3 OCTOBER 1891, Page 6

GENERAL VON CAPRIVI ON PEACE.

IF the "Sovereigns and statesmen" of Europe actually govern, as Lord Beaconsfield thought they did, there must be peace in Europe for some years. They rise one after another, to affirm with ever-increasing solemnity that they dread the next great war ; that they will do nothing whatever to further its outbreak ; that, for the present at least, it is next to an impossibility. We quoted last week a speech made at Goffritz by the German Emperor which, if correctly reported, proves that he positively shudders at the idea of the war, and that he will not hasten it, if it must come, by a single month, even though his reluctance should lose his country all the advantage which anti- cipating his enemy might secure. M. Ribot, the French Foreign Minister, on Sunday, in a speech at Bapaume marked by a stately calmness which for years past has been wanting in the oratory of French Ministers of State, gave the restoration of France to her place in Europe as the very reason why she would not go to war. "It is not at a moment when,". having, as he had previously explained, found a great ally, "France is in a position to cultivate peace with the greatest dignity, that we shall expose ourselves to the danger of compromising it." That is a most remarkable " aside " to be addressed to Europe ; and it is evident that the German Govern- ment, slow as it is to trust professions, honestly believes this one, and does not expect war. The German Chan- cellor, General von Caprivi, on Sunday declared at a public breakfast in Osnabruck, that "anxiety as to whether the present situation could be maintained was groundless," and that "no Government in Europe, so far as he could judge, desired to bring about a war which would probably exceed all former wars in its sufferings and results." General von Caprivi has not the personal ascendency of Prince Bismarck, but he is master of his department, he is entirely trusted by his Emperor, and he must know that general tone of each Court which, far more than its declarations, gives the clue to its designs. Yet in the evening he went even further, and in the midst of officers only, and at a gathering only partially public, he declared that "at the present moment there was not the slightest ground for doubting that peace would be maintained; no cloud darkens the political horizon." We have, therefore, the British Premier, the French Minister for Foreign Affairs, the French President, the German Emperor, the German Chancellor, and the Austrian Emperor, all asserting that peace will be, can be, and shall be preserved. Moreover, though the Russian Emperor rarely speaks in public, and probably, owing to Panslavist pressure, would not, if he did speak, be quite so emphatic in favour of peace, it is well known that this is his opinion also ; that he dreads the awful responsibility of the great war, and its conceivable effect upon his dynasty; and that, if he is left free to act, war will be indefinitely postponed. The rulers of Europe in fact say that, for their part, they intend peace ; and we see no reason whatever for sus- pecting them of deception. That they could deceive if necessary, we should not question, the ideas of the elder diplomacy still governing the Courts of the Continent ; but on this occasion their words have a ring of truth. They do not say the conventional sayings about war and blood- shed and the will of God, but confess openly that they are afraid of war when it involves such unlimited liability. We believe they are speaking the simple truth, and that if any one of them could by a considerable sacrifice of his personal comfort make peace certain for twelve mouths, he would decide upon the sacrifice without hesitation.

Why, then, is not Europe finally reassured ? If all the masters of armies honestly mean peace, and the armies themselves are fully obedient to discipline, why should the general public fear war, or study rumours with trembling anxiety, or hesitate to stake its money on enter- prises involving "long commitments " ? The populace cannot make a war, nor can the armies begin campaigning without the full consent of the Sovereigns and statesmen with whom, and not with the soldiers, the keys of the Treasuries rest. The answer is to be found in three facts, of which the public has fully as many means of judging as . the rulers. The first is, that war very frequently arises from unexpected causes ; that Europe of late years, its Sovereigns included, has repeatedly been deceived by appearances ; and that, whenever the wind blows, ships lying close to each other may collide without their captains' will. In the present state of Europe, a storm- wave may sweep at any moment over the surface of opinion, driving the ships together, and rendering all precautions nugatory or absurd. A cry may be heard in France or Russia, or even Germany, before which the Governments of those countries can do nothing but bow their heads, aware that, if they resist further, their moral weight with the armies will be lost or fatally impaired. The second is, that the Sovereigns and statesmen, though entirely honest in their professions, and though personally indisposed to war, are not absolutely sure of their own consistency or of their neighbours' faith. A distrust of the imme- diate future lurks in all their hearts. Not one of them would so much as consider a project of dis- armament. They are not anxious, as their prede- cessors were, for the support of more troops, they are frightened at the pressure of the conscription, and they would be delighted to relieve their Treasuries from almost unendurable demands ; yet, if asked to abstain from adding to their forces, from increasing their military budgets, from revising armaments only just completed, they would shake their heads in melancholy silence, and plead necessity. They all feel poor, they all dread Socialism, they are all convinced that solvency is the very life of States ; yet they all, while honestly declaring that they expect peace, are preparing to ask their peoples for fresh supplies, useless or worse, unless war is very close at hand. The additions which will be made next spring in France to the fortifications against Italy, in Germany to the artillery, in Austria to the line—twenty- nine thousand men—and in- Russia to the cavalry already massed in the West, would at any other time not only appal but seriously anger the officers responsible for the different Exchequers. If peace is so certain, why this unwilling outlay of treasure wanted, as Sovereigns and statesmen entirely recognise, for a hundred better ends ? There will be no flood, they say, but double the thickness of the dykes ; there shall be no flood, but multiply the watchers against rat-holes by three; there can be no flood, but renew the puddling all along the sea-walls. And lastly, the public sees, and the Sovereigns and statesmen see, that none of the true causes of war are removed, or can be removed, by any effort which rulers are competent to make. France cannot peacefully recover her provinces. The Germans cannot get away from their dangerous posi- tion between two fires. The Slav cannot rid himself of his longing to get out of the locked room in which he has grown so strong, and be free, as other peoples are, to range all over the world. The enmities, and above all the secret apprehensions entertained by each of the great races, are neither mitigated nor suspended. The only thing, in fact, that is sure, is that governing men mean peace ; and governing men are of all men those whom circumstances, or changes of opinion, or changes among their connection, most rapidly affect. A death—that of the Emperor of Austria —might in a day change the whole face of European politics. We can see no reason in M. Ribot's speech, though we recognise its conciliatory dignity, nor General von Caprivi's speech, though we perceive its hearty sincerity, for altering the opinion we have all along endeavoured to defend, which is, that the Sovereigns honestly dread war, that, aided by circumstances, they will be able to keep it off for this year ; but that the causes leading to another great war are permanent, are beyond the control of all the rulers together, and may suddenly and unexpectedly manifest an almost volcanic force. The captains of the fleet may all remain friends, as for practical purposes they all at this moment are, and yet the ironclads may collide.