The official return of the revenue for the first half
of the financial year, which was issued on Wednesday night, shows that the receipts were some £4,400,000 less than in the corresponding period for 1907. As the remissions of taxes in the Budget were expected to make a net decrease of only £2,187,000 for the whole year, this is a very serious decline. In other words, if things do not improve very much in the next six months, but remain as bad as or become worse than they are, we shall have to face a deficiency of something like five or six millions sterling, quite apart from the twelve or thirteen millions which will ultimately be required for old-age pensions, increase of the Navy, education, the unemployed, and other matters. No doubt the ways in which the revenue comes in are often most unaccountable, and a bad first half-year is sometimes balanced by a very good second, especially in the matter of Death-duties and the Income-tax. It is to be noted, however, that the decreases seem to be all along the line, and also that there is no appearance of any considerable revival of trade, but rather the reverse. For ourselves, we shall be very much surprised if the loss of revenue is not between four and five Millions more than the estimate. But if we are to have an honest Budget—a Budget in which devices are not adopted to tide matters over for another year—this must mean the raising of close on twenty millions of new taxes.
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