FINANCE-PUBLIC & PRIVATE.

[By OUR CITY EDITOR.]

SIX MONTHS' PRICE MOVEMENTS.

[To the Editor of the SPECTATOR.] SIR,—The final Fortnightly Settlement on the Stock Exchange for the first half of the current year has served to give a clearer indication of the general state of markets. For some days previous to the Settlement rumours had been current that the setback in prices in some Depart- ments might be connected with the reappearance of our pre-War friends the " bear " operators. So far as the English Railway section at all events was concerned thege rumours were found to be justified, some of the leading stocks being distinctly scarce for delivery. In some of the other Departments of the House, too, there was a tendency for continuation rates to fall away, thus showing the speculative positions for the rise to be small even if they have not given place to actual "bear" positions. Certainly for the last year and a-half purchasers of stocks for the rise have had a good run for their money, and at the close of the half-year it may be interesting to note some of the movements in prices as compared with the be- ginning of the year and also as contrasted with the lowest quotations for the past three years. Accordingly, the fol- lowing table gives a few representative securities both in the Investment and Speculative sections of the House :—

Lowest in S years.

Price

Jan. 1, 11 an.

Present Price.

Rise from Lowest.

Consols .. . • 444 .. 55,1 .. 581

• •

+144 Conversion 31% . • 651 .. 744 .. 801

5% War Loan... • • 824 .. 100

.. 1014

+181 Victory 4% Bondi.,.. 72 .. 88

. . 931

+211 Bank StOck ..

163

.. 235 .. 254

• •

+91 India 3% .. 461 .. 55

.. 601

+14

Met. Cons. 31%

801 .. 93 .. 934

+13

New Sth. Wales 3% 1935 New Zealand-4% 1923..

611 91 ..

.. 78 101 82 .., 101

- .

+201 +10 G.W. Ry. 4% Debs. 621 .. 85

.. 89-

+261 G.W. Ry. Ordinary .. 57 .. 109 .. 1131

+561 Brazil 4% 1889 .. 35 .. 42 .. 42.

+ Egyptian Unified .. 574 .. 69 .. 701

+134 French 3% .. ... 20 .. 24 .. 20

Spanish 4% .. 69 .. 75 714

+21 Barclays .. 40 /;--

. 52 /- 56 /-

+161- Lloyds Bank Shares .. 42/-

58/-

62/-

City and Midland..

5/ .. 81

• • 81 +21

Nat. Provincial (23 10s.

paid) ..

.. 94

• • 101 +_2k

Westminster .. 121 .. 174 181

+51 Alliance Assurance ..

Sun.. 81

121

..

.. 111 161 13 181

+ + 51 41

*Mond

Brunner .. 31/6 . . 38/6 .. 38/6

+ 7 /- P. and 0. Deferred .. 258 . . 332 .. 310

• •

+52 T. and P. Coats .. 43 /-

66 /- .. /-

67

+241- English Sewing.. .. 26/6 • • 47 /- .. 50/-

+23 /6 Harrods 20/- • • 28/- .. 36 /-

+16 /- John Barkers .. 29/- • • 48/6 .. 48 /-

+19 /- Armstrongs .. 12 /6 • • 20 /- .. 1T/6

+ 5 /- Mexican Eagle Oil ..

.. If ..a I*

Royal Dutch .. . 281 • • 34 .. 304

+ 11 Shell Transport .. 31 . • • 41 .. 31

+ Chartered ..

Modderfontein 9/9 31 • • .. 12/-

. . 13 4/-

+ 3/3 + Rand Mines lf • • 3 .. 21

+

Central Mining .. 51 • .

. . 9 A-

4- 3 Goldfields .. .. 13 /-

16 /6 .. 19 /-

± et

De Beers .. 51 • • 131 .. 14

+ 8

Rio. Tinto Copper .. 23 .. 331 .. 35/

+124

From the foregoing it will be seen that the outstanding feature has been the great rise in Investment stocks. Thus, the present price of Consols shows a rise of nearly 15 points from the lowest, while Victory Bonds have risen over 20 points and almost as great an advance has taken place in the 5 per cent. War Loan. Finally, it will be seen that Bank of England stock has risen nearly 100 points from the lowest of 1921. At the same time, it may also be interesting to note that for the most part the old loans are still well below the pre-War level. Consols, for example, shortly before the outbreak of war stood at about 75, Bank of England stock at 250, and India 3 per cents. at 75.

Even more striking in some respects has been the appreciation in English Railway stocks, though com- parison is, of course, invalidated by the fusions of com- panies and capitals which have taken place. This, how- ever, is less noticeable in the case of G.W.R. Ordinary, which it will be seen has risen from 57 to about 114. A further interesting feature is the general advance in Bank- ing and Insurance shares, but in a good many of the Indus- trials, including the Shipping groups, present prices, though well above the lowest,, are also much below the best quotations even of the past twelve months. A few months ago it looked as though trade might revive and that industrials and speculative descriptions would experience a considerable appreciation. The prolongation of the Ruhr crisis, however, damped such hopes, and in some instances the foregoing table shows that current quotations are below those of six months ago. Moreover, it is rather striking that among the few securities which have experienced the ill-effects of the Ruhr crisis during the past six months must be included the French loans themselves.

Speaking broadly, however, it may be said that both as regards the volume of business and price movements the half-year has been a good one on the Stock Exchange, and some are doubting whether the second half of the year is likely to equal it. As regards first-class invest- ments descriptions it is felt that nothing but an assurance of continued ease in money justifies expectations of any further immediate important general advance, even though the present level may conceivably be maintained. As to whether easy money rates will prevail that must partly depend upon developments in international politics, though, as I indicate below, the likelihood of higher money rates is increasing. Given a continuance of the present wretched conditions of anxiety with regard to European affairs almost anything may happen in the way of continued stagnation of trade, but the present European situation is so impossible., that it is difficult to imagine its long continuance. Sooner or later (and sooner it must be hoped) a way out of the Reparation crisis will be found and the financial rehabilitation of Europe will begin in earnest. That is a process which will involve a strain on capital and should also produce a revival in trade.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the turn of the half-year should find operators in securities inclined to hold their hands for the moment pending developments in the political situation. Uncertainty as to the outlook for high-class Investment stocks is evidenced on the one hand by abstention from further pur- chases by large financial interests and on the other hand by reluctance on the part of specu- lators for the fall to attack the market at all seriously. The fact is not overlooked that investors' resources are still very great, as is constantly evidenced by the fresh issues of capital.—I am, Sir, yours faithfully,