30 APRIL 1948, Page 10

ITALIAN INQUEST

By C. M. FRANZERO Rome.

TALY is so incredibly calm after the pandemonium of the last few weeks that everyone seems to be feeling that mixture of joy and surprise of men who return to their homes after an earthquake and discover that the commotion of the forces of Nature which had filled them with such a great fear was not so terrible after all. No one who did not see Italy—and Rome in particular—in the last days before the elections can visualise the contrast. The flight of tourists from Rome was a veritable exodus. Those who had come from across the ocean provisionally leapt over the border into Switzer- land ; some deemed it wiser to retire as far as Portugal and feel the reassuring safety of the Atlantic breeze. A party of tourists who were seen at rapid intervals before the Pantheon, the Colosseum and St. Peter's, upon being congratulated for their sang froid in remaining, coolly replied: "On the contrary, we are doing it all in a day so as to catch tomorrow's plane for Lisbon." Things took place which read like gags in a movie. Several foreign film-producers not only cancelled all work at the studios but instructed their writers to alter the scenarios in hand and supply two different endings to suit whichever side might win at the polls. A committee which was busy assigning an important literary prize found it impossible to decide before it was sure whether a new genius had better belong to the Arcadia of the Western or the Soviet world. Business was at a standstill ; commercial travellers stood, metaphorically speaking, despairingly contemplating the waters of the so-called "blonde Tiber."

Yet the general excitement was so great that on the day before the elections, when all meetings and speeches were over, Rome— in a truly April weather of guick showers and pauses of delightful sunshine—was like a city with a hangover. Only the previous night Blacks and Reds, returning from their final grand parades, had clashed in the old Corso and buried each other under a barrage of leaflets and shouts. The Lord kept the clouds in check ; all over Italy the people rose early and went to vote in order and with single-heartedness. The first bulletin from the Prime Minister's headquarters—where the principal Ministers hod entrenched them- selves amidst a tangle of telephones and teleprinters—the first bulletin of Home Secretary Scelba (the Montgomery of the elections general staff) contained three words only : "A quiet night." Now that the battle is over, people in the know say that on the evening of April 19th the most surprised men of all were De Gasperi and Togliatti. Victory and defeat can both be overxvhciming.

But, apart from the defeat of Communism, what did really take

place in the hearts and minds of the Italian people ? Let the figure, speak. The Christian Democrats obtained 12,751,841 votes out of a total of 25,544,619; that is to say 48.7 per cent. The Communist Front got 8,025,99ot; The difference is certainly great ; but it becomes enormous when to the votes of the Christian Democrats we add all those of the other parties representing the anti-Communist block. The Communist hold upon the country then shrinks to a mere 30 per cent, against an anti-Communist 70 per cent. No doubt is possible, no equivocation. In the very cities of the North and Midlands which were reputed to be the Left bulwark, the 1946 position was decisively changed. Milan, which in 1946 gave to the Christian Democrats only 188,684 votes, gave them now 346,000, while the Left dropped from 380,000 to 272,000 ; in Turin the Christian Democrats increased from 112,000 to 203,553, and in Genoa from 102,000 to 183,616, while the Left dropped from 241,000 to 183,000. The point to note is that in 1946 the Communists got 4,356,686 and the Socialists 4,758,129—a total of 9,114,815. The Christian Democrats, in 1946, obtained 8,o8o,000. It is clear that, while the Christian Democrats increased their poll by the immense figure of four and three-quarter million votes, they did not steal them from the Communists who, with the Nenni Socialists subscrib- ing to the Corninform, merely lost one million. And who got that million of Communist votes ? Not the Christian Democrats, but the United or Democratic Socialists of Saragat and Lombardo, who received 1,860,528 votes. The Communist forces have remained what they were, minus the Democratic or "Western" Socialists. The Christian Democrats obtained their huge majority at the expense of all the other small parties. That is to say, the Italian people, just for once, sank 'their differences and unanimously voted for the Christian Democrats as a protection against the Communist hordes.

The Italian elections, therefore, clearly show three things: (z) the Italian people were determined not to be submerged (or enslaved) by Communism ; (2) the rush to the voting booths was as high as in June, 1946, when the country was prompted by such an exciting issue as Republic v. IMoriarchy ; (3) the voting v.as so orderly, free and spontaneous that all attempts by the Communist leader Togliatti to rouse the bogy of irregularities found no response. In fact, Togliatti's statements have been dismissed as the Byzantine argu- ments of a defeated man who feels that he must have one last word. What will happen now? Nothing whatever. That is, things will go on along the same lines as before, while all who gave their votes to the Christian Democrats hope that something will somehow turn up for the best. It would be an error and an absurdity to suppose that the immense consensus expressed for the Christian Democrats represents an adherence to or a support for their programme. The Christian Democrats have presented themselves to the people as a dam against the flood of Communism ; for the future (and present) they promise moderate social reforms and cautious economic measures for the recovery of the country and some stabilisation of the currency.

In a Europe depending upon and anxiously awaiting the benefits of the Marshall Plan it would be idle to promise anything more. In Italy people are inclined to discount the risk of a Communist uprising or a coup staged by the Cominform. The Communist leaders know that such an attempt would provoke a popular reaction that might wipe them out for ever. Many people say that Togliatti may now be recalled to Moscow and " liquidated " more Sovietico, like a General who after five years of tactics and preparation has lost the campaign. The thing in itself is immaterial ; and there are well-informed persons who say that Moscow has already placed behind Togliatti a watch-dog in the person of the Moscow-trained Grieco. The fact remains that the elections were a great battle between the Western and Soviet conception of life, between demo- cracy and Sovietisation, and democracy has won. The Italians did not want to believe in the love and help that would come from Russia " after " ; cynical and realistic as they are, they preferred the American friendship and assistance that had been coming "before." The talk of a "black reaction" may cause headaches to the hair-splitters ; but to describe De Gasperi as a potential dictator seems to everybody a poor joke.