Defence

The axeman cometh

David W.Wragg

Not the least of the uncertainties which have accompanied the arrival in office of the Wil son administration must be the future of Britain's defences. The electorate and MPs alike have been denied the usual annual Defence White Paper, with a substitute taking the form of a brief mention in the Budget, adding another £50 million to the £178 million cuts inflicted by Mr Barber, and a full scale defence review to appear in the early summer, and somehow find a way of implementing cuts of up to £1,000 million a year — if the strictures of the left are to be taken at full value.

After many years of neglect, while many of our NATO partners have also reduced their defence commitment and the Warsaw Pact has not only increased its strength in terms of numbers, but also vastly improved the quality of its equipment and added many new bases throughout the world, it is not easy to see where any cuts might land. Some think that it may be a question, finally, of deciding whether the British Army of the Rhine finally disappears or the Royal Navy is reduced to the level of a coastal defence force — a role to which it is currently ill-suited by virtue of the type of warship in service.

Speculation about withdrawal from Malta, Cyprus or Singapore only tends to highlight the fact that these bases account for only a minimal proportion of total defence expenditure. On the other hand, training in Cyprus is cheaper than in the UK, because of the virtual guarantee of good weather.

Such policies are hardly likely to please the United States nor Europe, although the Conservative Party might well find real criticism difficult in view of its own miserable record while in office.

The real danger today is that of repeating the mistakes of the ea0151 193US, with economic difficulties, a strong.tesire for peace and public boredom on defence leaving the country in a state in which defence is at a low ebb. In fact, a reduction in defence. expenditure might compound our economic problems, because defence expenditure might compound our economic problems, because defence

supports heavy industry, with a considerable employment and export benefit, and it is much more sensitive to official spending than, for example, the motor industry would be to consumer spending in the wake of a 'preelection' budget; the difference arises from the lack of mass production techniques in labour-intensive heavy industry.

A strong British and French expeditionary force sent into the Rhineland during the early 1930s might have prevented the waste of the second world war, and hence would have been cheaper in the long run. By this experience, one might argue that peace is best secured through strength, held in careful check, rather than brash weakness.

The airline industry, worried by its economic problems, wants a resumption of military trooping and supply flights by the industry, offering the Government a low cost alternative to the Royal Air Force. This must be tempting, but the temptation must be resisted. Times change, the airlines had relatively little inclusive tour work in the days when they handled service contracts, and a large number of aircraft and their owners were employed on this work. Now, they are merely hoping for work to fill in their less busy periods, without asking what will happen in the event of a crisis in mid-summer. Could they, with their fleet scattered at crowded European holiday resorts, rescue refugees from Bangladesh and move troops from Germany to Northern Ireland immediately? They could not! Even if they tried, what would then happen to the tourists?

There is some scope, however, for the armed forces following the American pattern of putting basic flying training out to contract with civilian schools, while major aircraft overhauls could be handled by industry rather than by RAF maintenance units, which are unpopular postings and costly. But the same can be said for the Royal Dockyards, cannot this work also go out to civil yards on competitive tender? Security is not the problem here, for private industry provides the equipment in the first place, so can it not help in the servicing?

The Royal Navy certainly does need the equipment which would enable it to act in the coastal defence and fisheries protection roles, instead of depending on slow and dated minesweepers, with one toothless fast patrol boat as well! But this should not mean that protection of our trade routes could be neglected. NATO does not even cover our shipping, on which we depend, as far as the Equator, stopping, as it does, at the Tropic of Cancer. Senior Royal Navy officers are not being rash in talking of the threat of submarine piracy, ships have disappeared mysteriously, no doubt sometimes for natural reasons, but there must be some doubt that this is always so. A small island, we could be brought to our knees by a Soviet submarine fleet ten times the size of Germany's in 1939.

One might consider the army in Germany as forward defence for this country and the United States, but this is the most expendable part of our armed forces since it would, at the most, still only take Russia three days to cross the Rhine. Germans near the border with East Germany like to see BAOR there, but if they really are so worried they 'should pressure their own leaders either to be more generous in offsetting the attendant balance of payments problem, or to make up the difference in military strength after our withdrawal themselves.

It is possible to argue only in favour of a single armed force, the Royal Navy, if £1,000 million is lopped off the present defence budget. Such a force, some three times its present strength, could include adequate fighter, maritime-reconnaissance and transport aircraft, with a greatly enlarged force of Royal Marines, helping partly to maintain overseas garrisons and partly to support strong local quasi-military forces in Northern Ireland,

where a army My aayn 4, force would be the ideal. er Suffering widespread cuts divided bet! a them, the armed forces will be even r' impotent than they are now. Howeve%feNii civilians employed by the Ministry of r Or will be high on the firing line this tallo Wilson might find a political backlash sle I to that felt by his Australian counterPa" from union leaders!

David Wragg's books include W°rid Forces and a Dictionary of Aviation a Speed in the Air.