Will Brezhnev take the hint?
J3ohdan Nahaylo For years Western commentators on
Soviet affairs have been speculating about Leonid Brezhnev's health and his ability to remain at the head of the world's largest state. Subjected to the same morbid scrutiny for signs of wear and tear each time he makes a public appearance — as were Franco, Mao Tse-tung and Tito in their later years — the Soviet leader has battled on despite regular if conflicting reports that he is suffering from such debilitating ill- nesses as cancer of the jaw, severe arthritis, heart disease, gout, leukemia, emphysema and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.
Although Brezhnev is still very much alive and seemingly in control, there have been numerous indications in recent weeks that the knives are out in the Kremlin. Moscow has been buzzing with rumours of a Power struggle in the Soviet leadership which suggest at the very least a jockeying for position in preparation for Brezhnev's eventual departure, if not something far more ambitious and calculated designed to undermine his position or perhaps to per- silade him to retire while the going is still good. In the absence of constitutional ar- rangements for removing and replacing Soviet leaders, his rivals have no option but to resort to intrigue and manoeuvring just as Brezhnev himself did in October 1964 When his predecessor Nikita Khrushchev was ousted. The whole question of Brezhnev's succession is especially com- Plicated by the delicate balance of forces which has existed in the Politburo ever since khrushchev fell and was replaced by a 'col- lective leadership' — notwithstanding Brezhnev's apparent position of pre- eminence since the early Seventies — and recently by the death in January of Mikhail Suslov, the Kremlin's chief ideologist and king-maker. What evidence has there been of Byzan- tine machinations in Moscow? The incident most widely reported in the Western media Was the appearance of a satirical article by ,the Russian black humorist' Viktor
`l Leningrad in the December issue of the
Leningrad journal Avrora. Although the entire issue was dedicated to marking Presi- dent Brezhnev's 75th birthday, Golyavkin's 3O-word piece entitled 'Jubilee Speech' suggested in no uncertain terms, without actually mentioning Brezhnev by name, that it was high time that the latter retired. Ostensibly, it is about an outstanding "litho/. ____ Brezhnev has been eulogised in
`literary' Soviet Union among other things for his
contributions, and has been awarded the Lenin Prize for his memoirs who 'continues to live on and to everyone's s,urPrise ... does not think of dying', '°IYavkin expresses the hope that this
'super human being' will complete his re- maining work all the quicker and then, as soon as possible, take his place of honour among the Balzacs, Dostoievskys and Tolstoys, in the other world. Interestingly enough, the article is known to have been submitted several months before it was published, and it is reasonable to assume that the decision to include it in the anniver- sary issue was taken at a fairly high level.
Leningrad, it should be pointed out, is the political fief of Grigory Romanov who at 59 is one of the youngest members of the Politburo. It has, however, been suggested by some Western commentators that the Avrora article may have been aimed as much at Romanov as it was at Brezhnev. After all, about 18 months ago in an ap- parent attempt to discredit the up-and- coming Leningrad region party chief and Politburo member, rumours were cir- culated accusing him of abusing his posi- tion. Romanov, perhaps mindful of his im- perial namesake, had managed to procure for his daughter's wedding the use of the tsarist porcelain, which was smashed by his drunken guests.
On at least two occasions recently, Soviet television has temporarily broken with its practice of portraying the Soviet leader in as flattering a light as technically possible. Soviet viewers have been shown candid glimpses of Brezhnev as an old and frail man, staring vacantly into space while at- tending the funeral of Suslov, and weeping while another colleague was being buried. And not long ago a rumour spread that Brezhnev had actually died. As in the case of the Avrora article, indiscretions of this kind seldom occur in the Soviet Union by accident but, rather, are often used as political weapons.
'I wish someone would support me — I'm a right-wing gay.' Attempts also seem to have been made to implicate Brezhnev's family in corruption scandals. His 53-year-old daughter Galina is apparently a close friend of the artiste 'Boris the Gypsy' and Anatoly Kolevatov, the national director of Soviet circuses, both of whom are reported to have been ar- rested in connection with diamond and foreign currency smuggling and specula- tion. Additional reports have added a fur- ther twist to this story. Against the background of an official campaign against economic crime launched towards the end of last year, Semen Tsvigun, first deputy head of the KGB, decided to arrest 'Boris the Gypsy' but was sternly reprimanded by an irate Suslov who was anxious to suppress any scandal. After an argument Tsvigun committed suicide. His obituary in Izvestia on 22 January was signed neither by Brezhnev nor Suslov as would have been usual in the case of such a prominent of- ficial. A few days later Suslov was also dead. While Brezhnev and other Soviet leaders were attending his funeral, the KGB proceeded to arrest 'Boris the Gypsy'. Not long afterwards Kolevatov was detained and a search of his apartment revealed a hoard of over one million dollars in diamonds and foreign currency. As a Depu- ty Minister of Culture he had apparently amassed his fortune over the years by tak- ing money from performers whom he allowed to travel abroad.
At the same time, other rumours have been circulating about Brezhnev's son Yuri, who holds the post of First Deputy Minister for Foreign Trade. His extravagant in- dulgences at the state's expense are said to have caught up with him and he is under in- vestigation for alleged misuse of funds. Whatever the truth of these unconfirmed reports, they are undoubtedly embarrassing and damaging to the Soviet leader who for the last decade has vigorously encouraged the glorification of his person: The private lives of prominent Soviet personalities are usually kept a closely guarded secret, and it is therefore highly likely that these per- nicious details have been deliberately leaked at a high level. Although it is impossible to say with any certainty at this stage who is ultimately responsible, it seems that Yuri Andropov, the head of the KGB, must have a hand in it. How else would information of such a sensitive kind be permitted to cir- culate in Moscow and to filter regularly through to the Western press?
To add to the mystery the spring plenary meeting of the Soviet Communist Party Central Committee, scheduled to take place at the end of March, has been postponed until June. When in June 1957 Khrushchev was outvoted in the Praesidium, he trium- phed over his opponents by summoning an extraordinary meeting of the Central Com- mittee which not only backed him but also branded his adversaries as an 'anti-party group' and expelled them from the Praesidium and the Central Committee. This time, according to reports from Moscow, some members of the Soviet leadership fear that the plenum may discuss
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