TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE GREAT FACT OF 1898. THE dominant fact of the year 1898 has been the rise in the position of the English-speaking peoples, which has been so great that in a quiet week like this it is worth more than a moment's examination. And first as to the fact itself, which we fancy no one now denies. On the other side of the Atlantic, the people of the United States, moving as if they were forced on by some impulse from without, with a minute "Army in being," a President specially vowed to peace, and a Minister of War most kindly described as a short-sighted amateur, crushed the ancient Monarchy of Spain almost without an effort, seated themselves on great islands in the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific, and accepted a new policy, which, if pursued, will, to use the language of the German Emperor, change a local though powerful Republic into a World-Power with, it may be, a tendency towards wide expansion. They are, moreover, about to increase greatly their fighting Fleet, and to enlarge their Army up to a size which for a nation still adhering to voluntary enlistment is at least respectable. The Continent of Europe, though amazed and irritated by the new develop- ment, which, as the statesmen perceive, will alter many of the conditions both of national safety and international power, did not venture to interfere, and openly expresses apprehension that the change may one day compel a defensive coalition of all the military Powers of Europe. " America " has become, in short, within one year, in the eyes of those who control armies and fleets, almost a new, and conceivably a dangerous, Power.
Within the same year the position of Great Britain has been modified at least as much as that of the United States. One of those surges of contempt for her power which for the last century and a half have periodically swept over the Continent had made its appearance, and the Government, aware that such illusions often precede menace, yielded to a popular call for more precaution, and quietly raised the Fleet up to a war footing. It made itself ready to defy at sea any probable coalition. The Continent, a few keen observers excepted, paid no atten- tion; but in September the Government, which had just defeated the fighting tribes of the Indian North-West Frontier, crushed Mahdism in a great pitched battle, and practically conquered the whole of Ethiopia. The Dervishes revealed in the combat unexpected numbers, courage, and discipline, and the victory greatly struck the observant Staffs of the Continental Armies. They saw even more clearly than Englishmen that a great organising General had revealed himself on the British side ; that the expedition had worked throughout with the accuracy and speed of a machine ; and that the State which, while otherwise occupied, could strike such crushing blows was, in spite of her preoccupation in other pur- suits, both alive and formidable. They began to recon- sider their views as to British efficiency, and a new incident suddenly changed that reconsideration into a profound, even an apprehensive, attention. An agent of the French Government unexpectedly appeared at a point on the -Upper Nile, and in a polite but most determined way expressed his intention of remaining there until his own Government recalled him. His own Government declared such recall to be "impossible," and the world waited anxiously to see what Great Britain would do when thus clearly defied, not by an Asiatic or African State, but by one of the five Great _Powers. They had not long to wait. From every section of the people came itp that deep, low growl which means that the bulldog will clinch before he retires, the growl before which any British Government whatever, of either party or any opinions, im- mediately. gives way. The British signified by that growl that they accepted war if war were needful, and the French, shocked into a sudden perception of facts, recognised that at sea they were not ready, drew back, and surrendered the Upper Nile. The English did not parade success, very little was said in London, and the Government, though aware of an immense gain among the electors, gave no sign of exultation ; but the whole world recognised that the tranquil State, once threatened in its clear rights, would accept battle, even if the challenge came from a coalition. That was the highly disagreeable fact, and it made its full impression. The consequent change ii the attitude or the world was immense, and it was increased by a new fear. Might it not be possible that the two branches of the English-speaking race, both of them victorious, would join together for international purposes, and face the remainder of the world with a fleet which could not be overcome ? In the Spanish-American War the British, contrary to their custom, had sided en- thusiastically with the stronger State ; the Government of London, under circumstances not yet suited for dis- cussion, had rendered that of Washington a prodigious service ; and the Americans, touched to their hearts, gave up their half-unreal but long-standing dislike for the Mother-country. "They treat us as their kins- folk," they said, "even in the hour of danger," and the foundation of a friendship was laid. It was further developed by the discovery, which might have been made before, that America is a great Pacific Power, and that consequently her interests and those of her opponent in the Venezuela squabble are absolutely identical The result was a chorus of friendly expressions, which, whatever their precise value, at least mean this, that whenever a. common danger threatens both, there is no jealousy remaining to prevent the two proud, enterprising, perhaps audacious, nations from rushing together in arms, and se presenting a mass of power for defence which the rest of the world will estimate in proportion to the wisdom of its rulers. The English-speaking races, in fact, disregarded in 1897, are in 1898 regarded as the potential equals in combination of the remainder of the world.
Whether this immense change in international rela- tions will be consolidated without the occurrence of a great war must remain doubtful. We doubt it ourselves, believing that every pretension, if con- tinued long enough, is ultimately brought to some hard and brutal test, and that consequently the English- speakers are foolish in not developing their Armies ; but it is possible that such a struggle may be avoided for many years, or even till the Slav, in the pride of his numbers and their unity under one man who may then be a man with a genius for war, makes a spring for the dominance of the older world. But if it is to be avoided, or, proving inevitable, is to be carried through success- fully, Englishmen on both sides of the Atlantic must, we are convinced, remember and act on certain maxims at once of philanthropy and statecraft. They must not bicker too often or too bitterly, for acrid criticism, if it does not dissolve union, does weaken friendship. They must so govern their myriads of dark subjects as to make of them hearty allies, for if they do not they will find when the dark hour comes that battle with enemies is nothing when compared with multitudinous insurrection arising all at once the whole world over. We could not have recovered India in 1857 but that no Indian hated us enough to think himself disgraced by enlisting on our side. They must consider the work of governing a strenuous and painful occupation and not a mere enjoyment, using their best men in it, controlling them with sleepless vigilance, and carefully accom- modating their subjects' ideas of justice to those which more instructed races entertain. The objection to a native jury in India, for example, is not that it will be democratic, but that it will always acquit the wealthy and the highly born. And, lastly, they must keep down the febrile jealousy which suggests the policy of the dog in the manger. If they are going to fight for the right to govern China or South America, let them fight, but if they are not, they have no right, and insufficient power, to restrain other nations either from conquest or settlement. The worst thing we have known America do is to protect Venezuela in an injustice while repudiat- ing the obligation to govern Venezuela ; and the stupidest cry we have heard raised in England is that Russia must not have Manchuria, her natural Eastern outlet, because British trade might possibly be imperilled in the .far future. The English-speaking peoples may possibly govern half the world without graciousness and without system, but if they try to govern it without justice or con- sideration for the rights of others their dominion will on some terrible day come crashing down. Rome fell through slavery ; Spain through cruelty; Louis XIV. and Napoleon through overweeningness. If the new alliance is to be safe, its watchwords must be justice, mercy, and moderation.
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