POLITICS
Despite Mandy, the Tories still have a lot of work to do
BRUCE ANDERSON
For 18 months, Tony Blair had charmed the voters while his press spokesmen intim- idated the media. Though there is little rea- son to suppose that Mr Blair has lost his power to charm, his spin doctors are going to find that coercion no longer works. In future, the media will treat Labour scandals — or peccadilloes — much as they treated Tory ones, and there are targets in view.
The most obvious is Charlie Whelan, Mr Brown's press spokesman. How can a press spokesman remain in his job when the Deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott, regards him as a cancer at the heart of the government? Because Gordon Brown is protecting this cancerous growth, that is why; as ever, Mr Brown is putting his own interests and loyalties first. Mr Blair should have insisted that Mr Whelan went at the same time as Messrs Mandelson and Robinson, but the opportunity was missed. The mess remains, and will not go away.
Nor will the former Mrs Robin Cook. Her book is to be published in a few weeks and promises to be a comprehensive act of vengeance. It cannot destroy Mr Cook's credibility as Foreign Secretary; he has already done that for himself. But it will do dreadful damage to his personal reputation, to the extent of finishing him as a politician. Mr Blair will have to decide whether to help Mr Cook cling to office, or to stand on his fingers. Judging by the Prime Minister's behaviour over Mr Mandelson, he will allow the press to make up his mind for him. They will be happy to rise to the occasion.
In the interim, they may have resurrected an old scandal. When Robert Maxwell's empire of crookery collapsed, it was widely assumed that a number of politicians and City figures would be buried in the rubble. For some months afterwards, certain indi- viduals crept around in a state of height- ened anxiety; then the pressure seemed to be off. Now, however, and largely as a result of Geoffrey Robinson, there is renewed interest in Maxwelliana; the press has realised that there is still good eating to be had from that old joint.
The papers also know that two govern- ment ministers worked for Maxwell. There is no suggestion that Helen Liddell or Bernard Donoughue were guilty of wrong- doing, but questions are bound to be asked as to what they knew and what, perhaps, they should have known. The writer Tom Bower has written biographies of Maxwell, Tiny Rowland and Mohamed Fayed, so he understands certain aspects of City practices. Before the last election, he told Tony Blair and Peter Mandelson that they would be unwise to give Lord Donoughue a ministerial post. There will be more Maxwell-related developments before the Millennium is out.
And before the Millennium Dome is opened — the real charge against Peter Mandelson. A transaction involving £373,000 of private money may have forced his resignation; his execration should result from a transaction approximately 2,000 times larger, using public money. When one considers how £750 million could have been spent; the chance to erect a building which would not be disgraced by compari- son with the architecture of the 11th centu- ry, which could endure for the next millen- nium, to persuade our descendants — if any survive — that we were not a wholly frivolous generation: and what do we have? A record-breaking monument. In the past, there have been expensive monuments and there have been worthless monuments. But the Dome is much the most expensive worthless monument of all time.
This will dawn on the public at an awk- ward moment for the government: when it is starting to be judged by conventional crite- ria. The voters are beginning to realise that despite Mr Blair's aura of sanctity, he cannot work miracles. There are still grumbles about the health service and about standards in schools. In both areas, Labour has been long on soundbites but short on action and some of the action which has been taken is counter-productive. The NHS internal market had sometimes been crudely imple- mented, but it was beginning to ensure that scarce resources were sensibly deployed. Frank Dobson has now made that task hard- er; he will come to regret it as the com- plaints roll in.
Above all, this is a year when the average voter is unlikely to feel much richer. There are enough economic worries around to alter the public mood, and that is the worst possible moment to launch a luvvaganza of pretentiousness and affectation. The Dome is political trouble.
So it is easy to understand why so many Tory politicians have been chuckling over the phone to one another during the holi- day period. In political terms, it has been the best Tory Christmas since at least 1991. But the Tory party should beware both of premature rejoicing and of giving insuffi- cient thought to its strategic objectives.
Most Tories were delighted by the gov- ernment's recent difficulties because they always believed that Mr Blair won his elec- tion on a false prospectus. So the Tories are inclined to gloat, and who can blame them? But gloating is not enough. It underesti- mates Mr Blair's capacity to distance him- self from his government's misfortunes. This has never been a conventional British government, with a prime minister at the head of his party. It was always much more of a Blairocracy, with a prime minister soar- ing well above his party and trying to turn himself into a president. So ministers may sleaze and go, but as long as the govern- ment's poll position depends on Tony Blair, the Tories may not reap many dividends.
They must also understand that the low road is not enough. It is, of course, essential to discredit the government, but there must also be a high road strategy, based on Mr Hague. Because they are so aware of his qualities — sometimes, indeed, too much in awe of them — those around William Hague do not seem to realise that his mes- sage is not getting across. The average voter still has very little idea as to who he is and what he believes. Admittedly, there was not a lot that could have been done to rectify this over the past 18 months, when the vot- ers were simply not interested in anything that the Tories had to say, but this could now change.
It cannot, however, be changed merely by saying, `Ya, boo — sleaze to you.' From quite early on in her days as party leader, Margaret Thatcher would begin speeches by saying, in effect, 'This is my philosophy.' Mr Hague should now do the same.
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