HARVEST COMMENT
By H. D. WALSTON
T T is usual for the effects of drought, flood or frost on farming first
to be ignored entirely by the general public and then to be grossly exaggerated. Public opinion is running true to form so far as the effects of our summer on the harvest are concerned. It was in- furiating during the early days of August, when we were all set to start harvest and listened eagerly to the weather forecasts, to hear that rain was likely to stop play in the Test Match, and that the holiday crowds at Brighton would be well advised to take their umbrellas with them, with never a word about what the weather would allow farmers to do ; and later, after the harvest had become "news," it was equally infuriating to read grossly exaggerated accounts about devastation and difficulties and to see pictures of land girls harvesting with the help of a hurricane lamp. Because of this it may be helpful, now that the back of the harvest is broken, to try to put things in their proper perspective.
Harvesting in England has a traditional importance far in excess of its true economic importance to the Industry. Wheat, oats, barley and rye contribute only a very small proportion to the total farm income. Before the war the total value of wheat and other cereals amounted to only 5 per cent of farm sales, and, while this proportion may have increased slightly in the last ten years, it still plays only a relatively small part in the national farm economy. Of far greater importance from the financial point of view are livestock, fruit and vegetables, and the weather which suits livestock and vegetable farming is frequently the weather which is highly unsuitable for cereal farming.
"The farmer's a difficult fellow to please, The weather is never what suits, For either the rain is destroying the grain, Or the drought is destroying the roots."
This year the rain which has done so much damage to the grain harvest has given us a magnificent supply of grass with which to feed our livestock during the summer, and if we have acquired the habit of making silage, it has also given us winter fodder. Furthermore, it has encouraged the growth of turnips, mangolds and kale, and increased the cash crops by giving us what promises to be very heavy yields of potatoes, sugar-beet and vegetables. It is unlikely, therefore, that the farm income for 1948 will be any lower than it was in 1947. The chances are that, after allowances are made for higher prices this year, it will be considerably in excess of last year's figure.
But that does not mean that we can look on this year's harvest with equanimity. Even on farms whose main source of income comes from livestock, the corn harvest still has an importance out of all proportion to its economic value. It is as if it typified the whole farming process, the months of hard work and of preparation and waiting, culminating finally in the ripening of the crop. The same thing happens in livestock-breeding, but it is long drawn out, taking years instead of months ; and the climax, when it comes, is
gradual, first one home.-bred heifer coming into milk and then another, instead of the whole lot coming at once as with the corn harvest. On top of this there is the time factor. With corn every- thing must be done together ; the days are getting shorter ; the weather, in theory at least, is likely to get worse, and the crops if not harvested immediately will deteriorate. Even on farms which depend primarily on livestock successful completion of the corn
harvest gives the farmer a sense of achievement which is of great psychological value ; conversely, a failure to gather in the harvest has a psychological importance which far outweighs any financial loss which it may entail.
I do not want to imply that a failure of the corn harvest is of no economic significance at all. From the national point of view this may have an element of truth, but from the individual point of view it is very far from true. A wet season may do more good than harm to the country as a whole, but in certain areas it will do far more harm than good, and for certain individuals this year's harvest is little short of a disaster. Take, for example, a small mixed farm in the Midlands-200 acres or so, half of it grass and the other half arable crops. It is run on the principle that the wages are paid out of the milk cheque and other receipts, and profit comes from the
sale of the arable crops, mainly wheat. Of the hundred acres or so devoted to arable crops twenty will grow oats and beans as fodder for the cows, five or ten will be kale and mangolds, also for fodder, and the remaining seventy will be crops for sale—a few acres of sugar-beet and potatoes and the rest wheat, and perhaps barley. The total income from these seventy acres will be about £3,000, and of this at least L2,000 will go towards meeting expenditure other than wages—rent, fertilisers, seed, field implements and so on. The balance will be the farmer's profit for the year, probably £750 to kr,000—not an unreasonable profit on a 200-acre farm if you get your house rent-free, and eggs, milk and vegetables thrown in. But it is surprising how quickly this £750 can disappear after a few days' rain. Expressed in terms of wheat £750 is about 125 quarters. The total yield of wheat on this farm, if one assumes it has fifty acres devoted to it, should be about 250 quarters all told. In other words, a loss of so per cent, of the wheat crop will mean a complete disappearance of all profit, while a reduction of 25 per cent, in the wheat crop will mean a halving of the normal profit—and this on a farm which is far from being a specialised cereal farm and where the bulk of the income comes from livestock.
Now let us take a different type of holding, a purely arable farm in East Anglia of, say, 600 acres. Cropping here will be somewhat as follows: 300 acres of barley, 104 acres of wheat, 50 acres of sugar- beet and the balance devoted to fodder crops—hay, mangolds and oats—for the livestock on the farm. In a normal year at present- day prices receipts from barley would be about £9,000 and from wheat and sugar-beet L2,000 each, while other receipts—bullocks, pigs or poultry—would probably amount to another £2,000 or L3,000. The total receipts of the whole year should be something between £15,000 arid L16,000, while expenditure would be about L13,000. In a harvest such as this one 25 per cent, of the barley and wheat crops may easily be lost, thus reducing the income by nearly £3,000, and, while the sugar-beet yield is likely to be higher than average, this will do no more than make up for the increased costs of harvesting due to heavy expenditure on overtime and increased breakages resulting from wet and tangled straw. While, therefore, on the zoo-acre mixed farm a loss of 25 per cent, of the corn will halve the farmer's profit, a similar loss on a purely arable farm will swallow up all the probable profit. A loss such as this is no more than farmers expect, and in most cases is no more than they can cope with, but this year, when it comes after the low yields of 1947 and the wet harvest of 1946, there are bound to be many indivi- duals in certain areas who are going to find it very hard to carry on.
Looked ai in this way the harvest of 1948, it is clear, is no national disaster. On the contrary, the weather has been particularly favourable for the production of milk and meat, the two commodities standing highest on the list of priorities. On the other hand, the psychological effect on all farmers who grow any corn at all is bad, and this is particularly unfortunate at a time when farmers are being asked to make extra effort. Furthermore, some individuals, small as a percentage of the total but large in terms of actual people, are facing serious economic difficulties, which are increased by the fact that this year's bad harvest follows upon two seasons which have particularly affected the same areas. If further evidence is needed to support this contention it can be found in the shape of rising overdrafts, falling prices for second-hand machinery, and the increasing number of farms which are coming on to the market.
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