One of those vicious, circles which raise doubt whether any
political problem can ever be solved now encloses the future of Indo-China. Unless it can be broken, the minor but brilliant offensive now being launched by loyalist forcesagainst the Viet Minh will be wasted. When the rains are lover, in the autumn, the Viet Minh will again be free to advance to the Siamese border and the fate of South East Asia will again be in the balance, unless General Navarre can complete his strategic refdrmation. He believes that he can finally defeat the enemy, on two conditions; the first is reinforcements in the field, and the second is a settlement of the political issues between France and the Associated States. On reinforcements, the French` have asked the Americans for help; the Americans have replied that any more extensive help on their part must depend on more extensive commitments by the French, and the French Cabinet are left with the question whether they can find more men to send to an area which may, in the end, choose to dissociate itself from France. So far as the political problem is concerned, unless the Associated States feel that their legiti- mate aspirations to independence are satisfied, they will not support the kind of offensive against the Communist nationalists that General Navarre has in mind. But if these aspirations are satisfied, this may so weaken France's ties with the Associated States that she can no longer agree to the spilling 'of French blood on what may virtually be foreign territory. For the Cambodians have demanded complete independence." But complete independence in the Cambodian sense is a concept that has no place in the French Constitution. The Constitution specifies collective responsibility for defence and foreign affairs to be vested in the High Council of the French Union. Thus complete independence, on the Indian model, would mean secession from the French ;Union. At the beginning of August, the Associated States are to start negotiations in Paris, at the invitation of the French Government. If those negotiations fail to find a formula which breaks through this circle, there is little to stop another Communist advance.
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