It appears to be believed that the first step in
negotiations will be the conclusion of a peace between Servia and Turkey, but this is, to say the least, improbable, as the Russian Government, if it decides on war, will need Servia as one base of operations. It is more probable that Russia will endeavour to arrange terms with the Divan separately, and then submit them to a Conference of the Powers who signed the Treaty of Paris, but it is possible that the Conference may be arranged at once. The danger is that in such a Conference all parties may accept self-government as the principle to be secured, but may interpret it so as to afford no guarantee to the Christians of Turkey beyond the nominal right of appealing to European Consuls for pro- tection. The Russian Government is not likely, as we have argued elsewhere, to be contented with so imbecile a con- clusion, but the present Czar dreads war with a fervour which hampers all his diplomacy. The Turks, it may be taken for granted, will concede nothing except to force beyond some childish string of promises to be called a Constitution. They will not, for instance, either disarm their Mussulman subjects or arm the Christians, and so produce the equality which is the essential condition of any reform.
