and desultory, the spaces covered by the combatants at once
so vast and so unknown. Scarcely a hundred individuals in London understand the facts when they hear them, and pro- and the supply of munitions, including new European artillery, incur Russian hostility on such grounds, and England cannot has been most patiently collected. In Kuldja, General Tso, assume the Protectorate of such an empire as China against all the favourite of the dynasty, has undoubtedly a formidable the world, or single out one special Power which she forbids to army, used to victory for eight years, confident in its General, attack China, or rather, to attack her in the way calcalated to and so large that it has swept away already two strong king- bring the war to the speediest conclusion. So long as any diplo- doms, that of the Panthays and that of Yakoob Beg. The matic effort could avert the war, it was the duty of Sir Thomas accounts, true or false, which reach Cabul indicate that Tao Wade to intervene, and the duty. by all accounts, was actively per- has been successful at first, and that every tribe hostile formed ; but if war has actually broken out, there is nothing to Russia is thinking of insurrection ; and if he is not to be done but to await, and if possible to moderate, its result.
beaten decisively and at once, the Government of St. We have no wish to enlist the sympathies of our readers on Petersburg will have everything in Northern Asia to re- one side or the other. A serious defeat for Russia would conquer. He may be beaten. Nobody outside a narrow circle expel her from Northern Asia, and terminate a work, the of high military officials in St. Petersburg knows precisely the reduction to order of regions that only she can reach, which, force upon which Russia can rely in Northern Asia, the num- however imperfectly or blunderingly performed, may yet be ber of her effective soldiers, the precise depth of the hatred of the greatest advantage to humanity, the possibilities in- undoubtedly borne by some of the fighting tribes to China, or herent in Russian administration being, at all events, better the number of men she must sacrifice to concentrate any con- than any possibilities inherent in Chinese administration, siderable force. The Chinese who possess local knowledge which in these regions begins its tasks by deliberate extirpa- rely on her inability to do this, saying the Russian armies will tions. On the other hand, a serious defeat for China might be worn out on the march ; but they may find themselves mean anarchy throughout that vast Empire, a prospect which deceived. It is a characteristic of St. Petersburg, marked we can only regard with horror. But we would just point out through the history of the century, in Snwaroff's campaign as that a speedy peace can only result from Russian victories.
in the campaign of 1812 and that of 1878, that when pressed
THE WAR BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA. beyond a certain point the Court can take desperate resolu- IT is, we suppose, hopeless as yet to expect Englishmen to tions, can order tremendous risks to be run, and can press take any deep interest in this war between China and forward with a disregard of sacrifices which would destroy the Russia. They will be keenly affected by it before long, but morale of any other army. Acting at first like a cautious and until the Russian Fleet is fairly in motion they will read of it rather corrupt old Government, it acts at last like a huge only as they read of wars in Turkestan,—with a sense that the democracy, which, feeling itself innumerable, can and will
s - effort to understand involves too much intellectual trouble. sacrifice anything for victory. Sherman's " march into space The distance is so great, the information received so imperfect was not more desperate than General Gourko's march in winter across the Balkans. If Russia is beaten, some such effort, we may rely on it, will be made, and Tso crushed by the army of the Caucasus, transported into Central Asia under some leader bably not twenty would be justified in offering a decided of Skobeleff's character, and at any expenditure alike of means opinion as to the probable result. And yet the war is one and men. which appeals forcibly to the imagination, and may very But, before this, Russia has an easier course. which may speedily affect serious interests. China, it is clear, at last is bring the war and its progress home in a most disagreeable in deadly earnest. It is impossible to read such an account as way to the entire Western world. The weak points of the we published last week of politics in Pekin, and the memorials Chinese Empire are its dependence upon the ports for surplus by Chinese officials forwarded from Shanghai to the Times, revenue, the taxes of the interior being spent on provincial with the strange glimpses they afford of Chinese opinion, and administration, and on the internal militia which maintains Man- the guarded denials in the Russian newspapers, without per- darin authority ; and the accessibility of Pekin from the sea. ceiving that the War Party has won in the Chinese capital ; that The Russians, who are accumulating a large fleet in the nor- the Chinese trust their Generals, and are full of new military them Pacific, may blockade the Chinese ports, and they may pride ; and that, as a people, they approve and support the during autumn and winter transport a complete corps d'arruee war. The memorials published by the Government, or with to the northern coast of China fer a direct march upon Pekin. its permission, from officials everywhere show that the statesmen In the latter case, the very existence of the Empire would be of Pekin know what they are doing, that they intend war at all in question, as the Russians in Pekin would be its masters, and points at once, and that they reckon on the ultimate retreat of would not retire, as the English and French did, without the Russians from the neighbourhood of their frontier. It is, guarantees of the strongest character against the revival of the in fact, a war for supremacy throughout Northern Asia, danger they would have so narrowly escaped. The treaties over the whole of the vast and almost invisible territory then to be framed would concern all Europe, which does not stretching away at the back of the semi-civilised world, and desire to see Russia supreme and lonely at Pekin. In the for- as yet almost unknown to European mankind. The Chinese mer case, which is more imminent, all Western Europe would have already invaded Kuldja and Russian Manchouria alike, and feel the stoppage of the Chinese trade, and the British in par- obviously intend, if they can, to drive the Russians out of all the ticular would suffer, not only from the loss of their supply of possessions stretching between those two points, in practice more tea, which does not seriously matter, but, as the Economist has than three thousand miles apart. Their movement has aroused pointed out, from the interruption to the Indian opium revenue. the Mussulmans of the Khanates, and the Turkomans still farther The annoyance inflicted will be very great, and it is difficult west, till from the Caspian to the Yellow Sea Russia is called to see by what means it is to be prevented. The Western on to hold her own, and resist new attacks from armies which, Powers, who have themselves invaded China, have no right in comparison with any tribes she can summon to her aid, to say that Russia alone, of all the Powers, shall not may be considered regular. She will be compelled to use invade, still less that she shall not, in the midst, of a regulars before she wins, and regulars in armies which thirty war, use the customary right of a blockade. The Chinese, it years ago would have been thought considerable, and to push is evident from the memorials, think the European Powers will them over roadless spaces before which the distances that in- prevent this, but there is no excuse perceptible for such an tervened between her great garrisons and Sebastopol are almost intervention. The West might fairly insist that an empire insignificant. To transport a strong land army from Russia like China shall not be destroyed, or thrown into anarchy, or to Manchouria by land would be a business of three years at dismembered, but they cannot interfere to prevent its defeat. least. Before the war ends every tribe in Northern Asia may They have no case. Even supposing Russia unfair in wishing be involved, and unless Russia can strike effectually by sea, it is to keep part of Kuldja in return for her expenses, she sub- more than doubtful if, without an effort which will cost her as mitted the whole matter to negotiation, and the fact that the much as a European war, she will be able to succeed. We are Chinese Plenipotentiary surrendered too much, even if it be a not pretending to knowledge of minute detail, when we say fact—and his treaty was certainly not favourable to China—is that all the evidence shows Russia to be at present weak to no ground for interference by other Powers. Technically, at all impotence in Manchouria, and nearly over-matched in Kuldja. events, China is hopelessly in the wrong, the Government In the former region, the Government of Pekin will employ having rejected a treaty signed by their own plenipotentiary the army of the capital—possibly under Chinese Gordon, who and invaded Russian territory during a peace,—and while, is already on his way—are near their resources, and can call indeed, the Russians were awaiting the arrival of Marquis out the mounted Tartar tribes, through whom they hoped to Teng with new proposals. We should not endure such high defeat the English and French advance in 1858. Those tribes handed action for a moment, and our frontiers do not march are far better armed than they were, the Army has been drilled, with those of China for thousands of miles. France will not 'The Chinese, if successful, will war on for twenty years ; and Russia, unless she abandons Asia altogether, must go on fight- ing, at any expenditure, whether of means or men. She can- not yield without retiring, any more than we could in the Indian peninsula, and there is short of the Caspian and the Ural nothing to retire upon. Her dominion out there behind the world, marvellous as it is, is based only on the belief in her power ; and that once shattered, every tribe throughout the whole region would fight, not for China, but for its own hand. The swift defeat of Teo, which would paralyse the War Party at Pekin and bring Prince Kung to the top once more, is the only visible event which would speedily terminate a war which, distant as it looks, may in a few months, or even weeks, be brought painfully home to us all.
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