3 SEPTEMBER 1943, Page 1

THIEF the Pope was on Wednesday broadcasting an appeal


for peace this year the American Magazine was publishing an article by Mr. Harry Hopkins suggesting that the war against Germany might continue for another two years. This is a sobering estimate, and reasons can be adduced for more optimistic estimates. If Allied offensives on the Continent are to be indefinitely delayed, the war, no doubt, will be indefinitely prolonged ; but there appear to be signs that, failing the rapid consummation of negotiations or soundings which are rumoured to be in progress, movement against Italy is impending. Another factor whose effect cannot be ade-, quately computed is the continuance of the raids on German cities, such as Berlin and Nuremberg have experienced again in the pas* week. Evidence from neutral sources that German morale is being visibly shaken are convincing, but Germany's concentration on the construction of fighters, rather than bombers, is making its conse- quences felt. Our losses of bombers in the last three big raids have been 58, 33 and 47 respectively. The raids were heavy and the percentage of loss is not high, but there is evidence of some improvement in the German defences. This is clearly a moment for intensifying bomber output to the maximum. The crews are avail- able and the Allied strategy is marked by imagination and resolution. Few responsible people expect to see the war end this year but the effect of the winter on homeless millions in Germany and the retreating German armies in Russia may prove more decisive than is generally anticipated.