A SPECTATOR'S NOTEBOOK
GALLUP polls, straw votes, intensive enquiries and all the rest of it must be accepted with rigorous reservations. But when all that is admitted, I am bound to recognise that the cumulative results of all the recent enquiries I have heard of are too impressive to be dismissed out of hand. I have heard of at least half a dozen such tests in the past week. They differ in detail, but every one of them points to a Conservative victory at the General Election. In one case the prediction is of a Conserva- tive majority of a million in the popular vote ; that, it is true, does not make a majority in seats certain, but it makes it so probable as to be very nearly that. In other cases a 50 per cent. vote for Conservatives is indicated, which, since there is never a hundred per cent. poll, means a clear Conservative majority over all other parties. A very detailed chart and table in Tuesday's News Chronicle, tracing the fluctuations of public opinion from January, 1946, to November, 1949, suggests that the electors canvassed intend to vote 38 per cent. Labour, 48 per cent. Conservative, 13 per cent. Liberal and 1 per cent. for other candi- dates. These figures must not be translated into terms of seats— no one seriously expects to see 70-odd Liberals in the new House— hut they obviously have their interest as pointers. If I am asked whether all this convinces me that the Conservatives will win the Election, the answer is No. But they look more like winning it than ever before. And I can't see what can happen to improve Labour's chances k * *
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