finance than hitherto. Against these possibilities has to be set the fact that the mail-order houses provide their cus- tomers with credit (twenty weeks or so), which is a scarce commodity. Moreover, the sector has shown repeatedly since the war that it can prosper when retail trade generally is in the doldrums. I rely on this precedent and keep my shares.
PhOenix Assurance : not affected by the measures or the crisis. But it is worth pointing out that British insurance companies are 'having their worst year for a long time, with heavy losses both in the United States and in thii country. I keep Phoenix because it is a takeover possibility.
War Loan: chief Casualty of the events of ,the past three weeks. 'I cannot see there being • mach of 'a revival in the gilt-edged market, :though the latest deflationary package helps. Bear • factors are the fast rise in the colt of living and currency uncertainties abroad. I intend, therefore, to sell my holding—but not immediately, for there should be a better 'opportunity in the coming weeks.
• Witan : not affected.
E. Scragg : this exporter of textile machinery
Valuations at 27 November 1968 First portfolio 100 Empire Stores at 75s 3d .. £376 125 Phoenix Assurance at 37s .. • • i...131 £2,000 War Loan at 44f • . £892 330 Witan at 24s .. £396 250 E. Scragg at 39s 3d £491 100 National and Grindlays Bank at 73s £365 500 Clarkson (Engineers) at 17s 3d .. £431 60 Rio Tinto Zinc at 137s 6d £413 1,000 Associated British Foods at 12s Old £603 1,000 Jamaica Public Service at 5s 9d .. £288 250 Associated British Picture at 45s 3d £564 100 Lyons 'A' at 87s 6d £438 Cash with local authority at 7 per cent £1,236 £6,724 Deduct: expenses £184 Total £6,540 Second portfolio 600 Pillar Holdings at 14s 101d 15 Kaiser Steel at £36 8s .. 250 Lonrho at 33s 9d 100 British Petroleum at 126s 3d 300 Vosper at 23s 6d ..
Cash in hand ..
£5,354 Deduct: expenses £141 Total £5,213 .. £443 .. £546 .. £422 .. £631 .. £352 .. £2,960
continues to go from strength to strength— marginally helped by measures.
Barclays Bank : there is no growth in the clearing banks at the moment. 1 have sold this holding.
National and Grindlays Bank : not affected, but the shares have been strong recently on takeover hopes. I hale always believed that this bank will be bought up, probably by Lloyds Bank. I retain my holding and await de- velopments.
Clarkson (Engineers): a beneficiary, as im- port-deposit scheme should reduce the impact of foreign-made machine tools on home market.
Rio Tinto Zinc : not affected, but has gained from the revival of interest in Australian mining issues.
Associated British Foods : very slightly hin- dered by measures to check consumer spending. However, I keep the shares.
Lyons : like AB Foods, slightly affected, but this group's vast property potential is what keeps the share price up. I await develop- ments.
Associated British Picture : not affected.
Jamaica Public Services : not affected.
Pillar Holdings f shortage of credit will not be pleasant for some of Pillar's customers in the building industry. But I keep the shares.
Negretti and Zambra : only a bid can rescue these shares. I have decided not to wait, and to sell my holdings at a loss.
Gallaher : badly hurt by higher tax on cigarettes. I sell this holding—overall profit on original purchase (over half sold to American Tobacco).
Kaiser Steel and Lonrho: not affected.
British Petroleum : marginally hurt by higher tax on petrol. The possibility of an Alaskan oil discovery fuels these shares. I shall hold on to them.
Vosper : not affected.