3 SEPTEMBER 1937, Page 15

Commonwealth and Foreign—H.

THE PSYCHOLOGY OF CHINA

By E. M. GULL

WHILE everyone now sees that neither of the two incidents which immediately preceded the undeclared war between China and Japan—the clash between Chinese and Japanese troops in North China at Wangping, and the killing of two Japanese officers at Hungchao, near Shanghai—can be described as the causes of the conflict, the degree and nature of the tension which had come to exist at the end of June are only beginning to be realised. This is in part due to the lag—a lag that is largely unavoidable—between expressions of public opinion and evaluation of their significance, an evaluation which has in the first instance to pass through the phase of translation from Chinese and Japanese into English. On June 29th, for example, the Chinese newspaper, Ta-kung Pao, published a leading article, the significance of which had become much clearer by the time it was available in London than it was at the end of June. The Ta-kung Pao is one of the most important newspapers in China, and has hitherto been published at Tientsin. It is now being published in Shanghai.

The article in question dealt with the future of Sino-Japanese relations. The opening sentences were these " Japan's attitude towards China has recently given indica- tion's Of -a change for the worse. The new Cabinet is worse than the preceding Cabinet. Amongst the reasons for this are misinterpretations and mistakes. . . . Let us recall statements contained in telegrams from Tokyo : ' China's evaluation of her own progress is too high ' was one. Another was : China is under the impression that Japan is retreating.' " The general impression in England during the spring had undoubtedly been that Japan was inclined to pursue a more moderate policy. The Ta-kung Pao, however, proceeds to say :- " What Chinese really feel is that Japan has not retreated a single step : that she has not changed in the smallest measure. . ... China's most ardent hope is that Japan's ' retreat ' may be converted into advance. Her most ardent hope, to speak more simply, is that the wrong kind of progress may be replaced by real progress. Japan does not realise this. In making the wrong kind of progress she has not retreated a step, and for her, notwithstanding this, to say that China thinks she is retreating and is therefore becoming contemptuous, is indeed a complete misinterpretation."

This passage is immediately followed by one which throws further light on the psychology of the present situation. The belief that China would in no circumstances resist Japan by military force was widespread a month ago. There were a few who thought otherwise, but they were in a minority, while amongst those who scouted the idea of resistance were men who had but recently returned from China, and whose opinion could not but be regarded with respect. How long China can, or is likely to, maintain her resistance is probably a disputed question. All that need be said here is that Japan appears, since hostilities began, to have become rather less confident than she was. More than that, however, needs to be said in answer to the question, what is China, so obviously the weaker party militarily, relying on ? According to the Ta-kung Pao that question has been puzzling Japanese publicists for some time prior to June last. Here is the paper's reply : " We may answer this clearly by saying that what China is relying on is simply her consciousness of renaissance. She aims resolutely at building up a country equal to modem standards. She has already succeeded in putting an end to civil discord, and in placing the country's central government upon a firm basis. From now on there will be no more internal discord in China, or if by any chance there is it will be quickly pacified. China's central government will be unitedly supported by her 400,000,00o people and remain unshakeable. This cohesion will become stronger and stronger, more and more robust. In a word, what China is relying on is simply her common consciousness of her resolution to build up a country able to defend itself : her profound conviction that a people possessed of this common consciousness cannot perish, cannot be destroyed no matter what the circumstances. That is what China is relying on."

In view of the increasingly heavy strain which China's new- found unity will be forced to bear, those sentences give hostages to fortune with a vengeance. The answer to them has not been long in coming. " Japan's best course," Prince Konoye was reported to have said a few days ago, " is to beat China to her knees, so that she will no longer have any spirit to fight."

But there is more than revelation of psychology in the article under notice ; or ought one, instead, to say that it carries psychology into a wider field of international relations than China's and Japan's ? For it proceeds : • " There are several points which we should like the Japanese public clearly to apprehend. First, the world is still a world dominated by the white races, and amongst those Great Powers there is not one which is not jealous of Japan, not one which during recent years has not only felt jealous of her but feared her. The military preparations of America, Russia and England at the present time are without exception aimed at Japan, at least in part.

" Secondly, do not suppose that an entente with Italy and Germany will enable you to twist Europe round your little finger. Notwithstanding the sacrifice of Spain, we are confident that the most important countries are not inclined for, and will not allow, war. Another European war would ruin Europe. The common consciousness of the white race is opposed to this.

" Thirdly, do not think that by having an understanding with England at the present time, you will be all the more able to prosecute your desire for a continental policy. During recent years all the most important countries in Europe or America have without exception realised the limitless nature of Japan's plans for expansion. Englishmen especially realise the vital importance of defending their territories in the Pacific and the South Seas. Accordingly, the conversations which are taking place in London, no matter what their terms, or how much they result in, will make no difference to the main currents of world tendencies.

" Fourthly, the statement that your continental policy is only directed against Russia is discredited in China, and does not command a hearing in other countries. It may be true that Russia is the primary objective of Japan's military preparations. Yet why does Japan regard Russia as her opponent ? Is the answer that Communistic theories must be warded off ? But, it is clear that Japan's political institutions are as impregnable as a military castle, and that there need be no anxiety about her ' going Red.' Moreover, can thought be held in check by military strength ? . . . No. The chief purpose of Japan's conti- nental policy is no other than the control of China. Such preparations as she is making against Russia are being under- taken with an eye to the circumstance that Soviet Russia may constitute an obstacle to her prosecuting this large continental policy."

The article as a whole may be taken as representing the outlook of every thoughtful and patriotic Chinese.