POLITICS
If the Tories want to win the next election, they must stop approaching every issue with an open mouth
BRUCE ANDERSON
Mr Major has never been able to do that. Events and his own party have collaborated to ensure that he remained a provisional Premier, which is why he is in such political difficulties now. His troubles began with his election as Leader. The fall of Margaret Thatcher was the most dramatic event in modern British political history. After a period of sustained indiscipline, the Tory Parliamentary Party succeeded in over- throwing the greatest peacetime Prime Minister. The ensuing shock waves are still reverberating; the emotions are still raw. It was hardly surprising that the Tory Party was reluctant to settle down in harmony after such a blood-letting; there was never much chance of a coalition between Brutus and Mark Antony. In learning how to assassinate their leaders, Tory MPs had for- gotten how to follow them. Even if John Major had been a combination of Einstein, Wittgenstein, and Frankenstein's monster, he would have found it difficult to lead the post-1990 Tory Party. His problems were compounded because he was a persona short of a premier.
During the 1990 leadership election, there was an unspoken anxiety in the Major camp. After less than 18 months in high office, our candidate would be taking over the Premiership on the eve of a Gulf War, an almighty recession and a crucial set of Euro negotiations. It seemed an awesome gamble on inexperience. But there was one area in which we had no doubts. Mr Major was about to become the youngest Prime Minister since Rosebery and after only eleven and a half years in the Commons; a shorter Commons innings than any PM who had served there since at least the Great Reform Bill. Rosebery had been an Earl, educated at Eton and Christchurch who had bred Derby winners. John Major had left school at 16; his sole connection with the turf was a brief stint as an illegal bookies' look-out man. There was only one conclu- sion to be drawn from such a rapid ascent; Mr Major must be a political genius.
In office, the PM has confounded his sup- porters' expectations. On the substance of the big questions — to which he added Ire- land — his performance has been outstand- ing. But the politics has been lamentable. Here, his inexperience was a handicap.
Most premiers have developed a persona long before they reach Downing Street. Wil- son's pipe-smoking pragmatism; Callaghan's Dixon of Dock Green act; Thatcher as the iron lady — even Ted Heath had his boat and piano. They had all established a politi- cal idiom with which they were comfortable. Mr Major had not, nor — unlike all those predecessors — had he had any real experi- ence of political adversity.
Nor was he helped by his immediate pre- decessor's apotheosis. As Margaret Thatch- er was transformed from embattled history into golden age myth, the Tory Party's already tenuous grip on reality was further weakened, something which the lady her- self did not discourage. Mr Major would be wrestling with the great problems she had left him. He would also be achieving suc- cesses which had alluded her. But he was never able to convey this to the public or to his own backbenchers. Margaret Thatcher, meanwhile, seemed incapable of dining with Tory MPs without telling them how easy it had been in her day, and why was John being so wet? Even some of those who voted against her believed her.
Mr Major's problems were compounded by the nature of the recession. Previous recessions had been like earthquakes or famines; they seemed to occur in preor- dained geographical locations, which did not include the south of England. Reces- sions went with cloth caps and cobbled streets; they happened up north where the locals were used to them and would respond stoically, as long as they had drip- ping on their bread three times a week.
But the early Nineties recession was prin- cipally a southern one. It hit the comfort- able Tory-voting classes who were much less steady on parade than the muck-and- brass Tories from the north country. These southerners seemed to think that just because they had lost their jobs and their houses had been repossessed, they had an excuse for not voting Conservative. Then there was the ERM, where, yet again, Mr Major made things worse for himself by failing to offer an explanation.
In or outside the ERM, interest rates would have had to be more or less the same, at least until April 1992, to deal with infla- tion and political uncertainty. But the Gov- ernment's refusal to give its version of events allowed hostile commentators to revel in intellectual dishonesty, to the extent of claiming that the ERM caused the reces- sion. Inflation cannot be blamed on counter inflation. Mr Major has contributed to his own difficulties, but his faults are trivial in comparison to his virtues. He is as hon- ourable as he is unlucky, as decent as he is denigrated, as able as he is unappreciated. Yet in writing about him, it is hard to avoid obituary mode. I do not think that it is impossible for the Tories to win the next election, but there is one vast obstacle which must be surmounted before they can even try: themselves. In any sporting contest involving two teams and irrespective of the sides' potential merit, if one team is desper- ate to win, while the other does not care, it is easy to forecast the outcome. Some years ago, David Steel begged his colleagues not to approach every issue with an open mouth. It is a sign of the Tory Party's desperate cir- cumstances that advice from the Liberals is not only necessary, it is being ignored.
Unless this changes between now and the election, it will be almost impossible for Mr Major to get his message across. Even if the captain is scoring runs out in the middle, the spectators will not be paying attention unless the rest of the team stop trying to burn down the pavilion.
If Tory Ml's do shut up, there is just a chance. British politics has never been more volatile. We know that most voters are bored and irritated with the Govern- ment and would like a change, but as the election approaches, they will focus on the nature of that change. They may well con- clude that Labour is simultaneously insub- stantial and threatening. At present, Mr Blair's appeal is purely negative, which is why the support for him is a mile wide but only a yard deep. John Major knows all about fighting for survival. Against all odds, he is still there to fight an election. The odds are still against him, but he has beaten them before.
Previous page
