CHICAGO LINE-UP
SOMETHING of the intense excitement which is always generated in the United States 'in election year has filtered across the Atlantic, and the course of the Republican Party Convention, which opens- in Chicago next week, will be followed in this country with a more intelli- gent interest than has been given to any previous convention of any American party. There has never been a Presidential aspirant who was personally so well known in Britain as Mr. Eisenhower; President Roosevelt's personality may have made a deeper impact on Europe generally, but his voice, however encouraging, was always distant. Mr. Eisenhower's encourage- ment has been given on the spot. While it is by now generally realised that partisan cheers from Britain in the middle of an American party convention are as much taboo as applause between the movements of a symphony, there would be no mistaking the sigh of relief which would rise from4hese shores if Mr. Eisenhower won the noniination. But will he ? Senator Taft enters the contest with a considerable lead over Mr. Eisenhower. The rival claims for the delegates' allegiance are contradictory, but most independent assessments give nearly 500 to Taft and 400 to Eisenhower. There are 1,206 delegates altogether, and a simple majority, that is to say 604 votes, is required to win the nomination. But the origin of the delegates Is, for the purpose of an election, at least as important as their numbers. The Senator draws his main strength from those States which have a fairly stable political complexion—States which can be relied on to produce Democratic or Republican majorities in November. It is in the marginal States that Mr. Eisenhower's support is the strongest; and it is the marginal States which count in November. New York, which has the largest single vote in the electoral college, is sending an almost solidly pro-Eisenhower delegation to Chicago, and so are the hardly less important States of Massachusetts and New Jersey. On the assumption, therefore, that the Republicans want to provide the next President, Mr. Eisenhower still seems to be a far stronger candidate than Senator Taft. This assumption is confirmed by the latest public opinion polls. Yet the Taft supporters enter the convention with a jaunty confidence which can hardly be entirely assumed, while, the Eisenhower sup- porters are anxious. Their anxiety may be partly .due to the exaggerated optimism with which they embarked on the cam- paign; partly also to the prospect of a deadlock at the conven- tion which would result in neither of the two chief contestants emerging as candidate. If neither Senator Taft nor Mr. Eisenhower wins the nomination the choice would seem to lie between Governor- Warren and General MacArthur. Governor Warren has many merits, but none which appears to mark him as a more powerful vote-getter than Mr. Eisenhower. General MacArthur has many obvious shortcomings as a candidate; his age for one (he is 72; Taft is 63 and Eisenhower 62) ank,Still more important, the fact that the antipathy which he arouses is as fierce and widespread as the loyplty. If, as most Republicans are prepared to admit, the United States, need a sense of national unity in the next critical four years, then General MacArthur would be just about the worst candi- date the convention could put forward. Nevertheless General MacArthur will be at Chicago and will make the keynote speech (which will no doubt be a very stirring one), and there is a distinct possibility that the deadlocked delegates might be mesmerised into trusting their fortunes to the commanding figure of the General. But on balance the chances still favour Mr. Eisenhower. He has made mistakes in his campaign, but none which is irretrievable. The only unforgivable mistake he could make from the Republican point of view would be to win the nomination and not the Presidential election. But November is a long way off. Mr. Eisenhower's only serious disadvantage at Chicago is the fact that November is such a long way off that some of the delegates allay have forgotten that there is such a month this year.
Previous page
