Where the Eurovote counts
Sam White
Paris Only in France does the political landscape promise to be different after the European election than it was before. That is because instead of being the harmless public relations exercise it seemed doomed to be, the election in France has taken on the character of the opening phase of the presidential election in 1981. A year ago after his triumph in the general elections it looked as though Giscard had a clear three-year run ahead of him. Then suddenly the European election began to loom as an obstacle to be cleared if he wanted a second presidential term. That this became so was largely due to the Gaullist leader and Giscard's possible rival for the presidency, Jacques Chirac, who was determined to make the European elections a test of the Government's and the President's standing in the country.
To all Giscard's earlier protestations that the European elections had nothing to do with domestic issues, Chirac replied by raising more and more stridently precisely such issues. Beginning with an onslaught on the whole concept of direct elections to Strasbourg as marking the first step to a supranational Europe, Chirac has gone on to challenge the whole range of government policies. This has finally led him to declare that the European elections are essentially a referendum on the President and his handling of the country's affairs and if his candidates fail to obtain a satisfactory percentage of the vote, then Giscard's own 'legitimacy' will be in question.
It was a bad slip of the tongue, just as his earlier reference to Giscard's supporters as representing le parti de l'etranger had been a bad slip. He had to be rescued from this latest one by one of the few old Gaullists who support him, Michel Debre, who pointed out that he should have used the word 'authority' instead of 'legitimacy' as the presidential legitimacy derives from the president's own election by direct vote.
A similar situation has developed on the opposition side where the Communists are challenging the Socialist leader Mitterrand, in just the same way as Chirac is challenging Giscard. Indeed, the Gaullist and Communist campaigns are following parallel lines. Both concentrate their fire on Prime Minister Barre's economic policies, both dwell on unemployment and inflation, both are opposed to the extension of the Common Market to Greece, Spain and Portugal, both accuse Giscard and his supporters of being European supra-nationalists at heart, and both speak darkly of multi-nationals and of the threat of an American-sponsored German domination of the Common Market. Both too consider that Giscard hopes as a result of these elections to be able to restructure his majority by driving the Gaullists out of the governing coalition and bringing the Socialists in. Finally, for both parties the rivalry is internal rather than external. The Communists must try still further to narrow the percentage gap with the Socialists in the vote, and the Gaullists must strive for at least 20 per cent of the poll, otherwise disaster beckons.
For the Communist leader Georges Marchais the major objective is to reduce Francois Mitterrand's credibility as the Left's candidate for the presidency in 1981, for Chirac to reduce that of Giscard. Giscard's own list of candidates is of course led by the popular and highly respected Minister of Health, Madam Simone Veil. Given the split within the majority, she is the ideal candidate as she is also the ideal candidate for winning votes from the Socialists. She has indeed in the past had close links with the Gaullists and is a close personal friend of Chirac and she has also in the past had links with the Socialists. She has no historY of being a champion of a supra-national Europe, as has the number two on her list, Jean Lecanuet. Furthermore, she is an ex-concentration camp victim and a Jewess, which makes it difficult to accuse her of being soft on the Germans.
She is playing it in a low key, but unfortunately for her, according to some observers, her campaign is being swamped by the Prime Minister himself, Barre. He is present at most of her major meetings and it is he who inevitably makes the keynote speech. The result is that what was at first a seemingly apolitical campaign is becoming a stridently political one. She herself is said to be unhappy because of Barre's seeming attempts to steal the limelight from her. An element of turbulence has been introduced into her campaign by the sudden reemergence of the turbulent and unpredictable Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber. After saying repeatedly that in no circumstances would he oppose the Giscard list, he has now come out with his own, headed bY himself with his old collaboratrice Francolse Giroud as his number two. Actually both be and Madame Giroud hoped to be on the Giscard list, but Madame Veil refused t° have either. Now to the mild dismay of all concerned, including his own wing of the Radical Party which is now considering removing 11011 from its presidency, his intervention risks robbing the Giscardians of one or two per' centage points in the final vote and achiev." ing little else. Clearly Servan-Schreiber jS playing a desperate hand and one which threatens to seal his doom. He has now in.a fairly brief period lost the ownership of his weekly L'Express, his parliamentary seat' Giscard's goodwill, and now looks like losing the presidency of the Radical Party as well.
After enjoying a long period of unbroken success in predicting the outcome of elections, the French public opinion polls are, now undergoing something like a crisis 01 confidence. Their methods are being que5. tioned and with them the accuracy of the spate of predictions they are making on the outcome of the Euro-elections. RoughlY these add up to the following: 32 per cent for the Giscardians, 20 plus per cent to the Communists, 27 per cent for the Socialists and only 14 per cent for Chirac. On the basis of these figures, the Communists are doing better than they were expected to d° only a month ago, the Socialists' advance in the country has receded and the margIn between them and the Communists is nal; rowing, the Giscardians will have replace." the Gaullists as the biggest single party 1° France, and Chirac is headed for disaster. Maybe.
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