The Dublin dimension

Patrick Bishop

Othe opening day of the New Ireland ‘.../Forum the leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party, John Hume, said: 'Let no one doubt the Forum's impact on British and international opi- nion.' Since then the British public and British politicians seem to have formed only the sketchiest idea of what has been going on there. When mention is made of it peo- ple tend to think you are talking about Mr Prior's Ulster Assembly, or else referring to Belfast's leading hotel which, confusingly, is also called the Forum.

It is altogether an unfortunate name sug- gesting a discotheque where the bar-staff wear togas rather than a great constitu- tional enterprise. Irish politicians and the Irish public, however, are taking the exer- cise very seriously indeed. For nine months politicians from all the constitutional na- tionalist parties in the island have been meeting under the cold gaze of the viceregal portraits that still hang in Dublin Castle. Just about anyone who is thought to have anything relevant to say on the Northern problem has been hauled in for cross- examination. An army of researchers has generated reports, papers and graphs.

The party leaders have dutifully turned up to all the major sessions and all sides have foresworn mud-slinging on Forum- related matters. Even Mr Charles Haughey, who normally cannot see a belt without in- structing an aide to hit below it, has behav- ed with impressive dignity and restraint. For a few nerve-racking weeks it was thought he might wreck the show by in- sisting that the Forum report come out unambiguously behind one of the three constitutional models that have emerged from its deliberations as possible panaceas for Ulster, preferably the oldfangled option of a unitary state. At the last minute he stepped back into line, preserving the precious unanimity of the Forum report on this matter and winning applause from all quarters for his statesmanlike approach.

We shall learn whether all the effort has been worth it when it is unveiled at the end of next month. It was to have been publish- ed earlier, to allow the Americans enough time to digest the . report before the Taoiseach makes his traditional St Patrick's Day visit, but Mr Haughey's generosity of spirit faltered slightly in the final stages of drafting, so Dr FitzGerald will be deprived of a small diplomatic triumph. But there will still be time for Mrs Thatcher to mull it over before the Anglo-Irish summit in June. In the meantime the report will be pushed for all it is worth on the third and increasingly important front in the unifica- tion campaign — the European Parliament.

Inevitably all this raises expectations especially among the SDLP and the dwindl- ing band of respectable Nationalists they represent. Dr FitzGerald, at least, knows what the outcome of this may be. 'It is con- ceivable (though I think it unlikely),' he told the opening session, `that we might fail . . . we might simply get it wrong. The price of such a failure would be to make a bad or dangerous situation worse.'

One might be more inclined to share Dr FitzGerald's optimistic view of the Forum's chances of turning out well if it had been conceived at a more auspicious moment. In fact it owes its existence to the combined frustrations of the SDLP and Dr Fitz- Gerald. John Hume invented the notion in order to provide a role for his party after it had decided not to participate in the Ulster Assembly following the elections in which it was badly bruised by Sinn Fein. It chimed nicely with Dr FitzGerald's desire to revive his 'constitutional crusade' to transform the Southern state into a more agreeable prospect for Northern Protestants.

Part of its work has been canvassing a wide spectrum of opinions, most of which

are already pretty wT eh lel SkpneeLvna a3 bMarchout w1h9a8 t4 constitutes the Ulster problem. Everyone has had a say from Sean MacBride, representing Green romanticism, through exotic hybrids like Dr George Gordon Dallas, the Presbyterian Republican, tu, such unreconstructed Unionists as the Revd William T. MacDowell. If the Forum achieves anything, it maY be the destruction once and for all of the touching belief held by many Southerners that if only ordinary Unionists were allowed the chance to speak for themselves they would turn out to be far less intransigent than their politicians made them appear.. Deputy Ray MacSharry of Fianna Fall wanted to know from Professor David Harkness of Queen's University, Belfast, whether British withdrawal would make Protestants more amenable to the idea of a united Ireland. 'As a student of Unionism I can only say that they would rather ea grass and do without British support than come in and enjoy RTE,' he replied. These exchanges have been fun but theY are not what the Forum is really all about. Mr Haughey was the frankest of the PartY leaders as to the object of the exercise, when he told the Forum members: 'Our purpose is .to construct a basic position which can then be put to an all-round con- stitutional conference convened by the British and Irish governments as a Prelude to a British withdrawal.' As well as Mr Haughey's favoured salT tion of a unitary state two other proposals are being put forward for consideration: a federal state ruled from Dublin but \Ath at government in. Belfast, and a form of

sovereignty of the North between Dubs' and London.

To achieve any measure of success in tiles eyes of the participants of the Forum, Mr Thatcher must at least appear to take thesr; proposals seriously. In the words of one 0_1 the desperate men of the SDLP as he took 4 glass of whisky at one of the jolly gather: ins that have followed the public sessiontiss. 'If she doesn't act in the next few rnouto then the chance is lost for the next years.'rs There is, of course, no sign that , Thatcher will do any such thing, despite tad fact that in recent months Northern Irelall Office ministers have been anxious to gest that the Ulster conundrum is begillul.l! to hold an irresistible fascination for trit: Prime Minister. So far the only con crecii evidence for this has been an unexPee,t at summons to John Hume to have a drank

Number Ten. hat-

Dr FitzGerald will be hurt if Mecr r Y.;

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Cher Forumtwreialltstahye, 'I told respfull retreat to reflex Republicanismyuonutisl°;10ll11.?: amenable administration turns out. It will be a far more serious matter for Mr Haout. He has staked his party's future on au_ to come that proves its claim to be abt,the deliver by peaceful means. The peak °toy SDLP's influence on Southern Politi,eslion turn out to be the prelude to the exult'

of its authority in the North.