TOPICS OF THE DAY.
FRENCH FEELING TOWARDS RUSSIA. THERE is something a little repulsive to Englishmen as well as surprising in the wild enthusiasm with which Frenchmen welcome the visit of the Czar. We also have had our ally, and have welcomed him, and thanked him, and forgiven him many things which were against our principles ; but we never lost our heads over Napoleon III. as Frenchmen seem inclined to do over Nicholas U. There is a suspicion among us that France has lost some of her self-confidence ; that she feels relieved of a secret fear ; that she is not only pleased with the Russian Emperor as a guest whose visit is, from his position, a compliment, but is in her inner mind grateful for his implied promise of protection. The suspicion has some foundation, but not so much as it is the momentary fashion to imagine. Frenchmen are brave, as their whole history proves, but then that history shows also that they are men with pessimistic imaginations. They have not the English and American individualism. They too can hunt tigers, but not alone. Their whole nature abhors loneliness, and, in spite of their courage, seeks with a End of feminine instinct for protection. e•No people accepted feudalism so readily, because in none was there such instinctive longing for comrades and a chief. When feudalism became insupportable they placed themselves in the hands of a King, and for the sake of protection from the caste endured for nearly five hundred years the long misery flecked with gleams of glory and prosperity which marked the reigns of the Valois and the Bourbon. It was the pro- tection he gave as well as the glory which made them the willing subjects of Napoleon, and which induces them even now to bear the otherwise intolerable burden of their adminis trative machine. They will always have an official at hand who when the emergency occurs will lighten for them the burden of self-defence. They love a strong, police, and while working and inventing and fighting, still seek always for help external to themselves. Their instinct, even in social life, is towards, not against, the patronus, and the Frenchman feels prouder as well as safer who can boast of a powerful friend. Just now they had begun to feel sotnewhat lonely in Europe. They suspect Mr. Chamber- lain, who for them embodies Great Britain, of designs against France ; they utterly, in spite of recent compli- ments, distrust the German Emperor ; they know that Austria will risk nothing to assist them ; and they have doubted whether Russia was not drawing away from the Alliance, and leaving them " isolated " and dependent on their own strength. At such a moment to be assured in a way they can all understand that they are not alone, that they can rely on the " Great Sovereign of the East," that they will be protected, not because they are weak, but because they are strong, is almost too delightful. Every man in the Republic feels as a Frenchman feels when an escort is sent to protect him because he is so eminent.
The immediate consequences of this enthusiasm will not, we think, be the commencement of any vast plan by the united Powers. They are neither of them ruled by men who initiate such plans, and they are neither of them anxious for a great war. It is the misfortune of Europe that the death of any one of three or four persons might upset all calculations, and plunge her into unexpected con- fusion ; but apart from that lamentable contingency, it is most probable that what we shall see is greater vigour and steadiness in the Russian advance to the Pacific, and a greater avidity in France for small diplomatic successes, such as M. Constans is supposed to have obtained in Con- stantinople. It is hardly in human nature for the Czar, with a great Western nation embracing his knees, not to feel safer on the side both of Germany and Great Britain, and if he feels safer he will pursue with more energy the two lines of the present policy of his country. He wants, personally wants as politician as well as ruler, to extend Russia to the Pacific in full sovereignty, and his Ministers want to solidify Russian influence in the Balkans. The first project is full of difficulties, especially in regard to the expense, which has been far greater than was expected ; but France can help greatly in that direction, and if the project is steadily pushed for ten years of European quiet, its ultimate triumph, sio far as can be foreseen, is assured. The second object is more difficult still; but steady pressure will accomplish much even in the Eastern Peninsula, and with France rebound. to Russia, Count Lamsdorff and the Pan-Slavonic group will feel their hands more free for the work to be done there. The fast, if it is a fact, that the Obrenovitch dynasty is not to be continued gives them a basis for many proposals and much intrigue. The Hapsburgs are difficult people to beat on a question so important to them as the future of Servia ; but if the Italians are, as reported, heartily supporting the claims of Montenegro to the reversion Of the Obrenovitch throne, the Russian Foreign Office has grand cards to play, and may be relied on to play them well.
But will the Dual Alliance, though newly cemented, last? There is nothing so useless as political prophecy, but we do not see why it should not. It can hardly be the interest of Russia to break it off, for whatever her projects it must always be more or less of a guarantee against any coalition to oppose them. She has practically no alterna. tive ally except Great Britain, for Germany cannot abandon Austria, or Austria cease to be opposed to Russia, and even if London and St. Petersburg came to an understanding there would be no necessity for leaving, France out of it. The two countries have no clashing interests anywhere, and it must always be pleasant to Russian financiers to have one great Bourse open to their appeals. Their estate is so vast and so little improved that they must always be wanting to borrow, if not for the purposes of the Empire, then to promote the undertakings by which they hope, it may be too confidently, to make the Empire rich. On the other hand, the desire of the French for the Alliance .springs, as we have shown above, from the very nature of the people,—which neither has changed nor will change. It is often alleged that the French, who have a hard business side to their heads, will very soon weary of an Alliance in which the benefits are all on one side ; but, then, is that quite true? If you insure vourself, the benefit of the insurance is all on one side till the contingency insured against occurs, and it is as an insurance that the French people as well as French statesmen regard the Russian Alliance. French Liberals may grumble and French Socialists may groan, but we see how the instinct of the people overbears them, and do not see what is to modify its force. All European combinations may be upset by some unfore. seen cause, but unless such a cause should intervene French. men will think many times-before they break finally with Russia. and so lose a sense of security and protection for which, as we contend, they have always a secret craving. That their country is a Republic while Russia is an autocracy has, as we argued last week, very little to do with the matter. France has forgotten Poland as well as the rest of the world, and all the world over arid°• crats and Radicals can mix when it is convenient without recalling too strongly the ideas and aspirations which permanently divide them. The recemented friendship may very easily last ten years—the Triple Alliance has lasted nearly thirty—and where in our modern world is the use of looking beyond ten years ? Imagine the fate of the prophet who ten years ago had predicted that in 1901 this country would have a. quarter of a million troops in South Africa, and see no prospect at once im- mediate and honourable of getting them back again.
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