THE HOUR IN EGYPT.
THE European public has a curious instinct about Egypt, a feeling that, however well matters may look there, nothing is permanently settled. The slightest event, a rumour, a disaster in the Soudan, the breaking of a dyke, an outburst of sickness, anything, produces a rush to sell Egyptian Stock, Suez Canal shares, all property affected by Egyptian prosperity. On Tuesday, for example, it was known that cholera, or it may be choleraic fever, had appeared in Damietta, and immediately there was a rush of sellers in every description of Eastern Bonds. As a rule, a popular impression of this sort has a serious basis, but this one is undoubtedly exaggerated. We do not like the situa- tion in Egypt, because we believe that until a Resident is appointed with a right, legalised by treaty, to offer his advice, good government in the Delta will be either a sham or an acci- dent, and that we shall be morally responsible for oppressions which we neither desire nor sanction. We dislike, too, arrange- ments which are only "understood," and against which, therefore, every one may intrigue without punishment ; but we are not blind enough to facts to deny that some sort of modus vivendi has been attained. Lord Dufferin has created a working Administration, though it may work in certain departments in too Oriental a way. So long as the Khedive lives, a sudden catastrophe need not be apprehended. He is a weak man, and possibly not so loyal as he is, very properly, assumed to be ; but he and his Ministry have recovered the reins, and are as clearly aware as the ex-Khedive Ismail, in
the Tinies of Wednesday, professes himself to be, that England is now the protecting State, and that they must take her instructions. At the head of every Department a qualified Englishman has been placed, and although they must obey the Ministry, the Ministry will be guided by Mr. Evelyn Baring, an experienced and, above all, a. determined man, who knows what he is expected to do, and what are the limits of interference. A Minister who was openly recalcitrant would go, as Riaz went. Nothing but the direct intervention of the Sultan, or a local insurrection, can stop the wheels of the machine from moving, and of either event there is little imme- diate probability. The Sultan, of course, dislikes the situation, for though he hated and dreaded the House of Mohammed Ali—which, if it had but the right man, would attract half the Mussulman world—he frets still more about the wound to ids ascendancy in Arabia caused by the loss of Egypt. That huge peninsula matters little to Europe, but a Mussulman Prince claiming to be Khalif must watch Mecca, or he may find his throne undermined by schism, and the Sultan does not like to see the English seated astride his nearest road to the Holy City. Still, he cannot interfere, except by intrigue, and a hint that intrigue would not be tolerated recently caused the recall of Kadri Bey, his agent in Cairo. As to in- surrection, there is no prospect of it. The upper classes of Egypt like neither Tewiik Khedive, whom they consider a Fellah, nor ourselves, whom they regard as disagreeable Westerns, intent on taking all pleasantness out of life, and in- different to their claims to spoil ; but they understand the force of England, and have not the people with them. The latter are beginning to comprehend that their taxes will not be increased, and gradually, if Mr. Baring can only enforce some compromise with the usurers—that is indispensable, and should be arranged more quickly—they will settle down to their labour. A few Sheiks will be thrown into prison for using the courbash too freely, and by degrees the Fellah life, though not as happy as English rule would make it, will be more endurable than in old days. The soldiers in the Soudan, who are peasants in arms, showed no reluctance to obey English officers, and those officers are slowly recovering ascendency for the Khedive. Except the peasantry, there is no class in the country to be dreaded. Egypt is not India, full of warrior races, and with peoples in it which, like the Sikhs, can make themselves visible and formidable without the sympathy of the majority. There is no warrior race in the country, and there is therefore time to try the remarkable experiment now going on. We do not believe it will succeed,because we do not believe that Eastern and Western notions of government can be made harmonious ; but there is no reason why it should end in a cataclysm, and not in a reform ; the failure will only be visible by degrees, and in the position of the people, not of the Protecting State, which is quite strong enough to maintain order. Of course, if Great Britain retires from Egypt, it will be time for capital to retire too, and there will be reason for any kind of alarm ; but Great Britain cannot retire till the mud has solidified, and that is a long date. If it does solidify—if, that is, a Native Adminis- tration feels that it can maintain itself easily without external support—then the object will have been maintained ; but till then, British protection, even if represented by a single sentry, must be visibly present. As to the scares of the hour, they seem to us unreasonable. That an outbreak of cholera may drive away some foreigners is possible, for Continentals, especially Frenchmen, Italians, and Greeks, lose their heads in presence of an epidemic. Even now, though the disease has probably been generated by filth, as it was when it first appeared in Lord Hastings' camp in the Mahratta country, the foreigners accuse the British of bringing it into the country by their laxity as to quarantine, that wonder- ful device for concentrating and intensifying all germs of disease. But the officials will not fly, and the troops will not fly. The latter, if the disease struck them, weuld be camped out in the _Desert, which is healthier than England, and the former encounter cholera every year in India. There it is never _wholly absent from the great cities, and breaks out un- expectedly at short intervals of time at station after station, • inflicting always much private suffering, but not disorganising • the Administration. There is no evidence that the epidemic will rise to the height which disorganises society, much less that it will attain the dimensions of a true plague. Egypt is not and will not be for years a sanitarium, or even a healthy residence for Europeans ; but the English face far worse climates in their African settlements, and yellow fever is, except in its . influence on the imagination, as dreadful a scourge as cholera, which, again, can -come as easily from India as from Egypt. The panic is a panic of cowardice, excusable only because it is not entirely selfish, and will do much more injury to Egypt than the epidemic itself. There is as little in it as in the other panic, about the Suez Canal. M. de Lesseps is not going to endanger his undertaking out of spite to the British, nor are the British going to fight France in order to take down M. de Lesseps' rather irritating pride. A second Canal is wanted, wanted exceedingly, wanted as much as a second line of rails on an overburdened line, but the second Canal will pay. It will, therefore, be cut, and the idea of an inter- national quarrel over the privilege of cutting it is too absurd to be entertained. We think ourselves the existing Company should cut it, because they have earned the right, because they are on the spot, and because they, and they only, can make the two Canals supplement each other, instead of competing ; but whoever cuts the ditches, the sovereignty over them will remain with Egypt. The ex-Khedive in his able sketch of the situation is perfectly right there. The State cannot part with its ultimate rights, and so long as it does not part with them, the nationality of the engineers of the Canal is a matter of the smallest importance. The Canal must be Egyptian, by whomsoever it is made. There may be difficulties, and quarrels, and troubles of every kind in Egypt, and there will be, while this experiment lasts, much misgovernment ; but disorder of the serious kind, the kind which imperils States, will only begin when the British flag retires. Long before that happens, the world will have full notice in a Parliamentary division that it is about to happen, and that Egypt for the second time is about to be left to itself, without the guidance even of authoritative advice.
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