Coal New Year
On May Day the new coal year began, and on Monday May 5th the five-day week will be introduced in the industry. This is clearly a time for taking stock of the situation. It would be superfluous to say that the omens are bad, but the fact is that they are a good deal worse than they have been made to appear in the light of the moderately good news of the past few weeks. If the existing and admittedly inadequate objective of 200,000,000 tons in 1947 is to be reached, production in the rest of the year will have to be at a steady weekly rate of at least 3,870,000 tons. It has not yet reached that level, except in isolated weeks, and to hold it there, or take it higher, once the five-day week starts, would be nothing less than a minor miracle. Nevertheless, the flow of new men into the industry is such that that particular miracle might happen. But the achievement of 220,000,000 tons, the new target at which Mr. Shinwell has very cautiously hinted, would be a major miracle—the sort of miracle which does not happen. If the Minister of Fuel really thinks that the sights can be raised above 200,000,000 tons then let him raise them deliberately and explicitly. But since coal output is the one firm point in the whole structure of planning it would on the whole be better to stick to 200,000,000 tons and hope to beat it than go up as far as 220,000,000 knowing all the time that that level will not be reached. To assume that the output per manshift will go up by over 20 per cent. before the end of 1947 (which is what the target of 220,000,000 implies) is to assume that pigs might fly. Nevertheless there is nothing to be gained by undue caution. This year's outlook differs from last year's in that the mining labour force is increasing rapidly: Mr. Shinwell has said that from October onwards 4,000,000 tons a week should be assured. He has also said as recently as last week that stocks must be built up to 15,000,000 tons by November 1st. In the meantime every possible ounce of coal should go to industry. The ban on space heating and the 25 per cent. voluntary cut in domestic consumption of gas and electricity should be rigidly observed. But above all the effect of the five-day week should be watched with care.
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