MEDIA STUDIES
1998 may be the year in which the 'red tops' have their sales skimmed
STEPHEN GLOVER
In one respect newspapers have never had it so good. Advertising revenue has been booming because of strong economic growth. For a paper such as the Daily Mail, whose sales are close to an all-time high, the consequences are untold riches. But even as Lord Rothermere counts his rapid- ly increasing fortune, a surprisingly large number of titles are selling fewer copies than ever before and losing money. For some of these 1998 could be a dicy year.
The Independent is the most vulnerable, its September relaunch having been an abject failure. Sales are as bad as ever. The paper has too many suitors for closure to be a conceivable option, but one wonders how long its present owners, Mirror Group and the Irish Independent, will soldier on. The Mirror appears anxious to sell but the Irish aren't. Waiting in the wings are the Barclay twins and, less plausibly, our old friend Mohamed Al Fayed.
The Barclays may get the loss-making paper, either alone or, more likely, as new partners for the Irish. A big test comes in February when 'the brothers', as they are called, relaunch Sunday Business. In itself this is not an incredibly significant event. But Andrew Neil, the brothers' editor-in chief, has made much of the high quality of their new Sunday paper. He has also said that the Barclays would push the Independent upmar- ket. If Sunday Business is as elevated as Neil and Co. crack it up to be, they will go a long way towards convincing a sceptical world that they could make an equally good job of the Independent. If not, not.
There are other possible developments at the Independent. Some Mirror Group exec- utives are anxious to dump the paper's edi- tor, Andrew Marr, and install Rosie Boy- cott, editor of the rather fizzier Independent on Sunday. I can't see that she could make an awful lot of difference. Mr Man has struggled with ever decreasing budgets, and has lacked the support and inspiration of a proper publisher. How could Ms Boycott fare better? Possibly she might be able to cajole a little more money out of Mirror Group. But more radical measures are needed, and these will not be implemented by the paper's existing owners.
Mr Neil has said that the Barclays would try to merge the Independent on Sunday with the Observer. One way or another such an outcome has seemed likely for a long time, though not necessarily desirable. Yet the Sindie has undeniably strengthened a little in relation to the Observer, whose November sales were not far from an all-time low. Ironi- cally, the Observer has distinguished itself recently, making the running against Geof- frey Robinson, the Labour Minister who is a beneficiary of an offshore trust, and produc- ing a scoop about Mr Al Fayed. But in gen- eral the paper is a bit of a dog's breakfast and, despite cutting costs, is still losing a lot of money.
This is not greatly appreciated by its sister paper, the Guardian, which doubtless will have a successful 1998. There may, however, be a fascinating falling-out between Mr Al Fayed and the paper he has helped so much. Mr Al Fayed reportedly did not appreciate the Observer's recent story, and held Alan Rusbridger, editor of the Guardian and edi- tor-in-chief of the Observer, ultimately responsible. Oddly enough, Mr Rusbridger has never met Mr AI Fayed — though his predecessor, Peter Preston, did so on numerous occasions — and he doesn't seem anxious to repair the omission. If Mr Al Fayed continues to feel neglected, and if the Observer publishes any more unfavourable stories about him, I believe he may turn on Mr Rusbridger and the Guardian.
Among the other broadsheets, the Sunday Times continues to coin money at almost unprecedently high circulation levels, despite having an editor no one has ever heard of. The Daily Telegraph and its Sunday sister are likely to enjoy a good year. A very costly sub- scription scheme has largely been replaced by one that breaks even, and the Daily Telegraph should become seriously profitable again. Of course, the Times remains a worry to it. Both papers are investing in new Saturday sec- tions, and executives 'are talking excitedly about a 'Saturday war' in January. I can't get too excited by it all. The Times is becalmed at around 800,000 — some 300,000 behind the Telegraph — and I don't see how it can make up the difference for all Rupert Murdoch's genius for dreaming up new wheezes.
In the mid-market the Daily Mail will
`Yes, but they are magic beans.'
continue to thrive. Alas, things look much less good for the Express. Both the daily and Sunday continue to lose sales, and were close to an all-time low in November. How long can it go on? Richard Addis, edi- tor of both titles, is in a similar predica- ment to Andrew Marr, lacking the inspira- tion of a strong and knowledgeable publisher. He has done a rather spirited job with the daily but he can't begin to match the Daily Mail's resources. The Express on Sunday looks even more strikingly deficient when set alongside the Mail on Sunday. Something seems almost bound to happen in 1998, though there would be no point at all in putting Mr Addis's head on a platter.
As for the 'red tops', in some ways they have the greatest problems. The Sun, the Mirror and the Daily Star have collectively lost 25 per cent of their sales over the past 15 years. The decline continues, most pre- cipitously at the Mirror, about to be over- taken in sales by the Daily Mail. If David Montgomery, chief executive of Mirror Group, is not coming under pressure, he jolly well should be. Mr Murdoch may again cut the Sun's cover price, which would give a temporary boost as well as making life even more difficult for the Mir- ror. No very dramatic developments in 1998, I think, but perhaps a growing feeling that the 'red tops' are being left behind.
1998 should be an interesting year for those who share my fascination with news- papers. No doubt the biggest surprises and shocks will turn out to have been entirely unforeseen by me: an apparently secure editor cut down in his prime; a paper crest- ing the waves suddenly made to look fool- ish. We shall see. We shall also see which right-wing and left-wing newspapers join forces in attacking this government. Mean- while a happy new year to all my readers.
Lmy article of 6 December I criticised some papers, including the Express on Sunday, for not putting the record straight after the vicar of Donhead St Andrew was declared by Wiltshire police to be completely innocent of owning child pornography. Richard Addis, the paper's editor, has sent me a charming letter along with a small cut- ting which shows that the Express on Sunday did, in fact, set matters straight. I still believe the paper was wrong to carry a picture of the vicar the previous• week, and to name him, but Mr Addis's conscience is rightly clear.
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